US–Iran Crisis Drives ₦5.13tn Oil Windfall for Nigeria

Nigeria has recorded an estimated ₦5.13 trillion surge in oil revenue within two months, driven by a sharp rise in global crude prices following escalating tensions linked to the United States–Iran geopolitical crisis. The development significantly exceeded projections in the Federal Government’s 2026 budget and temporarily strengthened fiscal inflows.

The crisis, which began with crude trading below $70 per barrel, triggered a sustained rally that pushed prices above $120 at some point, with Brent crude hovering around $110 per barrel and Nigeria’s premium grade, Bonny Light trading as high as $134 per barrel in recent sessions.

Nigeria’s 2026 budget was based on conservative oil assumptions, including a production target of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar. At these assumptions, projected daily oil revenue stood at about $116.73 million (₦163.42 billion). However, these projections were quickly overtaken as global market conditions shifted sharply.

In March, crude production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, below the target by about 250,000 barrels. Despite the shortfall, higher prices lifted earnings significantly. With an average crude price of $95.03 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,370 to the dollar, daily revenue rose to about ₦201.80 billion, creating a daily surplus of ₦38.38 billion and a total windfall of approximately ₦1.19 trillion for the month.

READ ALSO:

• 2027: Adelabu Mobilises APC Support, Rejects Oyo Consensus Candidate Claim
• Nigeria Clinches Historic 15th African Women’s Wrestling Title
• NiMet Forecasts Hazy Weather, Thunderstorms Across Nigeria
• FG Summons South African Envoy Over Xenophobic Attacks On Nigerians

Combined, March and April generated a total excess oil revenue of ₦5.13 trillion, with March contributing ₦1.19 trillion and April accounting for ₦3.94 trillion. Analysts note that this surge was driven mainly by higher global crude prices rather than increased production, underscoring Nigeria’s continued exposure to external oil market shocks.

Simulations show that without the price surge, earnings would have been significantly lower. At benchmark pricing, March revenue would have fallen to about ₦4.27 trillion equivalent, while April revenue would have stood at about ₦4.52 trillion equivalent, highlighting the scale of the windfall created by global price volatility.

Despite the increase in government revenue, Nigerians are experiencing rising fuel costs. Dangote Refinery recently adjusted gantry prices to about ₦1,275 per litre, while retail fuel prices have climbed to between ₦1,350 and ₦1,400 per litre across several locations. This has further increased transport and food inflation nationwide.

Nigeria’s crude pricing structure has also adjusted in response to global market movements, with key crude grades such as Bonny Light and Forcados recording notable price increases for May-loading cargoes. These adjustments reflect stronger international demand and tighter supply conditions.

Energy stakeholders have expressed concern that the revenue windfall is not translating into relief for citizens. Some industry operators warn that petrol prices could rise above ₦1,500 per litre if geopolitical tensions persist, while economists describe the situation as a “two-edged sword” that boosts government earnings but worsens cost-of-living pressures.

Calls have intensified for targeted government intervention, including direct support for vulnerable households, improved social welfare data systems, and measures to cushion the impact of rising transport and food costs. However, experts note that the absence of reliable national data continues to limit effective intervention.

Local refiners have also called for reforms in crude pricing for domestic supply, arguing that benchmarking local crude strictly to international prices inflates costs and undermines local refining operations. Economists have further suggested the adoption of a stable domestic pricing framework to reduce volatility in fuel prices.

Overall, while the ₦5.13 trillion oil windfall provides short-term fiscal relief, analysts warn it reinforces Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on volatile global oil markets. The situation highlights a recurring pattern in which external geopolitical tensions boost revenue while simultaneously increasing domestic economic pressure.

US–Iran Crisis Drives ₦5.13tn Oil Windfall for Nigeria

FG Summons South African Envoy Over Xenophobic Attacks On Nigerians

The Federal Government of Nigeria has summoned the Acting High Commissioner of South Africa following renewed concerns over xenophobic attacks, harassment of Nigerians and attacks on Nigerian-owned businesses in South Africa.

The diplomatic meeting is scheduled to hold on Monday, May 4, 2026, at the headquarters of Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Abuja.

The development was confirmed in a statement issued on Saturday by the ministry’s spokesperson, Kimiebi Ebienfa, quoting the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu.

According to the ministry, the meeting is aimed at formally expressing Nigeria’s deep concerns over recent developments in South Africa that could negatively affect the longstanding diplomatic relationship between both African nations.

Ebienfa explained that discussions during the meeting would focus on ongoing anti-foreigner protests in South Africa, as well as reported incidents involving the harassment of Nigerian nationals and attacks on businesses owned by Nigerians.

“The Ministry is aware of the growing discontent among Nigerians concerning the treatment of their nationals in South Africa,” the statement read.

