International

Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC

Published

2 years ago

June 4, 2024

Trends Admin

The plan aims to wind down the war after eight months of fighting

Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC

For the leaders of both Hamas and Israel, ending the war in Gaza has become a deadly game of survival.

The terms on which the war finally ends could largely determine their political future and their grip on power. For Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, even his physical survival.

It’s partly why previous negotiations have failed. It’s also why the question of how to permanently end the fighting has been put off to the last stages of the plan outlined by US President Joe Biden on Friday.

That transition between talks on a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal to discussions about a permanent ceasefire would, Mr Biden acknowledged, be “difficult”.

But it’s also where the success or failure of this latest deal is likely to hinge.

The US says it has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council supporting the ceasefire plan outlined by President Biden. The three-phase plan involves an end to the conflict, the release of the hostages and reconstruction of the Palestinian territory.

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Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has strong domestic reasons for wanting to take this deal step by step.

Phase one, as outlined by Mr Biden, would see the release of dozens of hostages, both living and dead. That would be widely welcomed in a country where the failure to free all those held by Hamas is, for many, a glaring moral stain on Mr Netanyahu’s management of the war.

But Hamas is unlikely to give up its most politically sensitive hostages – women, wounded, elderly – without some kind of guarantee that Israel won’t simply restart the war once they’re home.

Leaks, quoted by Israeli media on Monday morning, suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu has told parliamentary colleagues that Israel would be able to keep its options open.

That option, to resume fighting – until Hamas is “eliminated” – is, some believe, the least Mr Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners will demand.

Without their support, he faces the prospect of early elections and the continuation of a corruption trial.

Mr Netanyahu needs to keep his long-term options open, to stand a chance of winning their support for any initial hostage deal. Hamas leaders, on the other hand, are likely to want permanent ceasefire guarantees upfront.

Previous deals have collapsed into this chasm. Bridging it now will depend on how much room for manoeuvre Mr Netanyahu has with his hard-right government allies to find alternatives to the “elimination” of Hamas – and how far Hamas leaders are prepared to consider them.

Mr Netanyahu talked over the weekend about the destruction of Hamas’s “military and governing capabilities” and ensuring that the group no longer posed a threat to Israel.

Few dispute that Hamas has suffered major losses to its military infrastructure – and even, some say, to its public support within Gaza and its control of the streets.

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But there’s no sign that Israel has killed or captured its top leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, and leaving them free in Gaza to celebrate the withdrawal of Israeli forces would spell political disaster for Israel’s embattled prime minister.

On Monday a US State Department spokesman said that although Hamas’s capabilities had “steadily degraded” in recent months, it remained a threat and the US did not believe the group could be eliminated militarily.

Meanwhile the White House said Mr Biden had “confirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the terms that have now been offered to Hamas” and said the Palestinian group was now the only obstacle to a deal.

Separately, military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the Israeli military would be able to ensure Israel’s security in the event of any truce agreed by the government.

However Yanir Cozin, diplomatic correspondent with Israel’s military radio station, GLZ, believes that Mr Netanyahu won’t end the war until he can frame it as a success.

“A deal that leaves Hamas is a big failure,” he said. “Eight months on, when you haven’t achieved any of the war goals – not finishing Hamas, bringing all the hostages back, or securing the borders – then he doesn’t want to end the war. But he also understands that he cannot leave it until the next Israeli election in 2026.”

“If he can say, ‘We exiled Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, they’re not living in Gaza’ – and if the people living close to Gaza and the northern border can go back – I think he can keep his government together. But it’s a lot of ‘ifs’.”

Hamas is very unlikely to agree to the exile or surrender of its top figures. But there are clear splits emerging between Hamas leaders inside and outside Gaza.

Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, who has also served as defence minister, told Israeli radio on Monday that President Biden had announced the deal “after seeing that Netanyahu only moves ahead when he’s certain that Sinwar will refuse”.

