Business
‘More expensive than subsidy?’ — Is FG’s N5,000 transport grant dead on arrival?
Zainab Ahmed, minister of finance, budget, and national planning, said on Tuesday that the federal government would remove fuel subsidy by 2022 and replace it with a N5,000 grant for the poorest Nigerians. According to her, about tens of millions Nigerians would benefit from the transport grant.
Following the revelation, Nigerians online and offline have weighed in on the policy, raising quite a number of reservations about the policy, which is billed to take off sometime between February to June 2022.
While some say the policy is inevitable, following the fiscal condition of the Nigerian states, others differ, emphasising that Nigeria is an oil-producing country and should not have to pay so much for petrol.
TheCable on Wednesday reported that Nigeria had the third-lowest petrol pump price in Africa, after Angola and Algeria. This position strengthens the argument for keeping oil subsidies — if other oil-producing states are doing it, Nigeria can keep subsidies too.
On the flip side, some Nigerians believe the removal of subsidies is long overdue. This school of thought claims that Nigeria is at least 10 years late to the party. They see subsidies as unsustainable, inefficient, and responsible for the lack of competition in the oil sector.
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However, a large chunk of both schools of thought does not entirely believe in the idea of giving N5,000 transport grants to the poorest Nigerians. Some say the grant will be more expensive than the existing fuel subsidy and would have an even worse impact on state finances.
TheCable has reviewed all we know about this policy to draw informed conclusions on the subsidy removal and replacement plan.
You may have seen claims online suggesting that N5,000 for 40 million Nigerians monthly, would amount to N2.4 trillion, which is more than the existing subsidy payments of about N1.8 trillion per year. Mathematically, this is correct. But according to what we know about the policy, this is not exactly the case.
Speaking at the launch of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) hosted by the World Bank, the minister of finance, said the number of beneficiaries would vary between 20 million and 40 million.
During her opening speech, she said: “Ahead of the target date of mid-2022 for the complete elimination of fuel subsidies, we are working with our partners on measures to cushion potential negative impact of the removal of the subsidies on the most vulnerable at the bottom 40% of the population.
“One of such measures would be to institute a monthly transport subsidy in the form of cash transfer of N5,000 to between 30 – 40 million deserving Nigerians.”
For 30 million Nigerians, the cost of maintaining this grant per year will be N1.8 trillion, which is also as bad as the subsidy payment itself. Going by what the minister initially said, the cost of the grants is worse. This drives the argument for keeping subsidies.
However, the minister also said during the panel discussion that the grant may not get to all 40 million Nigerians, suggesting that the final numbers will be dependent on available resources. This means a lot less than N1 trillion may eventually be spent on delivering the policy.
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TIME: FEBRUARY OR JUNE 2022?
Another challenge with the project is the timeline; questions abound on when exactly this project would kick-off. According to the Petroleum Industry Act, subsidies should be removed by February 2022. But according to the 2022 budget, subsidies will be paid till June, 2022.
Two contradicting pieces of legislation? Not exactly. When the PIB was signed by President Muhammadu Buhari, the president set up an implementation committee to execute PIA within the space of one year.
The committee, in line with the ministry of finance, budget and national planning, made room for subsidies till June 2022, but the removal could be as early as February to save the government some subsidy funds.
Will December, January, February be enough time to convince Nigerians on subsidy removal? Time will tell.
HOW WOULD THE 40M NIGERIANS BE SELECTED?
Yes, this is a recurrent question. But according to the minister, the selection process will build on the existing conditional cash transfer register used by the office of the vice-president in administering payments to poor and vulnerable Nigerians in the past.
The minister said the government will be working with state governments and non-governmental organisation (NGO) to ensure that the people who get the grant are the ones who actually get the funds.
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DEAD ON ARRIVAL?
The World Bank recommended that Nigeria “implement a large-scale (covering 25% to 50% of the population) and time-bound targeted cash-transfer program to mitigate impacts of high inflation and the PMS subsidy removal.”
It also asked the government to “redirect savings from PMS subsidy to finance primary health, basic education, and rural connectivity projects” with the country.
The bank estimates that subsidy savings could be as high as N3 trillion per year. If that is the reality, then Nigeria can go ahead with the cash transfers, and still have some money to finance primary health, basic education, and rural connectivity projects.
However, going by 2019 figures, subsidy savings will be less than N2 trillion, while N5,000 to 40 million Nigerians will amount to N2.4 trillion. At that rate, there will be no savings for other projects recommended by the bank.
Dead on arrival? A lot will depend on the final implementation plans.
TheCable
Aviation
Disaster averted as bird strike hits Abuja-Lagos Air Peace flight
Disaster averted as bird strike hits Abuja-Lagos Air Peace flight
An Abuja-Lagos flight was on Thursday aborted following a bird strike on the airplane belonging to Air Peace, forcing the authorities to ground the aircraft.
The bird strike experienced in the early hours reportedly prompted a ramp return to ensure the safety of passengers onboard.
All the passengers quickly disembarked and were calmed down before they were moved into another plane for the one-hour journey.
