Business
LCCI predicts galloping inflation, slow economy in 2021
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has warned that 2021 economic outlook may not be bright as cost of living may rise due to higher inflation rate.
It specifically states that headline inflation will remain elevated as the combination of food supply shocks, forex policies, higher energy costs, forex illiquidity, heightened insecurity in major food-producing states will continue to mount pressure on domestic consumer prices.
In its Economic and Business Review for Year 2020 And Outlook for Year 2021 released on Sunday, the LCCI said it remained unclear what new strategies were in the works for the nation’s security situation.
The report released by the LCCI’s Director General, Dr. Muda Yusuf, noted that shortageof foreign exchange to businesses and end-users would remain a major economic issue in 2021.
According to the report, while forex supply will face continued pressure in 2021 in the light of relatively lower dollar inflows from oil, foreign investment, and diaspora remittances, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to sustain its demand management strategies via rationing and restricting access to forex for food imports.
“In year 2021, the CBN will most likely maintain and initiate more demand management policy measures to taper growing demand for forex amid weak dollar inflows,” it said.
The LCCI said without bold policy pronouncements, constraints to the ease of doing business including foreign exchange shortage, escalating production costs, high regulatory costs, infrastructure inadequacies, and delayed cargo clearance, will persist into year 2021.
The report said the Nigerian policy environment is characterized by a great deal of uncertainty. The inconsistent and unpredictable nature of the policy and regulatory environment continues to hurt long-term investment planning and business projections.
Yusuf said, “These constraints will be more profound on businesses in the real economy. We believe the sluggish pace of recovery will continue to subdue consumer demand, albeit the impact on earnings performance will be disproportionate across sectors.”
He also said many Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) would struggle in the new year amid unfavourable economic conditions, large corporates are expected to demonstrate resilience in the coming year.
According to him, the economy will return to the path of positive growth in the second quarter of 2021 and this will expectedly impact on the macroeconomic environment which may ease some of the critical economic conditions currently impeding economic growth.
He said Nigeria’s trade dynamics with the global community is expected to remain almost unchanged in the short-term. With imports continuing to outpace exports, trade deficit is expected to widen in excess of N5 trillion in year 2020, thereby putting pressure on forex.
“Looking ahead in 2021, we expect crude oil to sustain its dominance in Nigeria’s export while manufactured imports will most likely dominate the country’s import bill. We anticipate sustained trade deficit in agriculture, manufactured goods and raw materials goods in year 2021,” he said.
The LCCI boss said total capital inflows for year 2021 might likely range between $10 billion – $11 billion, below 2018 and 2019’s levels. The forex policies, security challenges, sustained fiscal & external risks, infrastructure inadequacies, policy credibility concerns and regulatory bottlenecks may keep capital importation subdued in the short-term.
“Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) are concerned about continual rise in negative real return rate on investment due to rising inflation and inability of FPIs to exchange naira repayments into forex. Given that these issues remain unresolved, we believe FPIs will remain cautious about naira-denominated investment securities in the short term,” Yusuf said.
He added that the value of Nigeria’s trade with the global community stood at N23.2 trillion between January and September 2020, with imports of N13.91 trillion and exports of N9.3 trillion accounting for 60 per cent and 40 per cent of total trade, respectively.
“There has been a sustained expansion in the country’s trade deficit since the start of the year, with cumulative trade deficit at N4.6 trillion in the first nine months of 2020 as exports have grown less rapidly compared to imports. The structure of Nigeria’s export basket remained unchanged as crude exports accounted for 74 per cent of total exports while manufactured goods dominated imports bills between the first and third quarters,” Yusuf stated.
He also said, “While recovery to growth trajectory is expected to take full course most likely in second quarter 2021 due to base effect of second quarter 2020 when output contracted steeply by 6.1 per cent. We expect the pace of recovery to remain subdued within the region of one per cent in year 2021 in the absence of shocks. In our view, Nigeria’s recovery prospects depend largely on oil price and production level as GDP performance in recent quarters has significantly mirrored trends in both variables.”
Auto
Soludo: Kojo assembly plant will make Anambra auto manufacturing hub
Soludo: Kojo assembly plant will make Anambra auto manufacturing hub
Anambra State Governor, Professor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, has expressed optimism that the new Kojo automotive assembly plant at Umunya along the Enugu-Onitsha Expressway will not only boost the economy of the state but also reposition it as an automotive manufacturing hub.
The assembly plant nearing completion is expected to roll out its first set of vehicles under the Soludo administration soon.
The governor spoke at the just concluded Anambra State Investment Summit (ANINVEST 2.0) with Kojo Motors as one of the official partners and sponsors.
This year’s ANINVEST held under the theme “Changing Gears: Accelerating Anambra’s Economic Transformation”
was organised by the state government as a pivotal event in advancing the collective vision for rapid development of the state’s economy.
Speaking on the sidelines of the summit, Managing Director of OMAA, Chinedu Oguegbu, reiterated the plan of the company to invite Governor Soludo to commission the plant and drive the first locally assembled vehicle out of the Kojo Assembly Plant by the first quarter of 2025.
He said, “His Excellency is very passionate about the Kojo Motors auto assembly plant. He is very eager to see its completion and commencement of assembly of vehicles come to reality.
