Forex interventions give false hope on naira, says IMF - Newstrends
Connect with us

Business

Forex interventions give false hope on naira, says IMF

Published

on

REGULAR foreign exchange (forex) interventions in Nigeria and other emerging economies create false sense of security and hope on the local currency, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned.

Nigeria, which operates a flexible exchange rate regime, spends about $16 billion annually to defend the naira.

A large part of the forex interventions are auctions at the inter-bank spot, sale of dollar for invisibles; Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs); Bureaux De Change (BDC); Investors and Exporters (I&E) Forex window and Forwards.

In a joint report released at the weekend by IMF Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Tobias Adrian; Director of the Fund’s Research Department; Gita Gopinath and Director of the Strategy, Policy and Review Department Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the trio said that while flexible exchange rates can act as a useful shock absorber in the face of capital flow volatility, they do not always offer sufficient insulation.

They said the impact of the interventions is worse when access to global capital markets is interrupted or market depth is limited.

The report quoted Fund as saying “Persistent interventions might feed a (false) sense of security about future exchange rate developments that leads firms or households to take on more foreign currency debt, thus increasing balance sheet vulnerabilities.”

The IMF team said that in a continuous effort to help countries manage volatile cross-border capital flows, it has taken a major step toward a new analytical macroeconomic framework that can guide appropriate policy responses.

IMF analysis suggests that there is no “one-size-fits-all” response to capital flow volatility, nor is it a case of “anything goes” or that all policies are equally effective.

“Optimal policies depend on the nature of shocks and country characteristics. For instance, the appropriate policy response in a country with less developed financial markets and large foreign currency debts may differ from that of a country that does not have foreign currency mismatches on their balance sheets, or those that can rely on more sophisticated (deep and liquid) markets.”

“Generally, in countries with flexible exchange rates, deep markets, and continuous market access, full exchange rate adjustment to shocks remains appropriate.

“However, when a country has certain vulnerabilities, such as shallow markets, dollarization, or poorly anchored inflation expectations, while flexible exchange rates continue to provide significant benefits, other tools can play a useful role as well.

“In particular, macro-prudential measures, foreign exchange intervention, and capital flow management measures can enhance monetary policy autonomy so monetary policy can adequately focus on containing inflation and promoting stable economic growth. The same tools—including precautionary capital flow management measures on capital inflows, applied before shocks hit—can also help lower financial stability risks.”

For them, the work reflects evolving thinking on macroeconomic policy and will feed into the upcoming review of the IMF’s Institutional View on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows, which currently guides the Fund’s advice and assessments of members’ policies.

According to the Fund, international capital flows provide significant benefits for economic development but can also generate or amplify shocks. This dilemma has long posed challenges for policymakers in many open economies.

It said that many policymakers reach for a mix of policy tools to complement interest rate policy when dealing with capital flows. These tools include macro-prudential measures, foreign exchange intervention, and capital flow management measures.

Such diverse approaches were also used during the COVID-19 crisis, with significant differences in responses between countries. However, despite the widespread use of the various tools, to date, there has been no clear conceptual framework to guide the integrated usage of these tools.

The new framework represents a significant advance in thinking about when various tools should and should not be used and how these tools can work together to achieve better outcomes.

-The Nation

Business

Nigerian Equities Post World’s Second-Best Dollar Returns in 2026, Recover $21bn

Published

on

Nigerian stock market

Nigerian Equities Post World’s Second-Best Dollar Returns in 2026, Recover $21bn

Nigerian equities have emerged as one of the best-performing stock markets globally in 2026, delivering the world’s second-best dollar returns after years of currency-driven losses and weak investor sentiment. The local market has risen 31 percent in dollar terms this year, helping investors recoup about $21 billion in market value lost following the sharp naira devaluation in 2024.

Market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange Group has climbed to approximately $84 billion, representing a 58 percent increase from levels recorded before the currency collapse. According to Bloomberg, Nigeria’s benchmark equity index has surged 31 percent year-to-date, significantly outperforming global peers. The rally far outpaces the 11 percent gain in the broader emerging-market index and the 6.4 percent advance recorded by frontier-market stocks.

Analysts attribute the sharp rebound to a combination of stronger corporate earnings, exchange-rate stability, and renewed investor confidence following wide-ranging economic reforms. Olabode Williams, an analyst at SBG Securities Ltd, said companies hardest hit by the naira’s earlier collapse have now stabilised their balance sheets and returned to profitability. He noted that investors are increasingly pricing in growth as corporate fundamentals improve, adding that Nigerian equities are becoming more attractive to both local and foreign investors after years of underperformance.

READ ALSO:

The rally has also been supported by a firmer naira, which has appreciated by more than seven percent against the dollar in 2026, ranking as the world’s second-best performing currency among those tracked by Bloomberg. The currency rebound has strengthened dollar-based equity returns and helped reverse losses triggered by earlier exchange-rate volatility.

Foreign participation has increased sharply alongside the rally. Data from the Nigerian Exchange Group shows that non-Nigerian trading in local equities reached a 19-year high in 2025. Transactions by foreign investors tripled to ₦2.65 trillion ($1.97 billion) from ₦852 billion in the previous year, reflecting renewed global appetite for Nigerian risk assets.

Market analysts believe the rally could extend further if major listings materialise. Gloria Fadipe, an analyst at CSL Stockbrokers Ltd, a unit of FCMB Group Plc, said the market could exceed $100 billion in valuation this year if large-scale listings proceed. She noted that potential listings of Dangote Refinery and Dangote Fertiliser could deliver capital gains of up to 34 percent while deepening market liquidity.

