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Dollar Selloff Temporary, Be Wary In Coming Weeks — Analysts

Published

4 years ago

November 14, 2022

Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today: Naira Holds Steady as Fuel Importer Demand Mounts

The appreciation of the naira witnessed in the black market segment of the foreign exchange market towards the end of last week has been described as a temporary reprieve by analysts, who warned that it may depreciate in the coming weeks.

The naira, since Wednesday, last week, gained between N200 and N240 against a dollar. The dollar was exchanged for N900, N920 and N940, depending on the location or volume until the evening of Wednesday, last week, when it began to drop.

As at the time of filing in this report, a dollar was exchanged for between N640 and N660.

While a cross section of analysts, who spoke to Daily Independent, believe that the appreciation was as a result of the backlash of the panic buying witnessed in the last two weeks due to the reaction to the plan of the CBN to redesign three naira denominations, others said it may be the handiwork of the CBN to calm the situation.

Just as the theory of supply and demand helps in determining prices in a free market, rising demand and improved supply have contributed to moderating rate.

There have been questions about what triggered the improved supply of FX in the black market last week. However, there were reports that the U.S. will restrict the acceptance of dollars printed below 2021, to checkmate the dollar stockpile in Africa.

This speculation put some FX hoarders on their feet, who do not want to be caught unawares, incentivising them to convert their FX for naira.

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There have been concerns in the past week by analysts that the fall of the local currency in the past weeks was rather speculative than intrinsic.

They claimed that the move by the anti-graft agency to arrest traders selling the U.S. dollar at a higher rate was aimed at serving as a deterrent to others, whilst discouraging currency speculation.

According to black market operators, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar appreciated by 8.72 percent on Friday, November 11, 2022, to close at N660/$1 from N700/$1 recorded on Thursday.

In the last four days, the local currency recorded significant gains against the dollar from a record low of N920/$1 recorded in the previous week. The exchange rate has now touched its highest level since August 19, 2022. It is worth noting that the rate varies across various locations and depend on the transaction volume.

However, the naira closed against the dollar at N446.1/$1 at the I&E window on Friday. This represents a slight depreciation of 0.1 percent in contrast to N445.67/$1 that was recorded in the previous trading session.

FX turnover at the official market fell slightly by 3.29 percent to $89.95 million on Thursday, compared to $93.01 million that was traded on Wednesday.

Nigeria’s external reserve declined by 0.07 percent to stand at $37.247 billion as of November 9, 2022, in contrast to $37.272 billion recorded as of the previous day.

Furthermore, an exchange rate of N447/$1 was the highest rate recorded during intra-day trading before it settled at N446.1/$1, while it traded as low as N415/$1 during intra-day trading.

A total of $89.95 million in FX value was traded at the Investors and Exporters window on Thursday, which is 3.29 percent lower than the $93.01 million traded on Wednesday.

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In conversations with several blackmarkettradersattheweekend, Daily Independent gathered that the dollar was selling within N700/$ and N650/$ for cash transactions, representing about a 30 percent gain from N900/$1 recorded the previous weekend.

These traders attributed the sudden improvement in the local currency to eased demand and increased inflows of FX in the market.

Mr. Sanni Mohammad, a forex trader in Lagos, said, “The changes in the rate are really very sudden, but it is as a result of increased dollars in the market compared to the high demand in the previous week.”

Another trader, Mohammed Mandara, opined they have seen increased supply and very few people are buying due to fear that the exchange rate could appreciate further.

Sources also indicate there was the injection of forex in the market by the central bank even though there is no official record backing this claim.

FX traders attributed the changes in the exchange rate to the decline in the demand for dollars in the market.

Malam Ilyasu Gindi at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport said that the demand for FX has decreased significantly compared to what it was in the last two weeks.

“On Friday morning, I bought dollars at the rate of N720/$1, and by evening, I bought at the rate of N670/$1 because a lot of people are now bringing dollars into the market to sell,” he said.

Oladejo Emmanuel, an economist, is of the opinion that there must be a behind the scene intervention by the apex bank to tame the trend that had characterised the black market segment and bring a sudden calm into the economy.

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He said, “If you noticed, you will see that the drop of about N200 on Thursday was so sudden and must have been influenced by higher intervention and I suspect the CBN or its agents”.

Matthew Ogagavworia, a financial analyst, told Daily Independent that the sudden appreciation might have been as a result of several factors.

He said, “One factor is that of Nigerians who speculated that the dollar will continue to rise because most illicit funds will find their way to BDCs. Some of them went on their own and brought in their genuine money in anticipation that the dollar will soon rise beyond N1000.

