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What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report
What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report
Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, following a dramatic victory over Kamala Harris, brings new questions for Nigeria’s economic outlook.
Trump’s economic policies, built around “America First,” prioritize domestic energy production, tariffs on imports, and pushing for low interest rates.
These policies could have a significant impact on Nigeria’s economy, particularly in the areas of exchange rates, capital flows, inflation, and immigration. Below is an analysis of how these shifts could affect Nigeria’s economic landscape.
Key takeaways
Donald Trump’s second term could have sweeping implications for Nigeria’s economy.
- A stronger dollar, potential capital outflows from the U.S., and low global oil prices may add to Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility, putting pressure on the naira and increasing inflation.
- Immigration restrictions could reduce remittance flows, while geopolitical shifts might reduce U.S. support for Nigeria’s security and development needs.
- Nigeria’s policymakers may need to consider alternative strategies, such as fostering regional trade, increasing non-oil exports, and pursuing structural reforms to counterbalance the potential challenges posed by Trump’s policies.”
Exchange Rate pressures from a Stronger Dollar
Trump’s policies could lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, particularly if his administration imposes tariffs that increase demand for domestically produced goods and services.
- A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging economies, such as Nigeria, to acquire foreign exchange, potentially straining the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s efforts to stabilize the naira.
- Nigeria’s naira has depreciated by over 45% this year, and an appreciation of the dollar could further weaken the naira, impacting import costs, inflation, and purchasing power.
- A stronger dollar also increases Nigeria’s debt-servicing costs, as many of Nigeria’s obligations are dollar-denominated.
- Given Nigeria’s reliance on imports for fuel, raw materials, and consumer goods, additional dollar strength could heighten inflationary pressures on already high costs of living.
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Interest rates and Capital Flows into Nigeria
Historically, Trump has favoured a low-interest-rate environment, pushing the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy even during periods of economic growth.
- During Trump’s initial presidency, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, peaking at 2.5% in 2018 before cutting them near zero by March 2020 to counteract the economic effects of COVID-19.
- Trump’s renewed pressure for lower interest rates could again influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
- If the Federal Reserve keeps rates low, this could, in theory, result in capital outflows from the U.S. as investors seek higher returns in emerging markets.
- However, if dollar strength persists and other global markets remain volatile, investor sentiment may still favour U.S. assets as a safe haven.
From 2016 to 2020, Nigeria attracted approximately $58.1 billion in capital importation, with 2019 seeing the highest inflows at $23 billion.
- This was in part due to Nigeria offering high-yielding instruments like government bonds, which attracted foreign investors—including $4.69 billion from U.S. sources in that year.
- Should Trump’s policies create a continued low-yield environment in the U.S., Nigeria could once again attract U.S.-based capital looking for higher returns, particularly if Nigeria maintains attractive interest rates on its debt instruments.
- This capital inflow could help alleviate Nigeria’s foreign exchange pressures and support naira stability.
Inflation and Trump’s energy policies
Trump’s focus on reducing U.S. energy costs by increasing domestic oil production and drilling on federal lands could mean sustained low global oil prices. In his first term,
- Trump’s policies and the COVID-19 pandemic led to WTI crude oil prices falling sharply to around $39.17 per barrel in 2020, compared to $65.20 per barrel in 2018.
- As Nigeria heavily relies on oil exports for government revenue and foreign exchange, prolonged low oil prices could impact budget stability and government spending, with knock-on effects on inflation and economic growth.
- Furthermore, Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could raise inflation within the U.S., which might trickle down to Nigeria by increasing the cost of imported goods and components.
- Since the U.S. is among Nigeria’s top trading partners (N2.2 trillion in imports and N2.8 trillion in exports in the first half of 2024), a U.S.-led price increase could influence Nigeria’s inflation through costlier imports of essential goods like machinery, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products.
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Immigration and Nigerian diaspora impact
Trump’s return to office raises concerns for Nigerians regarding U.S. immigration policy. His administration previously imposed travel restrictions on Nigeria, citing national security risks, which disrupted the movement of students, professionals, and family members.
