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What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report

Published

2 years ago

November 7, 2024

Donald Trump

What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report

Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, following a dramatic victory over Kamala Harris, brings new questions for Nigeria’s economic outlook.

Trump’s economic policies, built around “America First,” prioritize domestic energy production, tariffs on imports, and pushing for low interest rates.

These policies could have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy, particularly in the areas of exchange rates, capital flows, inflation, and immigration. Below is an analysis of how these shifts could affect Nigeria’s economic landscape.

Key takeaways

Donald Trump’s second term could have sweeping implications for Nigeria’s economy.

A stronger dollar, potential capital outflows from the U.S., and low global oil prices may add to Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility, putting pressure on the naira and increasing inflation.

Immigration restrictions could reduce remittance flows, while geopolitical shifts might reduce U.S. support for Nigeria’s security and development needs.

Nigeria’s policymakers may need to consider alternative strategies, such as fostering regional trade, increasing non-oil exports, and pursuing structural reforms to counterbalance the potential challenges posed by Trump’s policies.”

Exchange Rate pressures from a Stronger Dollar

Trump’s policies could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, particularly if his administration imposes tariffs that increase demand for domestically produced goods and services.

A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging economies, such as Nigeria, to acquire foreign exchange, potentially straining the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s efforts to stabilize the naira.

Nigeria’s naira has depreciated by over 45% this year, and an appreciation of the dollar could further weaken the naira, impacting import costs, inflation, and purchasing power.

A stronger dollar also increases Nigeria’s debt-servicing costs, as many of Nigeria’s obligations are dollar-denominated.

Given Nigeria’s reliance on imports for fuel, raw materials, and consumer goods, additional dollar strength could heighten inflationary pressures on already high costs of living.

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Interest rates and Capital Flows into Nigeria

Historically, Trump has favoured a low-interest-rate environment, pushing the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy even during periods of economic growth.

During Trump’s initial presidency, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, peaking at 2.5% in 2018 before cutting them near zero by March 2020 to counteract the economic effects of COVID-19.

Trump’s renewed pressure for lower interest rates could again influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

If the Federal Reserve keeps rates low, this could, in theory, result in capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns in emerging markets.

However, if dollar strength persists and other global markets remain volatile, investor sentiment may still favour U.S. assets as a safe haven.

From 2016 to 2020, Nigeria attracted approximately $58.1 billion in capital importation, with 2019 seeing the highest inflows at $23 billion.

This was in part due to Nigeria offering high-yielding instruments like government bonds, which attracted foreign investors—including $4.69 billion from U.S. sources in that year.

Should Trump’s policies create a continued low-yield environment in the U.S., Nigeria could once again attract U.S.-based capital looking for higher returns, particularly if Nigeria maintains attractive interest rates on its debt instruments.

This capital inflow could help alleviate Nigeria’s foreign exchange pressures and support naira stability.

Inflation and Trump’s energy policies

Trump’s focus on reducing U.S. energy costs by increasing domestic oil production and drilling on federal lands could mean sustained low global oil prices. In his first term,

Trump’s policies and the COVID-19 pandemic led to WTI crude oil prices falling sharply to around $39.17 per barrel in 2020, compared to $65.20 per barrel in 2018.

As Nigeria heavily relies on oil exports for government revenue and foreign exchange, prolonged low oil prices could impact budget stability and government spending, with knock-on effects on inflation and economic growth.

Furthermore, Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could raise inflation within the U.S., which might trickle down to Nigeria by increasing the cost of imported goods and components.

Since the U.S. is among Nigeria’s top trading partners (N2.2 trillion in imports and N2.8 trillion in exports in the first half of 2024), a U.S.-led price increase could influence Nigeria’s inflation through costlier imports of essential goods like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products.

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Immigration and Nigerian diaspora impact

Trump’s return to office raises concerns for Nigerians regarding U.S. immigration policy. His administration previously imposed travel restrictions on Nigeria, citing national security risks, which disrupted the movement of students, professionals, and family members.

