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What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report

Published

1 year ago

November 7, 2024

Donald Trump

What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report

Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, following a dramatic victory over Kamala Harris, brings new questions for Nigeria’s economic outlook.

Trump’s economic policies, built around “America First,” prioritize domestic energy production, tariffs on imports, and pushing for low interest rates.

These policies could have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy, particularly in the areas of exchange rates, capital flows, inflation, and immigration. Below is an analysis of how these shifts could affect Nigeria’s economic landscape.

Key takeaways

Donald Trump’s second term could have sweeping implications for Nigeria’s economy.

A stronger dollar, potential capital outflows from the U.S., and low global oil prices may add to Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility, putting pressure on the naira and increasing inflation.

Immigration restrictions could reduce remittance flows, while geopolitical shifts might reduce U.S. support for Nigeria’s security and development needs.

Nigeria’s policymakers may need to consider alternative strategies, such as fostering regional trade, increasing non-oil exports, and pursuing structural reforms to counterbalance the potential challenges posed by Trump’s policies.”

Exchange Rate pressures from a Stronger Dollar

Trump’s policies could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, particularly if his administration imposes tariffs that increase demand for domestically produced goods and services.

A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging economies, such as Nigeria, to acquire foreign exchange, potentially straining the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s efforts to stabilize the naira.

Nigeria’s naira has depreciated by over 45% this year, and an appreciation of the dollar could further weaken the naira, impacting import costs, inflation, and purchasing power.

A stronger dollar also increases Nigeria’s debt-servicing costs, as many of Nigeria’s obligations are dollar-denominated.

Given Nigeria’s reliance on imports for fuel, raw materials, and consumer goods, additional dollar strength could heighten inflationary pressures on already high costs of living.

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Interest rates and Capital Flows into Nigeria

Historically, Trump has favoured a low-interest-rate environment, pushing the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy even during periods of economic growth.

During Trump’s initial presidency, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, peaking at 2.5% in 2018 before cutting them near zero by March 2020 to counteract the economic effects of COVID-19.

Trump’s renewed pressure for lower interest rates could again influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

If the Federal Reserve keeps rates low, this could, in theory, result in capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns in emerging markets.

However, if dollar strength persists and other global markets remain volatile, investor sentiment may still favour U.S. assets as a safe haven.

From 2016 to 2020, Nigeria attracted approximately $58.1 billion in capital importation, with 2019 seeing the highest inflows at $23 billion.

This was in part due to Nigeria offering high-yielding instruments like government bonds, which attracted foreign investors—including $4.69 billion from U.S. sources in that year.

Should Trump’s policies create a continued low-yield environment in the U.S., Nigeria could once again attract U.S.-based capital looking for higher returns, particularly if Nigeria maintains attractive interest rates on its debt instruments.

This capital inflow could help alleviate Nigeria’s foreign exchange pressures and support naira stability.

Inflation and Trump’s energy policies

Trump’s focus on reducing U.S. energy costs by increasing domestic oil production and drilling on federal lands could mean sustained low global oil prices. In his first term,

Trump’s policies and the COVID-19 pandemic led to WTI crude oil prices falling sharply to around $39.17 per barrel in 2020, compared to $65.20 per barrel in 2018.

As Nigeria heavily relies on oil exports for government revenue and foreign exchange, prolonged low oil prices could impact budget stability and government spending, with knock-on effects on inflation and economic growth.

Furthermore, Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could raise inflation within the U.S., which might trickle down to Nigeria by increasing the cost of imported goods and components.

Since the U.S. is among Nigeria’s top trading partners (N2.2 trillion in imports and N2.8 trillion in exports in the first half of 2024), a U.S.-led price increase could influence Nigeria’s inflation through costlier imports of essential goods like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products.

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Immigration and Nigerian diaspora impact

Trump’s return to office raises concerns for Nigerians regarding U.S. immigration policy. His administration previously imposed travel restrictions on Nigeria, citing national security risks, which disrupted the movement of students, professionals, and family members.

If Trump reinstates such policies, it could dampen the ability of Nigerians to pursue educational and work opportunities in the U.S.

This restriction would not only impact Nigerian nationals but could also reduce remittance flows, which are a major source of foreign exchange for Nigeria.

In recent years, remittances from the Nigerian diaspora have contributed over $20 billion annually to Nigeria’s economy, helping to offset FX shortages.

A decrease in remittance inflows would reduce domestic consumption and place additional pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which are already under strain.

Geopolitical dynamics and U.S. aid to Nigeria

Under Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, military aid and development assistance to African nations were deprioritized in favour of reducing overseas commitments.

For Nigeria, which partners with the U.S. in counter-terrorism and security, this could imply reduced military support.

Nigeria has relied on U.S. assistance to combat Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, so any reduction in support could undermine Nigeria’s regional security efforts.