- If Trump reinstates such policies, it could dampen the ability of Nigerians to pursue educational and work opportunities in the U.S.
- This restriction would not only impact Nigerian nationals but could also reduce remittance flows, which are a major source of foreign exchange for Nigeria.
- In recent years, remittances from the Nigerian diaspora have contributed over $20 billion annually to Nigeria’s economy, helping to offset FX shortages.
- A decrease in remittance inflows would reduce domestic consumption and place additional pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, which are already under strain.
Geopolitical dynamics and U.S. aid to Nigeria
Under Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, military aid and development assistance to African nations were deprioritized in favour of reducing overseas commitments.
- For Nigeria, which partners with the U.S. in counter-terrorism and security, this could imply reduced military support.
- Nigeria has relied on U.S. assistance to combat Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, so any reduction in support could undermine Nigeria’s regional security efforts.
- A decline in aid could also impact Nigeria’s developmental projects and social programs funded by U.S. agencies.
- With high poverty rates and a significant need for investment in health, education, and infrastructure, a reduction in aid would necessitate increased spending by the Nigerian government, potentially redirecting funds away from other critical areas.
Trade Policies and Nigerian Exports to the U.S.
Trump’s “Buy American” policy has often focused on reducing imports and increasing tariffs, which could impact Nigeria’s trade relationship with the U.S.
- In the first half of 2024, Nigeria recorded a trade surplus with the U.S., with imports at N1.9 trillion and exports at N3.1 trillion.
- If Trump’s tariff policies discourage U.S. imports from Nigeria, this could negatively affect Nigeria’s export earnings, particularly for sectors like oil, minerals, and agricultural products.
- A decrease in exports to the U.S. might impact Nigeria’s current account balance, further complicating its exchange rate and foreign reserve challenges.
What Donald Trump’s second Presidency means for Nigerian economy – Report
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Obasa: Tinubu’s Abuja meeting fails to calm Lagos Assembly impasse as crisis deepens
Obasa: Tinubu’s Abuja meeting fails to calm Lagos Assembly impasse as crisis deepens
Despite President Bola Tinubu’s last Wednesday peace accord, brokered among two warring parties in the Lagos State House of Assembly, led by Mudashiru Obasa and Mojisola Meranda over speakership tussle, the development has failed to calm high tensions among lawmakers and stakeholders in the state.
Tinubu had, at the end of the meeting, directed aggrieved lawmakers to work with Obasa.
Obasa was ousted as Speaker on January 13, 2025 by about 35 of the 40 lawmakers over allegations of highhandedness, financial misappropriation, and despotic tendencies, among others, and was replaced by Meranda, who was his deputy before the impeachment.
The development generated a lot of conflict putting the House and Governance Advisory Council, GAC, the highest decision-making body of the All Progressives Congress, APC, in the state, party faithful, supporters, in disarray. The crisis prompted President Tinubu to draft a high-powered committee made up of Chief Bisi Akande and Aremo Olusegun Osoba, among others, to finally arrived at a truce.
The panel subsequently, convinced Meranda to resign her position as the Speaker of the House after a deal reportedly agreed upon by all stakeholders who have been mediating to ensure that the crisis was put to rest.
Speculation had it that all the parties agreed on a deal which was for Meranda to resign while Obasa would be returned as Speaker and after 48 hours, would also resign his position. The arrangement, it was learnt, was to pave the way for a new Speaker from Lagos West as demanded by the 34 aggrieved lawmakers.
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After the peace deal and Meranda’s resignation, Obasa was subsequently re-nominated for the position of speakership by one of his loyalists in the House, Noheem Adam, a lawmaker representing Eti-Osa 1 and seconded by his colleague, Nureni Akinsanya, representing Mushin 1.
Obasa’s expected resignation
However, Obasa’s attempts to win back the lost loyalty of the aggrieved members hit a brick wall when he called for a truce meeting, a day after he was reluctantly re-elected. The aggrieved lawmakers felt betrayed by his action as they expected him to also tender his resignation in tandem with the agreed structure for settling the Assembly crisis permanently. Obasa’s action opened a kind of cold war in the Assembly which is currently on indefinite recess.