If Trump reinstates such policies, it could dampen the ability of Nigerians to pursue educational and work opportunities in the U.S.

This restriction would not only impact Nigerian nationals but could also reduce remittance flows, which are a major source of foreign exchange for Nigeria.

In recent years, remittances from the Nigerian diaspora have contributed over $20 billion annually to Nigeria’s economy, helping to offset FX shortages.

A decrease in remittance inflows would reduce domestic consumption and place additional pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which are already under strain.

Geopolitical dynamics and U.S. aid to Nigeria

Under Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, military aid and development assistance to African nations were deprioritized in favour of reducing overseas commitments.

For Nigeria, which partners with the U.S. in counter-terrorism and security, this could imply reduced military support.

Nigeria has relied on U.S. assistance to combat Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, so any reduction in support could undermine Nigeria’s regional security efforts.

A decline in aid could also impact Nigeria’s developmental projects and social programs funded by U.S. agencies.

With high poverty rates and a significant need for investment in health, education, and infrastructure, a reduction in aid would necessitate increased spending by the Nigerian government, potentially redirecting funds away from other critical areas.

Trade Policies and Nigerian Exports to the U.S.

Trump’s “Buy American” policy has often focused on reducing imports and increasing tariffs, which could impact Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S.

In the first half of 2024, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus with the U.S., with imports at N1.9 trillion and exports at N3.1 trillion.

If Trump’s tariff policies discourage U.S. imports from Nigeria, this could negatively affect Nigeria’s export earnings, particularly for sectors like oil, minerals, and agricultural products.

A decrease in exports to the U.S. might impact Nigeria’s current account balance, further complicating its exchange rate and foreign reserve challenges.

What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report

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Police Nab Bandit Logistics Supplier, Recover 109 Ammunition Rounds in Kano

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July 15, 2026

Trends Admin

Police Nab Bandit Logistics Supplier, Recover 109 Ammunition Rounds in Kano

The Kano State Police Command has arrested a suspected bandit logistics supplier and recovered an AK-47 magazine loaded with 30 rounds of live ammunition, an additional 79 rounds, suspected military uniforms, and other incriminating items in a swift operation at Rimaye Village, Bichi Local Government Area.

The suspect, identified as Mohammed Isah Haruna, 28, of Dan Dinshe Yamma Quarters in Dala Local Government Area, was arrested on Saturday, July 12, 2026, at about 6:00 p.m. following a credible tip-off from a vigilant resident who reported seeing a man dressed in a suspected military uniform at Rimaye Village in Bichi LGA.

The Commissioner of Police, Ibrahim Adamu Bakori, disclosed the development in a statement issued by the Command’s spokesperson, CSP Abdullahi Haruna Kiyawa. According to the statement, operatives from the Bichi Police Division, working in collaboration with members of the Rimawa community, swiftly responded to the tip-off and intercepted the suspect. During a search of his bag, police recovered one AK-47 magazine loaded with 30 rounds of live ammunition, an additional 79 rounds of AK-47 ammunition bringing the total to 109 rounds, two sets of suspected military uniforms, three military caps, a suspected fake military identity card, a National Identity Card, a National Identification Number (NIN) slip, a voter’s card, four Automated Teller Machine (ATM) cards, and a pair of desert boots.

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During interrogation, the suspect confessed that he was in the area to deliver the recovered items to bandits operating in the bush. The police said the suspect remains in custody while a discreet investigation is ongoing to identify and apprehend other members of the suspected criminal network. The case will be charged to court upon the conclusion of the investigation.

Commissioner Bakori commended members of the Rimawa community for their vigilance and prompt report, describing the arrest as a testament to the effectiveness of community policing. “This arrest underscores the importance of community partnership in policing. We appreciate the Rimawa Community and all good people of Kano for their support. Security is a collective responsibility,” the commissioner said.

