Business
Forex interventions give false hope on naira, says IMF
REGULAR foreign exchange (forex) interventions in Nigeria and other emerging economies create false sense of security and hope on the local currency, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned.
Nigeria, which operates a flexible exchange rate regime, spends about $16 billion annually to defend the naira.
A large part of the forex interventions are auctions at the inter-bank spot, sale of dollar for invisibles; Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs); Bureaux De Change (BDC); Investors and Exporters (I&E) Forex window and Forwards.
In a joint report released at the weekend by IMF Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Tobias Adrian; Director of the Fund’s Research Department; Gita Gopinath and Director of the Strategy, Policy and Review Department Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, the trio said that while flexible exchange rates can act as a useful shock absorber in the face of capital flow volatility, they do not always offer sufficient insulation.
They said the impact of the interventions is worse when access to global capital markets is interrupted or market depth is limited.
The report quoted Fund as saying “Persistent interventions might feed a (false) sense of security about future exchange rate developments that leads firms or households to take on more foreign currency debt, thus increasing balance sheet vulnerabilities.”
The IMF team said that in a continuous effort to help countries manage volatile cross-border capital flows, it has taken a major step toward a new analytical macroeconomic framework that can guide appropriate policy responses.
IMF analysis suggests that there is no “one-size-fits-all” response to capital flow volatility, nor is it a case of “anything goes” or that all policies are equally effective.
“Optimal policies depend on the nature of shocks and country characteristics. For instance, the appropriate policy response in a country with less developed financial markets and large foreign currency debts may differ from that of a country that does not have foreign currency mismatches on their balance sheets, or those that can rely on more sophisticated (deep and liquid) markets.”
“Generally, in countries with flexible exchange rates, deep markets, and continuous market access, full exchange rate adjustment to shocks remains appropriate.
“However, when a country has certain vulnerabilities, such as shallow markets, dollarization, or poorly anchored inflation expectations, while flexible exchange rates continue to provide significant benefits, other tools can play a useful role as well.
“In particular, macro-prudential measures, foreign exchange intervention, and capital flow management measures can enhance monetary policy autonomy so monetary policy can adequately focus on containing inflation and promoting stable economic growth. The same tools—including precautionary capital flow management measures on capital inflows, applied before shocks hit—can also help lower financial stability risks.”
For them, the work reflects evolving thinking on macroeconomic policy and will feed into the upcoming review of the IMF’s Institutional View on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows, which currently guides the Fund’s advice and assessments of members’ policies.
According to the Fund, international capital flows provide significant benefits for economic development but can also generate or amplify shocks. This dilemma has long posed challenges for policymakers in many open economies.
It said that many policymakers reach for a mix of policy tools to complement interest rate policy when dealing with capital flows. These tools include macro-prudential measures, foreign exchange intervention, and capital flow management measures.
Such diverse approaches were also used during the COVID-19 crisis, with significant differences in responses between countries. However, despite the widespread use of the various tools, to date, there has been no clear conceptual framework to guide the integrated usage of these tools.
The new framework represents a significant advance in thinking about when various tools should and should not be used and how these tools can work together to achieve better outcomes.
-The Nation
Business
Dangote refinery increases petrol price from N899 to N955/litre
Dangote refinery increases petrol price from N899 to N955/litre
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced an increase in the cost of lifting its petrol from N899 per litre to N955.
This also affirmed the projection of oil marketers and Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria that Nigerians should gear up for an imminent hike in the pump price of fuel.
This is coming following the latest rise in the cost of crude oil in the international market.
Dangote refinery in a notice on Friday titled, “Communication on PMS Price Review”, said the new pricing structure of N955 per litre was for customers purchasing between two million and 4.99 million litres.
Bulk buyers of five million litres or more are to pay N950 per litre, according to the notice.
This price adjustment indicates a 6.17% increase, or N55.5 per litre, compared to the discounted rate of N899.50 per litre offered during December 2024’s holiday period.
The refinery added that the new rates took effect from 5:30pm Friday impacting all unsold stock balances and pending orders.
Dangote refinery informed its customers of the price revision, attributing the change to rising global oil prices.
“Kindly be advised that effective from 5:30 PM today, an upward adjustment has been implemented on the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit.
“Please note that all stock balances yet to be lifted as at the above-stated time are to be repriced at the new reviewed prices.
“We shall communicate with customers on their revised volumes based on the reviewed prices, in due course,” it read in part.
The increase is due to the rise in the price of Brent, the global benchmark for crude.
Brent crude rose to $81.84 per barrel—the highest level in 2025.