Resignation not part of agreement
Meanwhile, the APC in Lagos has said that the issue of possible resignation by the Speaker was not included in the terms of settlement reached to end the leadership crisis.
The party’s spokesman in the state, Seye Oladejo, told Sunday Vanguard that he was not aware of such an arrangement in the terms of settlement during the negotiation period by the party.
“To the best of my knowledge there was no time the arrangement for Obasa to resign came up in the terms of settlement of the crisis.
“To me, all this struggle is all about instance, before any candidate would emerge there must have been sacrifice by others”, Oladejo stated.
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Rivers crisis: Adopt political solution, PANDEF tells Tinubu
Rivers crisis: Adopt political solution, PANDEF tells Tinubu
Last Tuesday’s consultation between President Bola Tinubu and leaders of the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), the mouthpiece of the traditional rulers, leaders, and stakeholders of the coastal states of the Niger Delta, held at the Council Chamber, Presidential Villa, Abuja, was absorbing as it was instructive.
The president made revealing comments on the political crisis in Rivers State, the first item the leaders of the South-South geopolitical zone presented for discussion. The matter practically dominated the entire time for the assembly, with Tinubu guaranteeing he would subsequently consider the other germane issues raised by the PANDEF leaders.
The PANDEF delegation was led by the Co-Chairman of the Board of Trustees (BoT) and a former military governor of the old Rivers State, King Alfred Diete-Spiff, and his counterpart, a former governor of Akwa-Ibom State, Obong Victor Attah.
As protocol required, they were seated and waiting for Tinubu when he sauntered in his emblematic flowing Agbada attire.
The National Chairman of PANDEF, Ambassador Godknows Igali; a former governor of Bayelsa State, Senator Seriake Dickson; Prof. Mike Ozekhome (SAN); a former governor of Cross River State, Mr. Liyel Imoke; a former deputy governor of Rivers State, Tele Ikuru; a former Managing Director of the NDDC, Mr Timi Alaibe; and the Jaja of Opobo, Prof. Dandeson Jaja, sat in compliance.
Also in the PANDEF entourage were Senator Ita Enang; Senator Bassey Henshaw; Mrs. Ibim Semenitari, a former acting Managing Director of the NDDC; Mr Uche Secondus; Senator Andrew Uchendu; Chairman of PANDEF in Delta State, and National Coordinator of Host Communities of Nigeria, HOSTCOM, Prince Okareme Maikpobi; Niger Delta activist, Ms. Ann-Kio Briggs; spokesman for PANDEF, Obiwevbi Ominimini; a former PANDEF spokesperson, High Highness Anabs Sara-Igbe; and Senator Lee Maeba.
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The president politely shook hands with Diete-Spiff, the Amanayabo (traditional ruler) of Twon-Brass in Bayelsa State, who sat close by before taking his seat.
When the Supreme Court delivered judgment on Rivers State enmeshment, it intensified efforts, and the Tuesday date was granted
The dialogue initially fixed for 1.00 pm was shifted to 3.00 pm, but it eventually started about one hour later.
The president requested a two-minute silence to honor Clark moments after the national anthem.
Call Wike and Fubara to order — PANDEF
The PANDEF came prepared for the meeting as it held an expanded national executive council meeting at the Transcorp Hilton, Abuja, more than three hours earlier on Monday to discuss the various issues presented the following day.
King Diete-Spiff started with some preliminary remarks, telling Tinubu that the leaders of the Niger Delta were in support of his government and his efforts to kindle the national economy.
“Your government has taken the bull by the horns, and we are sure you will succeed. We are here to give you our assurance and support. I can say now that God bless Nigeria and your government,” he said.
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Obong Victor Attah, in his remarks, naturally presented what would be termed PANDEF’s official statement to Tinubu in his characteristic expression.
The elder South-South leader, who chairs a high-level Peace and Reconciliation Committee inaugurated by PANDEF to handle the Rivers political crisis, told the president some home truths.