The Command reaffirmed its commitment to intelligence-led and community-based policing across Kano State’s 44 local government areas in line with the directives of the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Rilwan Disu. It also urged residents to continue providing credible information to security agencies to support efforts aimed at combating crime and enhancing public safety. In case of emergencies or to report suspicious activities, the command can be contacted via 08032419755, 08123821575, or 09029292926.

Police Nab Bandit Logistics Supplier, Recover 109 Ammunition Rounds in Kano

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Lagos Police Bust N1.02bn Vehicle Fraud Syndicate, Recover Exotic Vehicles

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July 15, 2026

Trends Admin

Lagos State Commissioner of Police, Tijani Fatai, (second from the left), flanked by other officers during a press briefing on Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Lagos Police Bust N1.02bn Vehicle Fraud Syndicate, Recover Exotic Vehicles

The Lagos State Police Command has uncovered a sophisticated vehicle fraud syndicate accused of defrauding automobile dealers of exotic vehicles worth over N1.02 billion through deception, dud and post-dated cheques. Detectives have recovered several luxury vehicles and launched a manhunt for the alleged ringleader, Otunba Olamilekan Ismail, who is currently at large.

The Commissioner of Police in Lagos State, Tijani Fatai, disclosed the development on Tuesday while briefing journalists at the command headquarters in Ikeja on recent breakthroughs recorded by the command. According to him, detectives at the State Criminal Investigation Department (SCID), Panti, harmonised three separate complaints initially reported independently by different victims after discovering striking similarities in the suspects’ operational methods. The harmonised investigations revealed a coordinated criminal network specialising in conspiracy, obtaining goods under false pretences, fraudulent conversion, stealing, and the issuance of dud cheques.

Investigations established that the syndicate targeted reputable vehicle dealers by falsely claiming they were purchasing vehicles on behalf of influential clients or for prominent politicians in Abuja. The suspects allegedly issued post-dated or dud cheques as payment before quickly transferring the vehicles to third parties and concealing the identities of the masterminds through intermediaries. The fraud involved vehicles valued at more than N1.02 billion, including seven luxury vehicles worth about N700 million and 10 Toyota Hiace buses valued at N320 million. Investigators also linked the syndicate to another 12 exotic vehicles allegedly obtained through similar means from different dealers.

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In the first case, a suspect identified as Muritala confessed to obtaining vehicles under the false promise that payment would be made after their disposal. During interrogation, he implicated Fatai Balogun, popularly known as “Eleku,” who was already under investigation for a similar offence. Balogun later admitted his involvement and told investigators that the vehicles had been delivered to Otunba Olamilekan Ismail, also known as Otunba Jaji, who is currently at large. Balogun claimed Olamilekan promised him a 30 per cent commission from the proceeds of the vehicles.

Using intelligence-led operations and the AUTOREG vehicle tracking platform, detectives recovered several vehicles linked to the syndicate. The recovered vehicles include a 2010 Toyota RAV4, a 2007 Toyota Highlander, a 2017 Toyota Highlander, a 2020 Toyota Hiace bus, a 2018 Ford Edge SUV, and two 2016 Toyota Hiace buses.

In the second case, three complainants accused Balogun, Ismail Olamilekan, and others of conspiracy, fraudulent conversion, issuing dud cheques, and stealing. The suspects fraudulently obtained seven vehicles worth about N700 million after falsely claiming they were supplying them to prominent politicians in Abuja. Payment was made with post-dated cheques, all of which were dishonoured when presented at the bank. The principal suspect admitted selling the vehicles to different buyers.

In the third case, Balogun, Bashiru Babatunde, and others allegedly fraudulently acquired 10 Toyota Hiace buses valued at N320 million after claiming they were acting on behalf of one Alhaji Ismaila and another suspect identified simply as Segun, both of whom remain at large. The cheque issued in payment was returned due to insufficient funds. Detectives recovered eight of the buses, although they had sustained damage, while two buses valued at N56.5 million are still missing.

