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Naira depreciation: Analysts offer strategies for volatility mitigation

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Naira Strengthens Again, Narrowing Gap with Official Exchange Rate

Naira depreciation: Analysts offer strategies for volatility mitigation

Financial analysts are advocating for a re-evaluation of policies to safeguard the Nigerian Naira amid escalating forex rates, despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stabilize its value.

The recent decline in the Naira’s value across official and parallel markets has prompted suggestions from financial experts to mitigate currency volatility and prevent further depreciation.

The CBN had announced a series of measures aimed at enhancing transparency and stability in the foreign exchange market while addressing malpractices.

However, while the analysts acknowledge the positive aspects of the CBN’s recent policies aimed at managing pressures in the foreign exchange market, they highlight that these measures fail to directly address the fundamental issue of limited supply.

Analysts interviewed by Nairametrics in response to the Naira’s sharp decline following exchange rate harmonization propose reassessing the government’s foreign exchange management strategy.

They advocate for shifting towards a managed float system to allow flexibility in implementing initiatives to bolster foreign exchange reserves, such as boosting oil production, enhancing agricultural exports, and incentivizing foreign remittances.

Recent Performance of Naira 

Nairametrics reported that the foreign exchange turnover saw a significant rise of 76.61% to $117.32 million, coinciding with the Nigerian naira’s strengthening against the dollar in the official market on Tuesday, February 20th, 2024.    

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However, despite this improvement, the intra-day high remained elevated, reaching N1,701 against the dollar by the close of trading.  

  • The exchange rate settled at N1,551.24 to a dollar at the end of the business day. 
  • In contrast, the exchange rate experienced a decline in the black market, slipping to N1,700/$1, representing a 2.65% decrease compared to the previous day’s rate.   
  • The Great British Pound (GBP) closed at £1/N2120, a decline from £1/N2,040 recorded the previous day, this marks a notable decrease of 3.77% compared to the N2,040 rate recorded the previous day.  
  • In the cryptocurrency market where forex is sold using stablecoins, the Naira also settled at N1,802.44/$1.   

What market experts are saying: 

Financial analyst at FSL Securities Limited in an exclusive interview with Nairametrics, expressed concerns regarding the recent liberalization of the foreign exchange market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). 

Mr. Victor Chiazor, Head of Research and Investment, FSL Securities Limited he believe that the CBN were hasty in their decision to liberalise the foreign exchange market. 

Chiazor noted that the CBN’s approach lacked comprehensive consideration of the market’s dynamics, particularly in light of the persistent low supply.  

He highlighted that while recent policies implemented by the CBN aimed to alleviate pressures in the FX market, they failed to effectively address underlying supply constraints. 

Chiazor suggested that authorities might need to reassess their stance on foreign exchange management, potentially reverting to a more tightly managed floating exchange rate system.  

This approach, he explained, would afford policymakers the opportunity to concentrate on enhancing supply-side factors affecting FX, including increasing oil production, bolstering agricultural export revenues, and fostering foreign remittances.  

He emphasized the necessity for substantial and consistent inflows of FX, along with continuous augmentation of foreign reserves, for the sustainability of a free-floating Naira exchange rate. 

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Professor Uche Uwaleke, Nigerian First Professor of Capital Market and the Director of the Institute of Capital Market Studies at the Nasarawa State University Keffi who voiced concerns regarding the current state of the exchange rate, in an exclusive chat with Nairametrics suggested that presidential intervention is necessary. 

He highlighted that the increasing FAAC (Federal Account Allocation Committee) receipts are partially accountable for this situation. 

To address this issue, he recommends that the President convene an emergency meeting of the Council of States to collaborate with governors on strategizing how to manage excess FAAC receipts resulting from the devaluation of the naira. 

Uwaleke emphasized the importance of legislative action in this regard, advocating for the Executive to propose a Bill for a “By-Nigerian Law” and commit to enforcing its provisions. 

He highlighted a potential solution to mitigate the distortionary effects of FAAC receipts on the economy, suggesting the adoption of a separate fixed exchange rate, perhaps at N800/dollar as proposed in the 2024 budget, specifically for the monetization of crude oil sales. 

  • “This approach would essentially establish a dual exchange rate system, with the designated rate also applicable to external debt service.  
  • Meanwhile, all other transactions would continue to utilize the NAFEM rates,” he said. 

Uwaleke noted that he has consistently opposed the idea of floating the naira due to the fundamental weaknesses within the economy that cannot adequately support such a move. 