Either the president did not exhaustively scrutinize the lines or discounted the coded message on the Federal Capital Minister and former governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike.
The regional body indicated exasperation with Wike and the incumbent governor, Siminalayi Fubara, on the political crisis when it requested that Tinubu impress on the two feuding leaders to prioritize peace.
It was more of asking him to call Wike to order, but Fubara was included to balance the equation.
The statement read: “It is very commendable that the Governor of the State (referring to Siminalayi Fubara) has publicly expressed willingness to abide by the recent Supreme Court ruling.
“Tension is at boiling point, and urgent intervention is needed to prevent a full-blown crisis. Let us also not forget that our region is still recovering from protracted years of crisis, when the national economy equally suffered heavily.
“In light of this, we have proactively established a high-level Peace and Reconciliation Committee, chaired by Obong Victor Attah, with eminent members, including former military governor of Kwara State, Col. Pam Ogar; Senators Emmanuel Ibok Essien, Roland Owie, and Stella Omu; former Bayelsa State deputy governor, Rear Admiral G. John-Jonah (rtd); and Hon. Stella Dorgu”.
The PANDEF committee had made some progress but pointed out that “full cooperation from some remains elusive.” (The statement made no explicit reference to the elusive individuals.)
“We therefore urge you, Mr. President, to impress upon all stakeholders, particularly a member of your cabinet, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Chief Nyesom Wike, and the Governor of Rivers State, His Excellency, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, the necessity of prioritizing peace.
“An amicable resolution must be sought outside the courts, ensuring that no party is considered superior to the other, and that a win-win outcome is achieved.”
The National Chairman, Ambassador Igali, also made a short speech and presented a souvenir to the president on behalf of PANDEF
Rivers crisis: Adopt political solution, PANDEF tells Tinubu
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TCN, BEDC disagree on electricity supply problems in Delta communities
TCN, BEDC disagree on electricity supply problems in Delta communities
The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has denied claims by the Benin Electricity Distribution Company (BEDC) that its maintenance activities were responsible for BEDC’s inability to supply electricity to its 33kV customers in some parts of Delta State.
The denial was contained in a statement issued on Saturday by the TCN General Manager, Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah.
The statement was in reaction to BEDC’s March 14 social media publication, which linked power supply disruptions to maintenance work by TCN.
According to the statement by BEDC on Friday, the areas affected by power supply shortages include Abraka Commercial, Industrial Commercial, Ughelli/Shell, Sapele (Sapele), and Abraka.
The BEDC statement read in part: “Service Level Shortfall: March 14th 2025:
“Dear Valued Customer, We sincerely apologize for not meeting up with the required minimum service level of 20 hours on the feeder below.”
The distribution company listed the aforementioned areas and blamed TCN maintenance for the supply issues in these areas.
However, the transmission company clarified that it had only conducted a planned outage on March 11 at the Amukpe Transmission Station, which was completed the same day, with the bulk power supply restored immediately.
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“Contrary to BEDC’s claims, TCN’s maintenance activities did not cause the power delivery issues experienced by BEDC’s customers,” the statement read.
TCN acknowledged that the only accurate part of BEDC’s statement was the tripping of the Ughelli/Shell 33kV feeder T1 60MVA on March 14 due to a fault, which TCN is actively working to resolve.
However, it maintained that all other areas BEDC cited as experiencing power issues were affected by faults on BEDC’s 33kV feeders.
“The only accurate statement in BEDC’s publication was regarding the Ughelli/Shell 33kV feeder T1 60MVA, which tripped due to a fault on 14th March 2025. TCN is currently working to restore the bulk power supply to the affected feeder.
“It is essential to note that all other areas mentioned by BEDC in their release, experiencing power delivery issues, are a result of faults on their own (BEDC’s) 33kV feeders. TCN urges BEDC to please provide accurate information to its customers, stating facts as they are, for the benefit of all stakeholders,” the statement read further.
“TCN remains committed to ensuring efficient and reliable transmission of electricity nationwide,” the power distribution company concluded in its statement.
The transmission company urged BEDC to provide accurate information to its customers and avoid misrepresenting facts.
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