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Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

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Dangote raises petrol price 6.7% to N1,350/litre

Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

Nigeria’s petroleum product exports have surged nearly sevenfold since 2023, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery playing a major role in the country’s rapid shift from dependence on imported refined products to increased domestic supply and exports.

The latest figures from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of 79,000 bpd in 2023.

The EIA based its assessment on shipping data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa Analytics, which showed that about 350,000 bpd of the products shipped during the second quarter were exported. That compares with an annual average of just 46,000 bpd in 2023.

The dramatic increase has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the international refined petroleum market, with the EIA attributing much of the growth to the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery in January 2024.

The 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, has significantly increased Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and enabled the country to produce larger volumes of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other refined products.

“With increased supply of petroleum products in Nigeria from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA said.

Before the Dangote refinery began operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products to domestic and international destinations, according to the EIA.

The increase in shipments accelerated after the Dangote facility commenced operations and received another boost following the completion of maintenance and expansion work in February 2026.

The work increased the refinery’s crude distillation capacity from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, allowing the facility to process more crude and increase the volume of refined products available for domestic consumption and export.

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The rise in production has coincided with a sharp decline in Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. Seaborne imports, which were close to 400,000 bpd in 2023, fell to less than 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, according to the EIA.

At the same time, the volume of petroleum products transported between Nigerian ports has increased substantially.

Intra-Nigerian petroleum shipments reached 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and only 33,000 bpd in 2023.

The increase indicates that more refined products are being distributed by sea within Nigeria, particularly from coastal refining and storage facilities to other parts of the country.

Nigeria’s growing refining capacity has also opened up greater opportunities in overseas markets, particularly Europe.

EIA data showed that Nigerian seaborne petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026. This was up from 40,000 bpd in 2025 and 15,000 bpd in 2023, representing an increase of roughly 767 per cent over the 2023 level.

Nigeria also increased shipments to other African markets. Exports to African destinations outside Nigeria reached nearly 120,000 bpd in the second quarter, compared with 89,000 bpd in 2025.

The country also shipped significant volumes of petroleum products to Asia and Oceania, further demonstrating the expanding reach of Nigeria’s refined fuel exports.

The EIA said the growth occurred partly amid disruptions to petroleum product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which created opportunities for alternative suppliers as some international markets faced tighter supplies.

The development marks a significant change in Nigeria’s petroleum trade. For decades, the country exported crude oil while importing substantial quantities of refined products because its domestic refineries operated below capacity or remained shut for extended periods.

The Dangote refinery has altered that pattern by increasing the volume of refined products available within Nigeria while creating surplus volumes for export.

The EIA had previously reported that Nigeria’s petroleum product exports almost quadrupled in 2024 following the Dangote refinery’s commencement of operations, rising to an average of 146,000 bpd from 46,000 bpd in 2023.

The refinery’s growing contribution is also coming as its owners prepare for another major expansion. Dangote Group plans to add a second 750,000-bpd crude distillation unit by 2028, which would further increase the complex’s potential refining capacity.

The company is also preparing for a potential initial public offering (IPO). Recent reports indicate that Dangote Refinery is targeting an October 2026 IPO as investors continue to assess the refinery’s crude supply arrangements, production costs and long-term growth prospects.

Despite the significant rise in domestic refining, the refinery still relies partly on imported crude oil to maintain operations. Recent reports indicate that between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s crude supply currently comes from imports.

Nevertheless, the latest EIA data show that the refinery has become an increasingly important component of Nigeria’s downstream oil sector, contributing to higher domestic product availability and a substantial increase in exports.

The development could strengthen Nigeria’s role as a major supplier of refined petroleum products in Africa, particularly as demand for fuels continues to grow across the continent.

For Nigeria, the combination of rising exports, falling imports and increasing domestic shipments represents a major transformation in the country’s petroleum products market.

The latest figures therefore underline the growing economic significance of the Dangote Refinery and its potential to reshape Nigeria’s position in both the domestic and international petroleum market.

Dangote Refinery drives sevenfold surge in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports

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Fitch Gives Tinubu Fresh Economic Boost as Nigeria’s Outlook Turns Positive

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October 10, 2026

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Fitch Gives Tinubu Fresh Economic Boost as Nigeria’s Outlook Turns Positive
Fitch Gives Tinubu Fresh Economic Boost as Nigeria’s Outlook Turns Positive

Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s economic outlook from stable to positive, citing improvements in foreign exchange reserves, monetary policy, exchange rate reforms and moderating inflation under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The international credit rating agency announced the decision on Friday, October 9, 2026, while affirming Nigeria’s long-term issuer default ratings at ‘B’. The revised outlook signals the possibility of a future credit rating upgrade if the country sustains its economic reforms and strengthens its financial position.