A decline in aid could also impact Nigeria’s developmental projects and social programs funded by U.S. agencies.

With high poverty rates and a significant need for investment in health, education, and infrastructure, a reduction in aid would necessitate increased spending by the Nigerian government, potentially redirecting funds away from other critical areas.

Trade Policies and Nigerian Exports to the U.S.

Trump’s “Buy American” policy has often focused on reducing imports and increasing tariffs, which could impact Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S.

In the first half of 2024, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus with the U.S., with imports at N1.9 trillion and exports at N3.1 trillion.

If Trump’s tariff policies discourage U.S. imports from Nigeria, this could negatively affect Nigeria’s export earnings, particularly for sectors like oil, minerals, and agricultural products.

A decrease in exports to the U.S. might impact Nigeria’s current account balance, further complicating its exchange rate and foreign reserve challenges.

What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report

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FG Introduces 2026 Fiscal Policy, Slashes Tariffs on Vehicles, Food Items, Steel, Others

Published

3 minutes ago

April 11, 2026

Trends Admin

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun

FG Introduces 2026 Fiscal Policy, Slashes Tariffs on Vehicles, Food Items, Steel, Others

The Federal Government has released its 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures (FPM), introducing sweeping changes to import duties across multiple sectors, including vehicles, food commodities, industrial materials, and machinery, in a move aimed at boosting economic activity and easing cost pressures.

According to an official circular dated April 1, 2026, and signed by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, the new framework replaces the 2023 fiscal policy regime and establishes a revised national tariff schedule covering 127 tariff lines.

The government said the policy is designed to stimulate trade, support industrial growth, and improve affordability of essential goods, while also encouraging investment in local production capacity.

Major Tariff Cuts Across Key Sectors

Under the new structure, import duties on fully built passenger vehicles, including SUVs and station wagons, have been reduced to a total effective rate of 40%, down from about 70% under previous regimes.

Crude palm oil now attracts an effective tariff of 28.75%, while several food and consumer items also saw reductions, including rice, sugar, and salt.

Key revised rates include:

Rice (above 5kg packaging): 47.5%
Broken rice: 30%
Raw cane sugar: 55%–57.5%
Refined salt: 55%
Margarine: 40%

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The policy also reduces tariffs on construction and household goods such as envelopes, notebooks, ceramic tiles, and steel products, aimed at lowering input costs for manufacturers and developers.

Industrial and Infrastructure Materials

Significant reductions were also recorded in the industrial sector. Steel products such as zinc-coated sheets, steel coils, and rods now attract 35% duties, down from 45%, while certain machinery and equipment categories have been reduced to 0%–10% tariffs.

These include:

Railway locomotives (SKD/CKD): 0%
Cargo ships above 500 tonnes: 0%
Agricultural machinery: 0%
Medical and industrial equipment: 5%–10%

Officials say these changes are aimed at improving infrastructure development, manufacturing competitiveness, and healthcare access.

Transition Measures and New Tax Framework

To ease implementation, the government approved a 90-day grace period for importers who opened Form M before April 1, allowing them to clear goods at previous tariff rates.

However, authorities also announced that a new excise duty framework and green tax surcharge will take effect from July 1, 2026, as part of broader environmental and revenue reforms.

The green tax policy will target emissions-linked consumption patterns, although exemptions include:

Electric vehicles
Vehicles below 2000cc
Mass transit buses
Locally manufactured vehicles under specific tariff headings

Policy Objectives and Economic Impact

The Finance Ministry said the reforms are intended to balance revenue generation with economic relief, while aligning Nigeria’s trade policy with regional and global standards.

Analysts say the tariff cuts could help reduce import costs and ease inflationary pressure on consumers, but may also increase competitive pressure on local manufacturers who depend on protective tariffs.

The fiscal framework is part of broader reforms under the Tinubu administration to reposition Nigeria’s economy through tax restructuring, trade liberalisation, and industrial policy adjustments.

FG Introduces 2026 Fiscal Policy, Slashes Tariffs on Vehicles, Food Items, Steel, Others

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Kebbi Attack: Diocese Says 24 Killed, Churches, Mosque Burnt in Easter Raid

Published

10 minutes ago

April 11, 2026

Trends Admin

Kebbi Attack: Diocese Says 24 Killed, Churches, Mosque Burnt in Easter Raid

The Catholic Diocese of Kontagora has raised fresh alarm over escalating insecurity in northwestern Nigeria, confirming that 24 people were killed in a deadly Easter Sunday terrorist attack on Debe village in Shanga Local Government Area of Kebbi State.

The Diocese, in a detailed statement through its Yauri pastoral office, said the attack occurred on April 5 around 5 p.m. when suspected terrorists stormed the community, killing residents, burning homes, and destroying property in a coordinated assault that lasted several hours.