The rebound comes amid broader macroeconomic reforms introduced by Bola Tinubu, including the unification and liberalisation of the foreign-exchange market. While the reforms initially triggered volatility and inflationary pressure, economists say they are restoring policy credibility, improving capital inflows, and repositioning Nigerian assets for sustained long-term growth.

Nigerian Equities Post World’s Second-Best Dollar Returns in 2026, Recover $21bn

Continue Reading

Business

Naira Maintains Stability Against Dollar as CBN FX Measures Keep Markets Calm

Published

on

Naira-dollar

Naira Maintains Stability Against Dollar as CBN FX Measures Keep Markets Calm

The Nigerian Naira showed relative stability against the United States Dollar during Tuesday, February 17, 2026, trading sessions in both official and parallel foreign exchange markets. After a weekend of consolidation, the local currency continued to hover around the ₦1,350 band, reflecting the effectiveness of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) liquidity management policies.

In the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the Naira opened at ₦1,351.18 per dollar and adjusted slightly by mid-morning to ₦1,354.86, a movement attributed to early-week corporate demand. Analysts say the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) and the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) have helped anchor the official exchange rate below the ₦1,400 mark for over two weeks, providing a predictable environment for businesses and investors.

READ ALSO:

Meanwhile, in the parallel market, the Naira traded at a traditional premium, ranging from ₦1,380 to ₦1,440 per dollar in commercial hubs like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano. Traders reported sufficient dollar supply for personal travel and small-scale business transactions, noting that the narrowing gap between official and parallel rates has discouraged speculative hoarding and improved market efficiency.

Recent CBN interventions, including expanding access to licensed Bureau De Change operators and enforcing regulatory compliance, have strengthened FX liquidity, allowing for more transparent price discovery. Combined with Nigeria’s moderating inflation rates and robust external reserves of around $49 billion, these measures have bolstered confidence in the Naira and helped limit excessive volatility.

Market watchers, however, caution that challenges remain, including uneven foreign exchange inflows and persistent demand pressures in the informal sector. Sustaining the Naira’s stability in the coming weeks will depend on continued policy consistency, enhanced liquidity provision, and investor participation across sectors.

Summary of Rates on February 17, 2026:

  • Official NFEM Opening: ₦1,351.18 per $1
  • Official NFEM Mid-Morning: ₦1,354.86 per $1
  • Parallel Market Range: ₦1,380 – ₦1,440 per $1

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic that the Naira can maintain its stability and momentum for the remainder of February, provided that external reserves and FX supply measures continue to support the market.

Naira Maintains Stability Against Dollar as CBN FX Measures Keep Markets Calm

Continue Reading

Business

Dokpesi Jr, Ex-GMD Akiotu Clash Over DAAR Communications Mgt Restructuring

Published

on

DAAR Communications

Dokpesi Jr, Ex-GMD Akiotu Clash Over DAAR Communications Mgt Restructuring

A public dispute has erupted at DAAR Communications Plc as Chairman Raymond Dokpesi Jr and former Group Managing Director, High Chief Tony Akiotu, publicly clashed over the company’s recent management restructuring, raising questions about corporate governance and the legacy of Nigeria’s pioneering media organisation.

Speaking in Abuja, Dokpesi Jr defended the executive shake-up, stating he has “no regrets” about the decisions made following the sudden death of the company’s founder, Raymond Aleogho Dokpesi Sr. He described the departure of long-serving executives as a difficult but necessary step to ensure stability, investor confidence, and future growth. The chairman noted that the company faced challenges after his father’s passing, including declining share value and reduced investor confidence, and emphasised that the transition process was carefully managed to minimise tension.

READ ALSO:

Dokpesi Jr acknowledged that the exiting executives were owed salary arrears and other entitlements, which the organisation has been settling, amounting to billions of naira accumulated over their 15-year tenure. He explained that the restructuring allowed the company to prioritise outstanding obligations and improve operational efficiency, with most business units now financially independent and others expected to achieve autonomy before the end of the year. “I will continue to apologise to Mr Tony Akiotu and the affected management staff for any hurt feelings,” he said, “but I have no regrets — the results validate the decision.”

In response, Akiotu criticised Dokpesi Jr’s statement as unfair and misleading. He argued that it was inappropriate for a chairman who presided over board meetings and approved management memos to later accuse the same leadership team of mismanagement. Akiotu highlighted that all major operational and financial decisions during his tenure were subject to board approval, and that the team had contributed significantly to the company’s growth into a national and international media brand, with operations spanning Nigeria, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Akiotu also noted that while executive retirements may be permissible under corporate regulations, the public portrayal of their tenure overlooked the sacrifices made to build one of Nigeria’s pioneering broadcast institutions. “If Raymond Dokpesi Jr believes we played no part in the growth of the company, we leave it to Nigerians and history to make that judgment,” he said.

Industry observers say the dispute underscores ongoing debates about corporate governance, leadership succession, and strategic reform within DAAR Communications, which continues to be a major player in Nigeria’s broadcast media sector. Both parties have called for dialogue, but the public nature of the clash has drawn attention across the media and business community, with speculation over potential boardroom changes and the company’s future direction.

Dokpesi Jr, Ex-GMD Akiotu Clash Over DAAR Communications Mgt Restructuring

Continue Reading
HostArmada Affordable Cloud SSD Shared Hosting
HostArmada - Affordable Cloud SSD Web Hosting

Trending