The Federal Government disclosed the development on Saturday through the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, who described the assessment as an endorsement of the administration’s economic reform programme.

Fitch’s decision reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic policy framework and external financial position. The agency also expressed confidence that the government would maintain its reform momentum despite the approach of the 2027 general elections.

One of the key factors behind the positive outlook is the significant improvement in Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, which reportedly reached $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared with approximately $32 billion in mid-April 2024.

Fitch attributed the increase to stronger activity in the formal foreign exchange market, portfolio investment inflows, higher export receipts and remittances from Nigerians living abroad.

The agency projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would reach 6.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026. It also expects foreign exchange reserves to cover approximately 6.3 months of current external payments by the end of the year, providing a stronger buffer against external economic shocks.

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Nigeria’s economic growth prospects also informed the revised outlook. Fitch forecast that the country’s real GDP would expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from 4.0 per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028.

The agency expects non-oil activities to remain a major driver of economic expansion, reflecting the importance of sectors beyond crude oil to Nigeria’s long-term economic prospects.

On inflation, Fitch projected average annual inflation of 15.4 per cent in 2026, significantly below the levels recorded in 2024. It attributed the expected moderation partly to greater stability in the naira and the effects of restrictive monetary policy.

However, the agency cautioned that inflation would remain high compared with countries with similar credit ratings, meaning that the cost of living and pressure on household budgets would continue to pose challenges.

Developments in the oil sector also contributed to the improved assessment. Fitch reported that crude oil production, excluding condensates, increased by 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, while output reportedly met Nigeria’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day from May.

The expansion of domestic refining capacity, particularly the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery and the rehabilitation of other facilities, has also helped reduce reliance on imported refined petroleum products and associated foreign exchange demand.

The Federal Government attributed the improved outlook to major policy decisions introduced under Tinubu, including the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign exchange market reforms and changes to the tax system.

Oyedele said the administration would continue implementing the reforms to reduce Nigeria’s cost of borrowing, attract private investment and encourage job creation.

The government also pledged to sustain a transparent, market-reflective foreign exchange regime, improve tax administration, strengthen debt management and increase non-oil revenue.

Despite the positive assessment, Fitch identified several risks that could limit Nigeria’s economic progress. These include weak governance indicators, dependence on hydrocarbons, persistent inflation, security challenges and low government revenue relative to the size of the economy.

The agency also projected that Nigeria’s general government fiscal deficit would widen to 3.6 per cent of GDP in 2026 amid spending pressures. Although tax reforms could improve revenue collection, implementation challenges may limit the gains.

Fitch forecast that general government debt would average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, below the 56 per cent median for countries in the ‘B’ rating category.

The positive outlook does not amount to an immediate upgrade of Nigeria’s credit rating. Rather, it indicates that Fitch could raise the rating in the future if economic reforms continue, macroeconomic stability improves and fiscal pressures ease.

The latest assessment follows other positive developments in Nigeria’s credit standing in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook on the country to positive in August, according to the Federal Government.

For the Tinubu administration, the latest Fitch decision provides an important boost to its economic reform agenda. However, the ultimate test will be whether improvements in economic indicators translate into tangible benefits for Nigerians through lower inflation, stronger purchasing power, increased employment and sustainable business growth.

 

Fitch Gives Tinubu Fresh Economic Boost as Nigeria’s Outlook Turns Positive

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Electric Mobility: Spiro Unveils Expansion Plan, Names Nigeria New MD

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October 9, 2026

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Electric Mobility: Spiro Unveils Expansion Plan, Names Nigeria New MD

Spiro, Africa’s leading electric mobility company, is stepping up plans to expand its footprint in Nigeria, strengthen its battery-swapping infrastructure and deepen partnerships to make electric motorcycles more accessible and affordable to riders.

The company unveiled the growth strategy at the second edition of its Media Connect event in Lagos, where it formally introduced its new Country Head and Managing Director, Mr Prasad Sane, who will lead its operations and expansion drive in the country.

Sane said Spiro would consolidate its presence in Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states while exploring opportunities to extend its operations to additional markets, as it seeks to accelerate Nigeria’s transition to cleaner and more sustainable transportation.

The event brought together journalists covering business, technology, mobility and sustainability to discuss the company’s progress, infrastructure development and long-term ambitions for Nigeria’s electric mobility market.

Addressing the gathering, Sane said the company was moving beyond the deployment of electric motorcycles to building an integrated mobility ecosystem designed to improve riders’ earnings, reduce operating costs and create economic opportunities.

“Today is about progress, partnership and purpose. A year ago, we shared our vision for electric mobility in Nigeria. Today, we are demonstrating tangible results and a clear path forward,” he said.