“How do you think Sinwar will react when he tends to agree and then he’s told: but be quick, because we still have to kill you after you return all the hostages,” he said.

In the meantime, tens of thousands of Israelis displaced after the Hamas attacks on 7 October are watching their prime minister’s next move.

Among them is Yarin Sultan, a 31-year-old mother of three who ran from her home in Sderot on Gaza’s border the morning after the Hamas attacks. She says she won’t go home until Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif are no longer free.

“This ceasefire will kill us,” she told the BBC. “We will free the hostages, but a few years from now you will be the next hostages, you will be the next people who get murdered, the women that are raped – all this will happen again.”

Gaza ceasefire plan turns deadly game of survival – BBC

BBC

International

Global Oil Market Shaken as UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

Published

14 hours ago

April 28, 2026

Trends Admin

Global Oil Market Shaken as UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has officially announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ alliance, ending more than five decades of membership in one of the world’s most powerful oil-producing blocs.

The decision, which takes effect on May 1, 2026, marks a major turning point in global energy politics and is expected to have significant implications for the global oil market, crude oil prices, and international energy supply coordination.

The announcement came ahead of a crucial OPEC meeting in Vienna, where member nations were expected to deliberate on production strategies amid rising geopolitical instability in the Middle East and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Suhail Al Mazrouei, described the withdrawal as a “policy-driven evolution” designed to align with the country’s long-term economic and energy interests.

According to him, the UAE remains committed to supporting global energy security while providing “reliable, responsible and lower-carbon energy supplies” to international markets.

Al Mazrouei also expressed appreciation to OPEC member states for decades of cooperation, noting that the UAE’s relationship with the organization had contributed significantly to global oil market stability over the years.

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Reports by the UAE state news agency, WAM, revealed that the decision followed an extensive review of the country’s future production strategy, investment plans, and national priorities.

Industry analysts say the UAE has increasingly sought greater flexibility in oil production after investing billions of dollars to expand its output capacity. The country is currently targeting production capacity of about five million barrels per day by 2027, a figure significantly above previous OPEC production quotas.

Experts believe the withdrawal could allow Abu Dhabi to independently increase oil production without being restricted by collective output agreements imposed by OPEC and OPEC+.

The development comes at a critical period for the global energy industry, as tensions linked to the ongoing Iran conflict continue to threaten stability in the Gulf region.

Recent disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes, have intensified concerns over global supply shortages and rising energy prices.

Energy market observers warn that the UAE’s exit could weaken OPEC’s ability to control global crude supply and maintain coordinated production cuts among member states.

The UAE has long been considered one of OPEC’s most influential members alongside Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran. Its departure is expected to trigger fresh debates about the future relevance and unity of the oil cartel, especially following the exits of Qatar and Angola in recent years.

Following the announcement, international oil prices experienced volatility as investors reacted to uncertainty surrounding future production coordination among major oil-producing nations.

Analysts say the move could ultimately reshape global oil dynamics, particularly if other member states begin reconsidering their participation in the alliance.

Global Oil Market Shaken as UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

International

Guterres Raises Alarm Over Rising Nuclear Risks at NPT Conference

Published

21 hours ago

April 28, 2026

Trends Admin

United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres

Guterres Raises Alarm Over Rising Nuclear Risks at NPT Conference

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has warned that the world is slipping into a dangerous state of “collective amnesia” over the risks of nuclear weapons, as global tensions and military build-ups continue to rise.

He made the remarks at the Eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), where countries gathered to review global progress on nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and peaceful nuclear cooperation.

Guterres said the meeting comes at a critical moment to protect humanity from the threat of nuclear annihilation, recalling that the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons dates back to the United Nations’ first General Assembly resolution in 1946.

He warned that the world is forgetting the lessons of the past, when nuclear fears shaped daily life—such as children practicing missile drills, governments building fallout shelters, and communities suffering from nuclear testing.