The victims reportedly included Christians, Muslims, and traditional worshippers, with attackers said to have targeted mostly men and young people in the village.

The Diocese also confirmed that places of worship were not spared, as a Catholic church, a mosque, residential houses, and shops were set ablaze during the raid, describing the incident as a “tragedy against humanity” rather than a religiously targeted attack.

According to security sources cited in local reports, the attackers are believed to have emerged from hideouts in the Wawa Forest axis of Niger State, particularly Borgu Local Government Area, an area long associated with armed bandit activity and cross-border movements.

The violence is said to be part of a wider pattern of coordinated attacks across border communities in Kebbi and Niger states, where villages such as Gebe, Kawara, Kalkami, Binuwa, and surrounding settlements have recently come under repeated raids.

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In earlier incidents, suspected bandits carried out night attacks on multiple villages in Shanga LGA, destroying homes and forcing mass displacement of residents.

The Kebbi State Police Command confirmed that joint security operations involving military units, tactical police teams, maritime police, and local vigilantes were deployed to restore order and pursue the attackers.

However, the Diocese disputed earlier official casualty figures, stating that while police initially reported about four deaths, further verification confirmed the death toll had risen to 24 persons.

“We want Nigeria and the international community to know what transpired in Debe. The confirmed number of fatalities is 24,” the Church said, calling for urgent intervention.

The statement also revealed a worsening humanitarian crisis, noting that at least 491 internally displaced persons (IDPs) are currently taking refuge at St. Dominic Parish in Yauri, where church resources are becoming overstretched.

“These displaced persons urgently need food, clean water, medical care, and shelter,” the Diocese warned, adding that ongoing insecurity has prevented many families from returning to their homes or burying their dead.

Community leaders also reported that the attack extended to nearby settlements, where markets, homes, and even traditional leadership compounds were destroyed, deepening fear across the region.

The Diocese urged the federal government led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kebbi State authorities to take urgent and decisive action to restore security and prevent further bloodshed.

It also called on humanitarian agencies and international partners to intervene, warning that the situation could worsen without coordinated relief and security response.

Meanwhile, security analysts say the repeated attacks underscore the persistent threat of banditry and rural terrorism in northwestern Nigeria, despite ongoing military operations in affected corridors.

Authorities have assured residents that security forces are intensifying operations in forested hideouts believed to be used by armed groups operating across state boundaries.

For now, many communities in Shanga LGA remain deserted, with survivors displaced and fear gripping border settlements as insecurity continues to escalate.

Kebbi Attack: Diocese Says 24 Killed, Churches, Mosque Burnt in Easter Raid

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FG Orders Immediate Withdrawal of Passports From Nigerians Who Renounced Citizenship

Published

22 minutes ago

April 11, 2026

Trends Admin

Immigration Boss and Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo with International Passport

FG Orders Immediate Withdrawal of Passports From Nigerians Who Renounced Citizenship

The Federal Government has directed the immediate withdrawal and deactivation of Nigerian international passports belonging to individuals who have formally and legally renounced their citizenship.

The directive was issued by the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, and conveyed through his media aide, Alao Babatunde, according to official government communications.

The order instructs the Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) to identify and deactivate all passports belonging to persons whose renunciation of Nigerian citizenship has been duly processed and approved by the President.

Officials clarified that the policy does not affect dual citizens or pending applications, but strictly applies to individuals whose citizenship renunciation has been completed under constitutional procedures.

The minister explained that once presidential approval is granted for renunciation, the affected individuals cease to be Nigerian citizens under the law, and therefore lose all rights associated with citizenship, including the use of Nigerian passports.

The policy is anchored on Section 29 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which provides that a citizen of full age who makes a declaration of renunciation, once registered and approved, shall no longer be recognised as a Nigerian citizen.

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According to the Interior Ministry, the possession of a Nigerian passport is a sovereign privilege reserved exclusively for citizens, and cannot be retained once citizenship is legally terminated.

The government said the move is part of broader ongoing passport and immigration reforms aimed at strengthening identity management, reducing document fraud, and enhancing border security.

Authorities added that the directive also seeks to improve the integrity of Nigeria’s travel documents system and prevent cases where non-citizens continue to benefit from Nigerian-issued identification.

“We will continue to strengthen systems that secure Nigeria’s borders, prevent identity fraud, preserve the sanctity of Nigerian citizenship, and facilitate legitimate travel,” Tunji-Ojo said.

The Nigeria Immigration Service has been tasked with enforcing the directive and ensuring immediate compliance across all relevant databases and passport control systems.

Security and policy analysts say the move aligns with global immigration practices where citizenship status directly determines eligibility for national travel documents.

However, legal experts note that enforcement must strictly follow due process, particularly in verifying official renunciation approvals issued through presidential authority.

The development comes amid wider reforms by the Tinubu administration to modernise Nigeria’s immigration system, identity verification framework, and border security architecture.