He added that his mandate was to make Spiro one of the most trusted, affordable and accessible electric mobility solutions for Nigerians, beginning with its existing focus markets.

“My mandate is simple: to make Spiro the most trusted, affordable and accessible electric mobility solution for Nigerians, beginning with Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states.

“We are moving beyond electric bikes to build a complete ecosystem centred on our promise of ‘Energy on the Move’,” Sane stated.

A major pillar of the company’s strategy is its battery-swapping technology, which allows riders to exchange depleted batteries for fully charged ones in under a minute, reducing downtime and eliminating the need to wait for conventional recharging.

According to Sane, the model offers riders an alternative to rising fuel and maintenance costs while supporting efforts to reduce carbon emissions and improve the economics of commercial motorcycle operations.

“Electric mobility is no longer the future. It is the present, and Nigeria is poised to lead the transition,” he said.

Under its expansion plan, Spiro intends to accelerate the deployment of battery-swapping stations and service centres across Lagos, Ogun and Oyo states to improve accessibility, operational efficiency and customer support.

The company also plans to extend its geographical reach beyond the three states, bringing its electric motorcycles and related services to more Nigerian markets.

Another priority is strengthening partnerships with financial institutions, logistics companies and rider communities to improve access to electric motorcycles and its Battery-as-a-Service solutions.

The approach is expected to support wider adoption by riders who may face financial barriers to acquiring electric motorcycles outright, while helping businesses explore cleaner and potentially more cost-effective transportation options.

Spiro also plans to scale up local assembly operations, technical training and after-sales support, with a focus on creating employment opportunities, particularly for young Nigerians and women.

The company said the measures would help strengthen its operational capacity while developing local skills and supporting the growth of Nigeria’s electric mobility ecosystem.

The Media Connect event featured live product demonstrations and operational showcases, alongside the unveiling of the Spiro Ekon M1 Version 3, highlighting the company’s efforts to develop its electric motorcycle offerings for the Nigerian market.

Spiro, which received the West Africa Sustainable Award (WASA), is positioning its expansion around electric motorcycles and battery-swapping infrastructure as it seeks to contribute to the growth of sustainable mobility across Nigeria.

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NNPCL: We Introduced ₦66 Fuel Discount Before FG’s Announcement

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October 9, 2026

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NNPCL: We Introduced ₦66 Fuel Discount Before FG’s Announcement

NNPCL: We Introduced ₦66 Fuel Discount Before FG’s Announcement

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has said it introduced a ₦66-per-litre petrol discount on October 1, before the Federal Government announced a separate fuel price-relief measure aimed at cushioning Nigerians against rising petrol prices.

The national oil company said the initial discount was introduced to commemorate Nigeria’s 66th Independence Anniversary and would remain in effect until October 31, 2026, at NNPC Retail filling stations nationwide.

NNPCL’s clarification followed the Federal Government’s announcement of a 30-day petrol discount arrangement on October 8, under which the company’s retail arm would temporarily forgo its profit margin and sell petrol at cost to provide relief to consumers.

In a statement issued on Friday, October 9, NNPCL’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, said the company’s earlier discount was a customer-relief initiative and should not be interpreted as a restoration of petrol subsidy.

“Before the announcement, NNPC Limited had introduced a sales discount on 1 October 2026 to commemorate Nigeria’s 66th Independence Anniversary. This will now continue until 31 October 2026 across NNPC Retail stations nationwide,” the company said.

NNPCL explained that the initiative was designed to ease the financial pressure on motorists and other customers amid rising global crude oil prices and their impact on domestic petrol costs.

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The company stressed that the discount applied to its retail outlets and did not establish a uniform petrol price nationwide or change the market-based pricing framework governing petroleum products.

It also urged Nigerians not to confuse the temporary price reduction with the return of the fuel subsidy regime, which the Federal Government ended in May 2023.

The Federal Government’s separate intervention, announced by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, provides for NNPC Retail to forgo its retail profit margin for an initial 30-day period. Public transport operators are to receive priority under the arrangement.

The government has maintained that the new measure is not a subsidy because the discount is to be absorbed through NNPC Retail’s profit margin rather than funded by public revenue.

NNPCL said it would continue working with the Federal Government and other stakeholders to help cushion the impact of elevated fuel prices on households, businesses and the wider economy.

The clarification comes amid mounting concern over petrol prices and transportation costs, which have increased the financial burden on Nigerian households and businesses.

The company reaffirmed its commitment to reliable fuel supply, responsible customer service and clear communication about the scope and duration of its pricing initiatives.

NNPCL: We Introduced ₦66 Fuel Discount Before FG’s Announcement

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