According to him, a “collective amnesia” has taken hold, allowing nuclear risks to resurface as mistrust grows between states and global arms control systems weaken.

The UN chief also highlighted that global military spending has reached $2.7 trillion, describing it as a massive imbalance compared to global development aid and equivalent to Africa’s entire GDP.

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He further warned that for the first time in decades, the number of nuclear warheads is increasing, while discussions about nuclear testing and weapons expansion are re-emerging in some countries.

Guterres cautioned that arms control frameworks are eroding and that international norms designed to prevent nuclear escalation are under severe strain.

He reminded world leaders of a key principle: that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, stressing that nuclear weapons do not provide security but instead increase global danger.

The Secretary-General described the NPT as the cornerstone of global nuclear governance, but warned that it is under pressure due to unfulfilled commitments, declining trust, and rising geopolitical tensions.

He urged countries to fully honour their obligations under the treaty without delay or conditions, while strengthening safeguards and supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in its monitoring role.

Guterres also stressed that the treaty must evolve to address emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, which could increase nuclear risks if not properly regulated.

He said future nuclear governance must ensure human control over nuclear weapons systems while also expanding access to peaceful nuclear technology for sustainable development.

The UN chief concluded by calling for renewed global commitment to disarmament, warning that the strength of the NPT depends on the political will of member states to uphold it.

He added that with stronger cooperation, the treaty can remain a foundation for a safer, nuclear-free world in an era of rapidly changing technology.

Guterres Raises Alarm Over Rising Nuclear Risks at NPT Conference

International

UN Condemns Xenophobic Attacks on Nigerians, Foreigners in South Africa

Published

21 hours ago

April 28, 2026

Trends Admin

Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres

United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres

UN Condemns Xenophobic Attacks on Nigerians, Foreigners in South Africa

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, has expressed deep concern over renewed xenophobic attacks in South Africa, including violence targeting Nigerians and other foreign nationals in parts of the country.

In a statement issued by UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, Guterres said he is “deeply concerned” by reports of xenophobic violence, harassment, and intimidation against migrants and foreign nationals in areas such as KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape Province. He strongly condemned the acts, describing them as criminal behaviour carried out by individuals inciting violence and taking advantage of socio-economic challenges.

The UN Secretary-General warned that violence, vigilantism, and hate speech have no place in any democratic society governed by the rule of law and respect for human rights. He stressed that such actions undermine social cohesion and threaten peace in diverse communities.

Guterres also recalled South Africa’s historical struggle against apartheid, noting that the country’s development was built on solidarity from across Africa and the world. He emphasized that migrants and foreign nationals have long contributed to South Africa’s social and economic growth.

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He further acknowledged statements from South African authorities affirming that no individual or group has the right to take the law into their own hands. According to the UN chief, those responsible for criminal acts must be properly investigated and held accountable under the law. However, he stressed that such investigations must be prompt, independent, thorough, and impartial to ensure justice and public trust.

While recognizing South Africa’s socio-economic challenges, Guterres said addressing such issues must be done lawfully and without discrimination. He urged authorities to ensure that human rights and human dignity are protected for all, including migrants and refugees.

The UN chief also welcomed South Africa’s commitment to tackling corruption in immigration systems, implementing its National Action Plan against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance, and strengthening follow-up mechanisms under UN human rights frameworks. He reiterated that law enforcement agencies must remain the sole authority in administering justice.

Guterres reaffirmed that the United Nations stands ready to support South Africa in efforts to de-escalate tensions, protect vulnerable groups, and strengthen social cohesion. He stressed that sustained community engagement, responsible leadership, accountability, and respect for human rights are essential to preventing further violence and preserving peace and stability.

South Africa has faced repeated waves of xenophobic violence in recent years, often linked to economic hardship, unemployment, and competition for resources. Foreign nationals, particularly Africans including Nigerians, have frequently been affected, resulting in deaths, displacement, and destruction of property.