One of the suspects, a 68-year-old man, denied knowing the vehicles were fraudulently obtained, claiming his role was limited to introducing buyers for a 30 per cent commission. The police said the suspects remain in custody while investigations continue to identify and arrest other members of the criminal network. All cases will be charged to court upon the conclusion of investigations.

Commissioner Fatai commended the detectives for their thorough work and advised vehicle dealers to exercise due diligence before releasing vehicles, especially where transactions involve post-dated cheques or unknown agents. “The success of this investigation underscores our commitment to dismantling organised criminal syndicates operating within and beyond Lagos State. All suspects connected with these cases will be apprehended and prosecuted,” he said.

Lagos Police Bust N1.02bn Vehicle Fraud Syndicate, Recover Exotic Vehicles

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Police Rescue Three Kidnapped AAU Students, Neutralise Suspect in Fierce Gun Battle

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July 15, 2026

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Police Rescue Three Kidnapped AAU Students, Neutralise Suspect in Fierce Gun Battle

The Edo State Police Command, in a coordinated joint operation with the Nigerian Army, the Edo State Security Corps, and local hunters, has successfully rescued three students of Ambrose Alli University (AAU), Ekpoma, who were abducted by gunmen in the Esan West Local Government Area of the state.

The students were kidnapped on Sunday, July 12, 2026, during a brazen attack in the Ujemen G.T. Extension area of Ekpoma. The rescued students were identified as Praise Obagbalu, 18; Favour Okoroji, 21; and Balogun Precious, 19. Tragically, a 24-year-old 300-level undergraduate, Peter Ekpen Adolor, was murdered during the assault. According to police findings, Adolor attempted to open a hostel gate to investigate a distress scream outside and was shot in the abdomen by one of the assailants. He was rushed to Eguavoen Hospital, Ekpoma, where he was confirmed dead by the doctor on duty.

The Edo State Commissioner of Police, Monday Agbonika, revealed the news on Tuesday during a press briefing at the Nigeria Police Divisional Headquarters in Ekpoma. Represented by the Police Public Relations Officer, ASP Eno Ikoedem, the commissioner stated that the command received a distress alert at about 9:00 p.m. on the day of the incident indicating that armed individuals believed to be kidnappers had assaulted the area and abducted the students. Upon receipt of the report, the commissioner promptly ordered the deployment of tactical teams and nearby police divisions for a collaborative rescue mission that included the Nigerian Army, the Edo State Security Corps, and local hunters. The team subsequently conducted coordinated bush-combing and intelligence-led operations aimed at rescuing the hostages unharmed and apprehending the perpetrators.

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The rescue mission took place in the early hours of Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at about 6:00 a.m., when the joint security team located the kidnappers’ hideout in Erah Forest. Security forces engaged the suspects in a fierce gun battle, with the superior tactical response of the operatives forcing the kidnappers to abandon their captives and flee. One suspected kidnapper was neutralised during the operation, while another was apprehended with serious gunshot injuries. The three kidnapped students were rescued alive and rushed to the hospital for medical attention. According to the police, the operation resulted in the seizure of three AK-47 rifles with magazines, 36 rounds of 7.62mm live ammunition, five mobile phones, two power banks, one Red Cross bag, and one charger.

The commissioner stated that operations are ongoing to apprehend the fleeing members of the notorious gang that specialised in kidnapping in Ekpoma and its environs, ensuring that they are brought to justice. He commended the bravery, professionalism, and resilience of officers and personnel of the Edo State Police Command, the Nigerian Army, the Edo State Security Corps, and local hunters whose joint efforts led to the successful operation. He also appreciated the support of the Edo State Government and members of the public for providing timely and credible information that aided the operation.

Addressing journalists after their rescue, the three students recounted that they were held deep inside the forest by their captors, who repeatedly moved them from one location to another while demanding that they contact their relatives to raise ransom. They expressed gratitude to the joint security team, stating that they were eventually rescued without any ransom being paid.