He pointed out that crude oil sales continue to play a significant role in generating foreign exchange receipts. 

Regarding the current situation, he acknowledged that the sudden unification of exchange rates, along with the subsequent devaluation of the naira and rising inflation, has made an increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unavoidable. 

However, he suggested that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) should opt for an incremental approach rather than implementing drastic measures. 

Also, in an interview with Nairametrics, Mr. David Adonri, Executive Vice Chairman of Hicap Securities Limited, attributed the current volatility and depreciation of the currency to a significant supply-demand imbalance. 

 Adonri emphasized that bridging the supply gap hinges on increasing crude oil exports to meet OPEC quotas and cater to domestic refinery demands. 

 Additionally, he underscored the importance of diversifying activities that contribute to foreign currency supply and boosting domestic production to reduce reliance on imports. 

Adonri cautioned against the overuse of monetary policy tools, noting their diminishing effectiveness in curbing demand pressures for foreign currency. 

Instead, he advocated for the establishment of a transparent, credible, and market-driven foreign exchange market by the monetary authority. 

 Adonri criticized the current forex market for its inability to achieve exchange rate convergence or eliminate illicit transactions. 

The Chief Executive Officer, of Wyoming Capital and Partners, Mr. Tajudeen Olayinka said that the CBN should understand that the black market they are chasing is a different market for different customers. 

Olayinka noted that it would be difficult to unify the two different markets without eliminating the differences in the two markets. 

  • “Black market is a free fund market or market that is free from documentation. Unless you can create a convergence from those differences, you cannot truly unify the exchange rate in the real sense of it,” he said. 

Naira depreciation: Analysts offer strategies for volatility mitigation

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Oil prices surge near $85 per barrel as escalating US-Iran conflict fuels global supply fears

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Oil prices surge near $85 per barrel as escalating US-Iran conflict fuels global supply fears

Oil prices surge near $85 per barrel as escalating US-Iran conflict fuels global supply fears

Global oil prices surged by about 14 per cent to nearly $85 per barrel on Tuesday as escalating military hostilities between the United States and Iran intensified fears of prolonged disruptions to global crude supplies and heightened concerns over energy security.

The sharp rally pushed Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to $84.37 per barrel, up from $76.01 recorded on Sunday. The latest gains extend a strong upward trend that began earlier in the week as investors reacted to renewed military exchanges between Washington and Tehran and growing uncertainty surrounding oil exports from the Middle East.

Market sentiment was further shaken after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic oil shipping routes. Approximately 20 per cent of global crude oil supplies pass through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a significant threat to international energy markets and global economic stability.

Analysts said fears that the conflict could escalate further prompted traders to increase purchases of crude futures, anticipating tighter global supplies and higher energy costs in the coming weeks.

The rally was also supported by uncertainty over US trade and sanctions policies. In a post on his Truth Social platform, US President Donald Trump announced that he had abandoned a proposed 20 per cent cargo reimbursement fee for vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, opting instead for broader trade and investment agreements with Gulf states.

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According to Trump, Gulf nations have agreed to make “massive” investments in the United States, describing the proposed arrangements as beneficial to both sides. The announcement came after earlier proposals to impose restrictions on Iranian ports had raised concerns about further disruptions to global shipping and crude exports.

Despite the policy shift, energy markets remained focused on the broader geopolitical risks posed by the conflict, including potential attacks on oil infrastructure, tighter sanctions against Iran and prolonged instability across the Gulf region.

The latest price rally marks a dramatic reversal from the downward trend seen in recent weeks. Brent crude had fallen to around $72 per barrel amid easing geopolitical tensions, increased production by OPEC+ members and concerns over slowing global demand before rebounding sharply as tensions between the United States and Iran intensified.

Energy market analysts said the renewed conflict has restored a substantial geopolitical risk premium to crude prices, with investors closely monitoring developments around the Strait of Hormuz and their potential impact on global oil supplies.

Olufemi Idowu, Partner at Kreston Pedabo, said while higher crude prices could boost Nigeria’s earnings, the increase was not yet sufficient to trigger a significant rise in domestic petrol prices.

“I do not expect any major upward review in the local pump price of petrol because oil prices are still significantly lower than the level we had during the war,” he said.

For Nigeria, the sharp increase in crude prices comes at a favourable time as the country records its strongest oil production performance in more than six years.

According to figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s average daily crude oil and condensate production rose by 2.3 per cent to 1.74 million barrels per day in June, compared with 1.70 million barrels per day in May.