“Nevertheless, the ministry implores the Nigerian public to remain calm and reiterates the Federal Government’s commitment to protecting the rights and well-being of Nigerian citizens residing in South Africa.”

READ ALSO:

• Nigerian Student Jailed 14 Years In Cyprus Over Sexual Assault Case
• Dangote Denies Rift With Tony Elumelu, Threatens Legal Action Over Viral Claims
• No Final Decision Yet — Kwankwaso Speaks On ADC Exit Rumours

The latest diplomatic move follows renewed reports of xenophobic demonstrations and anti-immigrant protests in parts of South Africa, particularly in communities where foreign nationals operate businesses.

Several videos circulating online in recent days allegedly showed protesters demanding the closure of businesses owned by foreigners, including Nigerians, while accusing immigrants of contributing to crime, unemployment and economic hardship.

The situation has sparked anxiety among Nigerians living in South Africa, with community leaders and advocacy groups reportedly urging both governments to take urgent steps to prevent escalation.

South Africa has experienced repeated outbreaks of xenophobic violence over the years, especially in 2008, 2015 and 2019, when many African migrants — including Nigerians, Zimbabweans, Ethiopians and Somalis — were attacked, displaced or killed during violent protests.

The 2019 attacks caused major diplomatic tension between Nigeria and South Africa after several Nigerian-owned businesses were destroyed and many citizens injured.

At the time, Nigeria boycotted the World Economic Forum on Africa held in South Africa and demanded stronger protection for Nigerians living in the country.

Despite the recurring tensions, Nigeria and South Africa remain two of Africa’s largest economies and maintain strong diplomatic, political and trade ties dating back to Nigeria’s support for South Africa during the anti-apartheid struggle.

South African authorities have also publicly condemned recent anti-foreigner violence. Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia reportedly warned that xenophobia, intimidation and attacks on foreign nationals would not be tolerated.

The Nigerian government reiterated its commitment to continued diplomatic engagement with South African authorities to ensure the safety, dignity and protection of Nigerians residing in the country.

FG Summons South African Envoy Over Xenophobic Attacks On Nigerians

Rejoinder: Criticism Is Not Campaigning — The Real Gap Is the Opposition

Dear Mr. Kperogi,

The suggestion that critical voices are, by default, “campaigning for Tinubu” feels like a convenient framing that sidesteps a more obvious reality. Criticism, in itself, is not endorsement. At most, it only translates into political advantage when there is a credible, prepared opposition capable of converting dissent into momentum. That crucial ingredient, at present, appears largely absent.

President Tinubu’s current position cannot be dismissed as accidental. It reflects years of calculated political engagement and a deep understanding of Nigeria’s complex, everyday realities. One may disagree with his policies or style, but it is difficult to ignore the strategic depth that underpins his political journey.

In contrast, what passes for opposition today raises legitimate concerns. Messaging is often fragmented, organisational structures appear weak, and there is a noticeable disconnect between political rhetoric and grassroots realities. The claim of wanting to “rescue” the nation rings hollow when not backed by visible structure, coherence, and sustained engagement.

READ ALSO:

• NDLEA Busts Abuja Drug Networks, Arrests 132 Suspects in Massive Raid
• May Day 2026: NLC, TUC Threaten Nationwide Shutdown Over Insecurity
• Peter Obi ‘Not a Serious Candidate for 2027’ — Former Supporter Declares

There is also an uncomfortable truth that deserves attention: meaningful political movements demand sacrifice. They are not built on convenience or fleeting outrage. Tinubu’s trajectory included years of persistence, investment, and endurance—even through periods of intense criticism and political uncertainty. By comparison, segments of the opposition seem to expect similar outcomes without demonstrating equivalent commitment or groundwork.

On your broader analytical framing, there is a perception—fair or not—of unevenness in how responsibility is assigned. The weight of criticism does not always appear balanced with adequate historical context, especially when assessing different administrations and regions. In a country like Nigeria, where governance is shaped by both formal institutions and informal political understandings, ignoring these nuances risks reducing analysis to what can be interpreted as positioning rather than objective critique.

To be clear, this is not about shielding any administration from scrutiny. Robust criticism is essential in a democracy. However, such criticism must be accompanied by balance, context, and a recognition of the broader political landscape.

So no, critics are not “helping Tinubu.” It only appears that way because the alternative has yet to demonstrate sufficient depth, cohesion, or readiness. Until that changes, the perception will persist—regardless of how it is framed.

That, in essence, is the matter.

Thank you for your consideration.

Mudashir ‘Dipo Teniola

Filmmaker/Journalist

Lagos, Nigeria

Rejoinder: Criticism Is Not Campaigning — The Real Gap Is the Opposition