Business
Petrol price hike imminent over biting exchange rate – PENGASSAN
Petrol price hike imminent over biting exchange rate – PENGASSAN
The President of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Festus Osifo, has warned that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could increase if the upward trend in global crude oil prices persists.
Speaking during PENGASSAN’s National Executive Council Meeting in Lagos on Thursday, Osifo highlighted the correlation between rising crude oil costs and Nigeria’s foreign exchange challenges, cautioning that the situation may lead to higher fuel prices.
“The crude price rose to $80 per barrel today. Without exchange rate improvements, PMS prices will increase in the coming weeks,” Osifo stated.
He attributed the nationwide high fuel prices to the volatile exchange rate, even with the gradual resumption of operations at domestic refineries. However, he noted that these facilities were not yet operating at full capacity.
Addressing misconceptions about refining, Osifo explained that producing high-quality PMS involves extensive blending and processing. “The old Port Harcourt refinery is functional, and there is significant progress at the Kaduna and Port Harcourt refineries. Refineries globally engage in blending operations; it is a normal part of the process,” he said.
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Osifo linked the rising cost of petrol to the weakened naira, explaining that a stronger exchange rate could stabilize PMS prices.
“The price of PMS is directly linked to our weak naira. If the exchange rate improves to below N1,000 to a dollar, PMS could sell for N500–N600 per litre,” he added.
Drawing comparisons with countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe, Osifo stressed the importance of currency management in the oil and gas sector, which relies heavily on U.S. dollars for equipment, operations, and expatriate salaries.
On local refining, he refuted claims that it would automatically lead to significantly lower prices, emphasizing the importance of maintaining cost margins. “Producing locally does not mean selling below cost. Even farmers calculate their production costs before adding margins,” he explained.
In a separate discussion, Osifo criticized Nigeria’s proposed 2025 budget of ₦49 trillion (approximately $30 billion), describing it as inadequate for a country with a population exceeding 230 million.
“The budget of $30 billion is abysmally low for a country like Nigeria, especially when you compare it with nations like South Africa, which has a population of about 60 million but operates on a budget of over $120 billion,” he stated.
He urged the Nigerian government to explore its vast natural and mineral resources to increase revenue and reduce reliance on borrowing.
Petrol price hike imminent over biting exchange rate – PENGASSAN
Business
Nigeria’s CNG conversion capacity increases by 2,500% – NMDPRA
Nigeria’s CNG conversion capacity increases by 2,500% – NMDPRA
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said that the country’s Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) conversion capacity increased by over 2,500 per cent in 2024.
Mr Farouk Ahmed, Authority Chief Executive, NMDPRA, said this on Thursday in Abuja at the inaugural Petroleum Industry Stakeholders’ Forum, organised by the Ministry of Petroleum Resources.
Ahmed said that NMDPRA supported the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative (PCNGI) by stimulating 186 new conversion centers which triggered the county’s conversion capacity.
“The NMDPRA will continue to collaborate with the PCNGI to ensure deployment of CNG infrastructure in major cities of Lagos and Abuja, up to 100,000 conversions, while collaborating with states to develop Nigeria Gas Vehicles (NGVs) in other areas.
“The development of CNG as a viable alternative to Petrol has been incentivised.
“These conversions alongside new buys have raised the Nigerian Gas Vehicles population to an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 vehicles and trucks, and it continues to grow daily.
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“With over 400 million dollars attracted for investment in 86 and 65 new daughters and mother stations under construction respectively, Nigeria refueling capacity has therefore risen from 20 to 56,” he said.
Ahmed said that the collaboration between PCNGI, NMDPRA and Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) led to the development of standards and the NGV Monitoring System expected to be inaugurated this year.
“The NMDPRA also collaborates with the SON, the National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC) and the National Institute of Transportation Technology (NITT) in ensuring that our mobility CNG growth is achieved in a safe and sustainable manner,” he said.
The NMDPRA boss, however, listed some challenges facing the initiative to include establishment and operation of petroleum handling facilities without proper licensing, permits and authorisations.
He listed other challenges to include poor collaborations for Open/ third party access to facilities and lack of cooperation of some operators for an effective regulatory oversight, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) provisions.
“We implore the industry to adhere to all regulatory requirements, especially as they relate to safety, efficiency, best practices, sustainability, consumer protection and community participation.
“As we progress into 2025, the NMDPRA will continue to consolidate on its successes for enhanced regulatory oversight.
“This will include the upgrade of our laboratories for enhanced product quality analysis and referencing, inter-agency collaborations, automation and sustainability in the industry,” Ahmed said.
Nigeria’s CNG conversion capacity increases by 2,500% – NMDPRA
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