The combination of stronger production and higher international crude prices could significantly improve Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange inflows and government revenues if the rally is sustained.

However, economists caution that persistently higher oil prices could also increase global inflationary pressures, raise transportation and manufacturing costs and increase the cost of importing refined petroleum products into oil-importing countries.

Investors are expected to keep a close watch on military developments in the Middle East, diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and shipping activity around the Strait of Hormuz, as any further disruption could trigger additional volatility in global energy markets.

Oil prices surge near $85 per barrel as escalating US-Iran conflict fuels global supply fears

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Carloha Nigeria Unveils Nationwide 6-6-7 Rescue Service, Extends Free Roadside Assistance Beyond Chery Owners

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Carloha Nigeria Unveils Nationwide 6-6-7 Rescue Service, Extends Free Roadside Assistance Beyond Chery Owners

 

Carloha Nigeria, the authorised distributor of Chery vehicles in Nigeria, has launched the CarlohaCare 6-6-7 Rescue Initiative, a nationwide emergency roadside assistance programme aimed at providing prompt and professional support to motorists stranded by vehicle breakdowns on highways and major roads across the country.

The 24-hour rescue service, which is available through a dedicated emergency hotline, reinforces the company’s commitment to enhancing vehicle ownership by ensuring that trained rescue professionals are on standby to respond to emergencies whenever they occur.

The auto firm says motorists in need of assistance can reach the CarlohaCare Rescue Team by calling 07000 667 667, after which a professionally trained crew will be dispatched to provide support.

While response times would depend on location and road accessibility, the company assured that every distress call would receive professional attention.

The rescue programme is the latest addition to Carloha Nigeria’s award-winning CarlohaCare 6-6-7 aftersales package, which earned the company the Most Outstanding Aftersales Car Company award at the Nigeria Auto Journalists Association (NAJA) Awards.

The package offers a six-year manufacturer’s warranty, six years of free scheduled maintenance and a seven-day repair promise.

Under the repair guarantee, customers are provided with a courtesy vehicle if repairs extend beyond seven working days due to parts availability or other qualifying circumstances.

The new rescue initiative now takes that commitment beyond the workshop to the roadside.

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Speaking on the development, Carloha Nigeria’s After-sales Manager, Samson Akinbowale, said the initiative was designed to give motorists greater confidence by ensuring help is always within reach.

“Vehicle breakdowns can occur unexpectedly and often create stressful situations for motorists. With the CarlohaCare 6-6-7 Rescue Initiative, our customers can enjoy peace of mind knowing that a dedicated team of trained professionals is available around the clock to provide prompt assistance whenever they need it,” he said.

Akinbowale added that the programme also includes on-location maintenance support to minimise vehicle downtime for both individual motorists and fleet operators.

Also speaking, the company’s General Manager, Marketing, Felix Mahan, described the initiative as another milestone in Carloha Nigeria’s customer-focused strategy.

“The CarlohaCare 6-6-7 Rescue Initiative is an extension of our vision to provide a superior ownership experience and eliminate the worries that come with vehicle ownership. We want every Chery owner to know that help is always just a phone call away,” Mahan said.

In a move the company described as an industry first in Nigeria, Carloha Nigeria announced that for a limited period, the free roadside rescue service would also be available to owners of non-Chery vehicles, subject to operational capacity. Chery owners, however, will continue to receive priority during periods of high demand.

According to Mahan, the decision reflects the company’s commitment to improving road safety and supporting the wider motoring community.

“We have the team, the trucks and the expertise. When our rescue fleet has spare capacity, it is our responsibility to deploy those resources to keep Nigeria’s roads moving, regardless of the vehicle brand. By extending this service beyond our customers, we are contributing to safer roads and setting a new benchmark for aftersales support in the Nigerian automotive industry,” he said.

Non-Chery motorists requiring assistance can call the same emergency hotline to confirm eligibility at the time of request. The company also advised motorists to follow its official social media platforms and website for updates on service availability and coverage areas.

Beyond emergency rescue and towing, the initiative provides on-location maintenance and technical support for individual motorists and fleet operators, where applicable. Carloha Nigeria said the service is expected to reduce workshop visits, minimise vehicle downtime and give motorists greater peace of mind on Nigerian roads.