A bird strike is a collision between a bird and an aircraft, or other airborne animal, while the aircraft is in flight, taking off, or landing. And it can be a significant threat to aircraft safety.
Air Peace in a statement by its Head of Corporate Communications, Ejike Ndiulo, said the bird strike occurred at 6:30am, and all passengers disembarked normally.
The statement read, “We wish to inform our esteemed passengers that our Abuja- Lagos 06:30 flight experienced a bird strike before take-off, prompting a ramp return as a safety measure. All passengers disembarked normally.
“We have deployed a replacement aircraft for the affected flight in order to minimize disruptions, thus ensuring that passengers continue their journeys promptly.
“We appeal for the understanding of our valued passengers impacted by this development, as well as those on other flights that may experience delays.
“At Air Peace, we are committed to providing safe, comfortable, and reliable air travel for all our passengers.”
Business
NNPC achieves 1.8mbpd crude oil production
NNPC achieves 1.8mbpd crude oil production
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and its partners have revved up crude oil and gas production to 1.8million barrels per day (mbpd) and 7.4standard cubic feet per day (scfd).
The company which announced this at a press briefing said the feat was achieved in compliance with the mandate of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Speaking on the development, the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Mele Kyari, congratulated the Production War Room Team that anchored the production recovery process.
“The team has done a great job in driving this project of not just production recovery but also escalating production to expected levels that are in the short and long terms acceptable to our shareholders based on the mandates that we
have from the President, the Honourable Minister, and the Board,” Kyari explained.
Giving details of the efforts of the Production War Room, the Chief War Room Coordinator and Senior Business Adviser to the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Lawal Musa, disclosed that the feat was achieved through the collaborative efforts of Joint Venture and Production Sharing Contract partners, the Office of the National Security Adviser, as well as government and private security agencies.
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He said the interventions that led to the recovery of production cut across every segment of the production chain with security agencies closely monitoring the pipelines.
He stressed that when the Production War Room team was inaugurated on 25th June 2024, production was at 1.430mbpd, but the team swung into action, culminating into sustaining the production recovery to 1.7mbpd in August and hitting the current 1.808mbpd in November.
“We are confident that with this same momentum and with the active collaboration of all stakeholders, especially on the security front, we can see the possibility of getting to 2mbpd by the end of the year,” he stated.
Also speaking on the development, Chairman of the NNPC Ltd Board of Directors, Chief Pius Akinyelure, who also congratulated the team, said he was happy to be part of the production recovery process, adding: “today, I will leave this place with my heart full of joy”.
He charged the Company’s Management to come up with a cashflow projection based on the new production figures to facilitate planning, stressing that he was looking forward to further production increase to 3mbpd.
On his part, the Honourable Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, expressed satisfaction with the performance of the team and pledged the Federal Government’s support for the company to do more.
NNPC achieves 1.8mbpd crude oil production
Business
FG gets fresh $134m loan from AfDB for agric projects
FG gets fresh $134m loan from AfDB for agric projects
The Federal Government has secured a loan facility of $134million from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to help farmers boost seeds and grain production in the country.
This is contained in a statement issued by Anthonia Eremah, Chief Information Officer, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, on Thursday, in Abuja.
Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Sen. Abubakar Kyari, made his know at the unveiling of the 2024/2025 National Dry Season Farming in Calabar, Cross River State capital.
Kyari explained that with the re-introduction of the national dry season farming to boost year-round agricultural production, the loan would be handy and guarantee national food security in the country.
The minister said the initiative is under the National Agricultural Growth Support Scheme-Agro Pocket (NAGS-AP) Project.
He said the federal government had declared an emergency on food production to enable all Nigerians to get easy access to quality and nutritional food at affordable rates.
Kyari also said government wants to use the agricultural sector for national economic revival through increase in production of some staple food crops such as wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, soybean, and cassava during both dry and wet season farming.
He added that 107,429 wheat farmers were supported under phase 1 of the 2023/2024 dry season, and 43,997 rice farmers under the second phase of the 2023/2024 dry season.
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The minister said recently, government supported 192,095 rice, maize, sorghum/millet, soyabean and cassava farmers under the 2024 wet season across the 37 States including the FCT.
He said Cross River was leading 16 other states in wheat production, adding that over 3000 wheat farmers have been listed to benefit from the support to grow the grain.
Kyari noted the Cross River government’s commitment to wheat production.
He said it informed why the federal government is partnering with the state to kick start the maiden wheat production and enlisting them among states commencing the current 2024/2025 dry season farming.
“The 2024/2025 dry season farming, the project is targeted to support 250,000 wheat farmers across the wheat-producing states with subsidised agricultural inputs.
“This is to cultivate about 250,000 hectares with an expected output of about 750,000 metric tonnes of wheat to be added to the food reserve to reduce dependence on importation of the product and also increase domestic consumption.
“Equally the programme will provide support to 150,000 rice farmers under the second phase to cover all the 37 states, including FCT, with an expected output of about 450,000 metric tonnes,” he said.
FG gets fresh $134m loan from AfDB for agric projects
(NAN)
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