“The sudden drop we are seeing could be as a result of the slowdown in commercial activities due to the approach of year end. Most traders do cool their demand for forex for the purpose of import as the year runs to an end.

“There is also the expectation that once a new government comes in after the election, the atmosphere may change and the naira may gain confidence and you will not be able to sell the dollar even at the price you bought it.

“We are also faced with the possibility that the CBN’s spotlight on the activities of BDC operators to prevent them becoming a dumping ground for illicit money stashed in drums and water tankers could be responsible.

“I suspect these BDC operators have been sluggish in accepting big sums of naira. They are in fact rejecting large cash.

“Though, as good as it may look, I think this is a temporary calmness except if the regulatory authority did not go back to sleep as they used to do in cases similar to this.”

This time, last year, the exchange rate appreciated from about N577/$ in early October to about N535/$ by mid-November.

The exchange rate at the black market will eventually close the year at about N575/$ by late December before closing the year at N560/$.

Predicting the exchange rate is an incredibly difficult undertaking as a dynamic interplay between demand and supply is the official determinant.

We also anticipate an influx of forexfromdiasporaNigerians during the Christmas holiday in December as is usually the case every year. This will positively impact FX rates.

Related Topics:Analysts Dollar Featured Naira

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NNPC Profit Rises to N7.2tn Despite Revenue Decline

Published

5 hours ago

September 29, 2026

Trends Admin

Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari

NNPC Profit Rises to N7.2tn Despite Revenue Decline

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) recorded a N7.2 trillion profit after tax in 2025, representing a 33.3 per cent increase from the N5.4 trillion it reported in 2024, despite a significant decline in revenue.

NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, disclosed the figures on Tuesday while presenting the company’s audited financial results for the 2025 financial year in Abuja.

The company recorded N34.5 trillion in revenue in 2025, down from N45.1 trillion reported for 2024. Despite the revenue decline, profit increased as NNPC attributed the stronger bottom-line performance to improved operational efficiency and financial discipline.

Ojulari said lower international crude oil prices and reduced petroleum product sales, following changes in the downstream petroleum market, put pressure on revenue during the year.

However, improved operational performance helped cushion the impact, allowing NNPC profit to rise to N7.2 trillion.

The company also reported N22.33 trillion in taxes, royalties and other remittances to the Federal Government, representing a 39 per cent increase compared with the previous year.

The results also showed stronger production performance across the company’s upstream operations.

According to NNPC, crude oil and condensate production reached an average peak of 1.77 million barrels per day in 2025, the company’s highest level in five years.

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Domestic gas supply also rose to a three-year high of 7.2 billion standard cubic feet per day, reflecting increased gas production and supply to the Nigerian market.

NNPC said the financial performance demonstrated the impact of efforts to improve asset management, increase production and strengthen efficiency across its businesses.

The company’s latest results come as Nigeria continues to seek higher crude oil production, increased domestic gas supply and greater investment across the petroleum value chain.

NNPC, which became a commercial company under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2022, has been pursuing a strategy focused on increasing oil and gas output, expanding gas monetisation and strengthening its downstream operations.

The company said its future growth strategy would require continued investment in infrastructure, workforce development and operational capabilities.

NNPC also highlighted investments in digital capabilities and artificial intelligence as part of efforts to improve efficiency and strengthen its workforce.

More than 1,000 newly recruited professionals joined the company in 2025 and underwent a one-year internship and training programme before being deployed across its operations.

The company also reported that women now occupy more than 23 per cent of its leadership positions, compared with an industry average of 17 per cent.

The 2025 results come against the backdrop of major changes in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, including the removal of petrol subsidy and increased private-sector participation in fuel supply.

NNPC said the improved profitability had strengthened its capacity to invest in operations, contribute to government revenue and support Nigeria’s energy security.

The company’s performance will continue to be closely watched as Nigeria seeks to raise oil production, expand gas utilisation and increase the economic contribution of the oil and gas sector.

NNPC Profit Rises to N7.2tn Despite Revenue Decline

Business

Crude Oil Prices Ease After Monday Spike, Fuel Price Cuts Loom

Published

10 hours ago

September 29, 2026

Trends Admin

Crude Oil Prices Ease After Monday Spike, Fuel Price Cuts Loom

Global crude oil prices eased on Tuesday after a sharp rally triggered by renewed uncertainty over the possibility of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, offering some relief to an oil market that has remained highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to about $105.04 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $92.24 per barrel, according to Reuters. The prices had risen sharply earlier amid concerns over possible disruptions to Middle East oil supplies.