 

Carloha Nigeria Unveils Nationwide 6-6-7 Rescue Service, Extends Free Roadside Assistance Beyond Chery Owners

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Dangote ends naira fuel sales, pegs petrol at $0.779 per litre in major pricing shift

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Dangote ends naira fuel sales, pegs petrol at $0.779 per litre in major pricing shift

Dangote ends naira fuel sales, pegs petrol at $0.779 per litre in major pricing shift

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has officially transitioned to United States dollar-denominated sales of refined petroleum products, ending naira-based transactions for most products and introducing a new pricing regime expected to significantly influence fuel prices, petroleum marketers and Nigeria’s deregulated downstream oil sector.

Under the new pricing template, which took effect on Monday, July 13, 2026, the refinery fixed the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, at $0.779 per litre. It also pegged the price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, at $1.087 per litre, while aviation fuel (Jet A-1) will now sell at $0.942 per litre. Coastal deliveries of petrol have also been priced at $1,044.62 per metric tonne.

The development marks one of the most significant commercial policy changes by the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery, effectively ending the naira-denominated fuel sales introduced under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude initiative, which commenced on October 1, 2024, to encourage domestic refining, reduce pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves and stabilise fuel prices.

In a circular issued to petroleum marketers and customers, the refinery announced that all previously issued naira-denominated Proforma Invoices (PFIs) and Deal Recaps for both gantry and coastal transactions had become invalid following the transition to dollar transactions.

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The notice, signed by the refinery’s Group Commercial Operations, instructed customers not to make payments against any cancelled naira invoices, stating that all future purchases would be settled exclusively in United States dollars.

According to the refinery, the revised pricing structure applies to petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) remains exempt and will continue under its existing payment arrangement.

Industry experts say the transition reflects changing commercial realities facing the refinery, particularly the increasing use of dollar-denominated crude oil supply contracts.

Sources familiar with the development explained that although the refinery previously sold a substantial volume of its refined petroleum products in naira, a growing percentage of the crude oil it processes is now being purchased in dollars.

The resulting mismatch between procurement costs and sales revenue reportedly exposed the refinery to significant foreign exchange risks, especially amid persistent volatility in global crude oil prices and fluctuations in the naira exchange rate.

One senior industry source said the imbalance had become increasingly difficult to sustain.

“Dangote Refinery is receiving fewer naira-denominated crude cargoes while more crude supplies are being paid for in dollars. Continuing to sell refined products largely in naira created significant exchange-rate exposure that became commercially unsustainable.”

Energy analysts believe the refinery’s latest decision aligns its operations with international petroleum trading standards, where crude oil and refined petroleum products are predominantly traded in US dollars.

They note that the new policy is expected to improve the refinery’s financial stability by reducing exchange-rate losses while enhancing its competitiveness in regional and international export markets.

However, the move is also expected to have important implications for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Since independent marketers and bulk distributors will now purchase products in dollars, foreign exchange movements are expected to play a more direct role in determining wholesale fuel prices.

Although the refinery has introduced dollar benchmark prices, industry stakeholders emphasise that Nigerians will continue to buy petrol at filling stations in naira.

Retail pump prices will therefore depend on several variables, including the prevailing naira-to-dollar exchange rate, international crude oil prices, transportation and logistics costs, depot charges, regulatory fees, taxes and marketers’ operating margins.

The policy shift has also reignited debate over the future of the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude programme, which was designed to encourage domestic refining, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and conserve scarce foreign exchange.

Industry observers say the effectiveness of the policy has weakened in recent months as increasing volumes of crude supplied to local refiners gradually reverted to dollar-based transactions.

Some analysts argue that unless crude oil allocations to domestic refineries are consistently supplied under naira-based arrangements, maintaining naira-denominated fuel sales may become increasingly difficult.

Since commencing commercial production, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has rapidly become Nigeria’s largest producer and supplier of refined petroleum products, significantly reducing the country’s reliance on imported petrol, diesel and aviation fuel.

The refinery has also expanded exports to several African countries, positioning Nigeria as an emerging regional refining hub.

Market analysts believe the transition to dollar pricing further integrates the refinery into the global petroleum market and reinforces the growing influence of international oil prices and exchange-rate stability on domestic fuel costs.

While marketers are expected to adjust to the new commercial framework, economists say exchange-rate management will now play an even more critical role in determining the affordability of fuel for Nigerian consumers.

The latest development underscores the increasing importance of macroeconomic stability, foreign exchange liquidity and crude oil supply arrangements in shaping the future of Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum market.

Dangote ends naira fuel sales, pegs petrol at $0.779 per litre in major pricing shift

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