“I can assure him and the state government that we are doing everything possible to ensure we meet with the governor’s wishes and aspirations.”
The event brought together stakeholders from the various sectors of the local and global economy including industry leaders, development partners, financial institutions and other relevant participants, all united in a commitment to accelerating the economic transformation of Anambra State.
Anambra, according to the state governor, is fast becoming a renewed investors’ destination for different types of money bags rushing to the state to capitalise on the pledged ease of doing business to set up businesses.
“This time around, one of such massive investments is being undertaken by John Ikenna Oguegbu, an indigene of the state and chairman, founder and CEO, Kojo Motors Limited,” Chinedu Oguegbu said.
Last year September, Governor Soludo performed the groundbreaking ceremony of the Kojo Motors auto assembly plant for the local assembly of the OMAA range of gas-powered mini passenger and commercial buses as well as Chinese range of Yutong passenger and commercial buses.
While congratulating John Ikenna Oguegbu, chairman and chief executive of Kojo Motors Limited for bringing his wealth to his home state to invest. Governor Soludo also commended the Yutong buses manufacturers from China for the smart move of coming to Anambra State to set up the auto assembly plant in collaboration with the local franchisee.
The governor stated that the decision to allow prospective investors to come and invest in the state was not out of philanthropy or charity, but rather a business decision model that would take Anambra State to the world and bring the outside world to the state.
Governor Soludo pledged the state government’s commitment and patronage of the vehicles rolling out of the Yutong Assembly plant.
He declared that the state government under his administration was on course for massive industrial development, employment generation and prosperity for all its citizens.
Business
Naira slumps on NNPC, marketers importation of fuel
Naira slumps on NNPC, marketers importation of fuel
The naira has weakened further on the parallel market, dropping to N1,740/$ from N1,720/$.
Similarly, the NAFEM official exchange rate showed a slight depreciation on Friday, closing at N1,652/$ compared to the earlier rate of N1,650/$.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and other oil marketers imported 1.5 million metric tonnes of petrol and 414,018.764 metric tonnes of diesel between October 1 and November 11, 2024.
The country’s inflation rate also spiked, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 33.88% in October, up from 32.70% in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The oil importation statistics indicated 13,500 metric tonnes of jet fuel alongside petrol and diesel imports during the 42-day period.
The total value of these products was put at $1.9 billion or approximately N3 trillion.
The breakdown revealed that two billion litres of petrol, 500 million litres of diesel, and 17 million litres of jet fuel were imported.
But at an event in Lagos, NNPC’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, highlighted the company’s commitment to reducing dependence on imported refined products.
The NNPC spokesperson Olufemi Soneye clarified that while the company prioritizes sourcing from local refineries, importation would continue based on economic factors.
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“Today, NNPC does not import any products; we are taking only from domestic refineries,” Kyari stated. Soneye, however, added, “The GCEO’s statement should not be construed to imply that NNPC is obligated to be the sole off-taker of any refinery or that we will no longer import fuel. While NNPC prioritises sourcing products from domestic refineries, this is contingent upon economic viability.”
The Dangote Refinery, which has advocated for sourcing locally refined products, faces challenges with pricing dynamics, making the transition complex.
Aliko Dangote, the refinery’s President, recently disclosed that it holds over 500 million litres of fuel in reserves.
The NNPC’s importation data showed Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar as key discharge points for refined products.
Naira slumps on NNPC, marketers importation of fuel
Business
CBN to penalise banks selling new naira notes to hawkers
CBN to penalise banks selling new naira notes to hawkers
The Central Bank of Nigeria says it will heavily penalise banks with empty ATMs and those selling ‘mint’ cash to naira hawkers.
Solaja Olayemi, CBN’s acting director for the currency operations department, said this in a memo to DMBs on Friday.
Mr Olayemi said that the CBN would engage in “mystery shopping” exercise and periodic “spot checks” on cash distribution and disbursement activities of DMBs to ascertain the source of such Naira notes.
He said that the initiatives were introduced to monitor and prevent practices that facilitate the flow of mint banknotes to hawkers of naira cash, thereby discouraging abuse of the naira.
He said that the initiatives would also ensure that DMBs support efficient and responsible cash disbursement to the public.
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“For the avoidance of doubt, it should be noted that DMBs, to whom cash seized from hawkers of cash is traced, will be penalised 10 per cent of the total value of cash withdrawn on the day the seized cash was withdrawn from the CBN.
“Every subsequent offence will be charged an incremental penalty of five per cent.
“DMBs found engaging in cash hoarding, diversion, or any actions that hinder efficient cash distribution, including violations of the Clean Note Policy, will incur appropriate sanctions,” he said.
He urged DMBs to implement internal controls for responsible disbursement and accountability regarding mint banknote payouts at their outlets, as the yuletide season approached, with an anticipated increase in cash demand.
“To enhance public access to cash, we encourage banks to prioritise cash distribution through Automated Teller Machines (ATMs).
“During this season, the CBN, in collaboration with relevant law enforcement agencies, will intensify spot checks and mystery shopping activities to monitor and enforce responsible cash distribution and prevent naira abuse,” he said.
CBN to penalise banks selling new naira notes to hawkers
(NAN)
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