The latest movement is particularly significant for Nigeria, where changes in international crude prices are increasingly reflected in the domestic petrol market following the removal of petrol subsidy and the operation of a largely market-driven downstream petroleum sector.

Nigeria has in recent weeks witnessed significant fluctuations in petrol prices as international crude prices rose on the back of Middle East tensions.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has become a major source of domestic petrol supply, raised its gantry price to N1,350 per litre earlier in September before subsequently reducing it by N25 to N1,325 per litre as crude prices eased.

The impact has also begun to filter through to some retail outlets. Recent checks showed petrol selling at varying prices across the country, with some marketers reducing pump prices by between N20 and N25 per litre in response to lower wholesale costs.

In Abuja, for instance, MRS reportedly reduced its pump price from N1,395 to N1,370 per litre, while other marketers also adjusted their prices downward.

However, the latest fall in crude prices does not necessarily translate into an immediate or uniform reduction at filling stations.

This is because the price motorists pay is influenced by several factors, including the cost of crude, refining and wholesale prices, transportation and logistics, exchange-rate movements, and the margins of individual marketers.

Nigeria’s dependence on crude oil makes developments in the international petroleum market particularly important to the domestic economy.

Although the Dangote refinery has substantially increased local refining capacity and reduced reliance on imported petrol, international crude prices remain an important factor in determining the cost of feedstock and, ultimately, petroleum products.

The recent volatility has therefore kept motorists, transport operators and businesses on alert, with any sustained decline in crude prices potentially creating room for further reductions in petrol prices.

The latest crude movement followed reports of renewed diplomatic tension between Washington and Tehran.

Iran had reportedly proposed a seven-day truce, but US President Donald Trump rejected the proposal, triggering fresh concerns about the outlook for regional stability and oil supplies.

Crude prices surged during Monday’s trading session before retreating as investors reassessed the immediate supply risks and continued to monitor diplomatic efforts.

For Nigerian consumers, the key issue now is whether the downward movement in international crude prices will be sustained long enough to translate into broader and more significant reductions in petrol prices at filling stations.

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TCAN Honours Dangote Cement Transport for Safety, Logistics Excellence

Published

15 hours ago

September 29, 2026

Trends Admin

TCAN Honours Dangote Cement Transport for Safety, Logistics Excellence

Dangote Cement Transport has been recognised for its contributions to the development of Nigeria’s transport industry, winning the “Champion of Transport Industry Development Award” presented by the Transport Correspondents Association of Nigeria (TCAN).

The award, presented at the third Transport Summit organised by TCAN in Lagos, recognised the company’s efforts in improving road transport operations, strengthening safety standards and deploying more efficient logistics solutions to support industrial activities across the country.

Receiving the award on behalf of the company’s management, the Head of Dangote Cement Transport, Mr Murilo Silva, said the recognition was a reflection of the commitment of the company’s transport workforce, drivers, safety professionals, engineers and operational partners.

Silva said Dangote Cement viewed transportation as a critical component of industrialisation and economic development, stressing that the efficient movement of goods was essential to sustaining production, trade and national economic activities.

“We are deeply honoured to receive this award from the Transport Correspondents Association of Nigeria. This recognition reflects Dangote Cement Transport’s unwavering commitment to developing a safe, efficient and sustainable transport system that supports economic growth and national development,” he said.

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According to him, the company would continue to invest in technology, safety initiatives and operational improvements as part of efforts to raise standards across its transport operations.

“At Dangote Cement, we recognise that transportation is much more than moving goods from one point to another. It is a vital link in the nation’s economic ecosystem,” Silva said.

He added that the company would continue to deploy innovative solutions, strengthen its safety culture and collaborate with relevant stakeholders to improve road transport operations.

Silva dedicated the award to the thousands of drivers, transport professionals, engineers, safety personnel and logistics workers whose daily efforts support the movement of Dangote Cement products across its extensive distribution network.

“This award belongs to our drivers, our safety professionals and every member of our transport team who work tirelessly every day to ensure that our operations are safe, reliable and efficient,” he said.

The recognition underscores Dangote Cement Transport’s investments in fleet management, driver training, road safety programmes and technology-driven logistics solutions aimed at improving operational efficiency and reducing risks associated with road transportation.

The award was presented against the backdrop of growing calls for stronger collaboration between government and private-sector operators to tackle infrastructure and logistics challenges confronting the country’s transport industry.

The TCAN summit also featured discussions on port modernisation, rail integration and technology deployment, with stakeholders emphasising the need for coordinated action to improve freight movement, reduce logistics costs and accelerate innovation across Nigeria’s transport sector.