Business
Nigeria May Slip Into Recession as Budget Deficit Hits N30.58trn In Seven Years
The budget deficit has risen to at least N30.58tn in the last seven years.
This is according to data from budget implementation reports for the third and fourth quarters of 2015; the four quarters of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020; the first three quarters of 2021; and the first four months of 2022.
According to Investopedia, a budget deficit occurs when expenses exceed revenue.
An analysis of the reports on the Budget Office of Nigeria’s website revealed that Buhari’s administration had spent at least N54.98tn on budget implementation since its inception but has only financed this spending with N24.39tn, leaving a deficit of N30.58tn.
A breakdown of some of the expenses revealed that the present administration had spent at least N23.66tn on personnel costs, pensions, overhead costs, presidential amnesty programme, other service-wide votes, and special interventions.
A minimum of N14.13tn has been spent servicing domestic and foreign debts, and at least N10.47tn has been spent on capital expenditure.
According to the reports, this deficit financing has been largely financed by government borrowing. The budget implementation report for Q4, 2015 said, “The FGN has arranged to raise short-term credit from the CBN through the mechanism of Ways and Means subject to a ceiling of 12.5 percent of FGN’s revenue.
“This amount will be retired and therefore not considered as new borrowing outside the borrowing approved to finance the budget deficit. However, due to current fiscal challenges, the CBN had agreed to increase the Ways and Means advances threshold hence the FGN’s ability to raise N615.96bn from this source.”
Since allowance for raising the ceiling was made, total borrowing from the CBN has hit N19.01tn in April 2022 from N648.26bn as of June 2015.
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Also, the nation’s total debt profile hit N41.06tn as of March 2022 from N12.12tn, according to the Debt Management Office.
A document titled ‘Public Consultation on the Draft 2023 – 2025 MTFF/FSP’ presented by the Minister of Finance, Budget & National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, said, “Revenue generation remains the major fiscal constraint of the federation. The systemic resource mobilization problem has been compounded by recent economic recessions.”
Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria raised concerns over the nation’s debt sustainability. It said the Federal Government’s debt profile was worrying and noted that there was a need for it to urgently diversify its revenue base.
Commenting on the story, economists stated that a high deficit was not good for the economy and might cause inflation, recession, and slow down growth.
Speaking to a reporter, an economic expert, and seasoned academic at the University of Uyo, Professor Akpan Ekpo, said, “This shows that expenditure has eclipsed the revenue, because they have to borrow, which is why there is a deficit.
“They can’t raise enough domestic resources to finance spending. That gap is a deficit. Talking about GDP, by the rules, it should not be more than a certain percentage of GDP, but it has exceeded that. And when you borrow, you have expectations of borrowing because if you are not transparent, we don’t know what you are borrowing for.
“If you are borrowing to finance recurrent and overhead, it is not good for the economy. If you borrow to finance capital projects, in the long run, even if you have a deficit, it will have a positive multiplier effect. The deficit, if it is used to finance recurrent, is problematic to the economy.
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“One way of solving that is to raise more of domestic revenue or cut down on expenditure that is not needed, especially, the cost of governance. There is a need to check the expenditure profile and cut down on it. Or we could do expenditure switching, where unimportant items are switched with important items.
“We are spending more than we can raise resources and we are not spending it on hard infrastructure.”
Associate professor of Economics at the Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos, Olalekan Aworinde, added that the deficit was being financed by either government borrowing, sales of government properties, or printing money.
According to him, any of these options had implications for the economy. He stated, “Loans can be good and can be bad. A loan is good if it is used for productive expenditure, but if it is used for recurrent expenditure or consumption expenditure, this is not bringing back any returns.
“If the component of this deficit is majorly recurrent expenditures, it shows that we are unlikely to have any growth. There isn’t going to be any revenue coming out from there. The implication of this is that we are likely going to have stunted growth. Stunted growth in the sense that we are not likely going to have an increase in the total values of goods and services that are produced in the country.
“If care is not taken, we are likely going to slide into recession.”
He added that financing the deficit through sales of government properties would mean the government was reducing its asset base, which did not speak well for the economy.
NPO
Business
PH refinery to blend 1.4-million litre petrol daily – NNPC
PH refinery to blend 1.4-million litre petrol daily – NNPC
Rehabilitated old Port Harcourt refinery is currently operating at 70 per cent of its installed capacity, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has said.
The Port Harcourt Refining Company (PHRC) operates two refineries: the old refinery with a capacity of 60,000 barrels per stream day (bpsd) and a new refinery with an installed capacity of 150,000 bpsd.
The NNPCL in a statement on Tuesday, said it planned to increase the operation to 90 per cent of the refinery’s capacity.
“The Board and Management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) express heartfelt appreciation to Nigerians for their support and excitement over the safe and successful restart of the 60,000 barrels-per-day Old Port Harcourt Refinery,” the statement reads.
“This achievement marks a significant step forward after years of operational challenges and underperformance.
“We are, however, aware of unfounded claims by certain individuals suggesting that the refinery is not producing products. For clarity, the Old Port Harcourt Refinery is currently operating at 70% of its installed capacity, with plans to ramp up to 90%.”
According to NNPC, the refinery has commenced production of daily outputs of straight-run petrol (naphtha), which is blended into 1.4 million litres of petrol.
The national oil company said the refinery has also started producing 900,000 litres of kerosene per day and 1.5 million litres per day of diesel.
The NNPC said 2.1 million litres daily volume of low-pour fuel oil (LPFO) would also be produced at the refinery, adding that additional volumes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will be refined at the plant.
“It is worth noting that the refinery incorporates crack C5, a blending component from our sister company, Indorama Petrochemicals (formerly Eleme Petrochemicals), to produce gasoline that meets required specifications,” NNPC said.
“Blending is a standard practice in refineries globally, as no single unit can produce gasoline that fully complies with any country’s standards without such processes.”
Additionally, the NNPC said it has made substantial progress on the new Port Harcourt refinery, “which will begin operations soon without prior announcements”.
“We urge Nigerians to focus on the remarkable achievements being realized under the able and progressive leadership of President Bola Tinubu and to support efforts aimed at delivering more dividends to the nation,” the energy firm said.
According to the statement, malicious attacks on “clear progress” only undermine the “significant strides made by NNPC Ltd and the country”.
Business
PH refinery: 200 trucks will load petroleum products daily, says Presidency
PH refinery: 200 trucks will load petroleum products daily, says Presidency
No fewer than 200 trucks are set to load petroleum products at the government-owned Port Harcourt Refinery, the presidency has said.
A presidential spokesperson, Sunday Dare, made this known in a statement through his official X handle on Tuesday.
Newstrends had reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company on Tuesday announced that Port Harcourt Refinery has resumed operations and crude oil processing after years of inactivity.
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Reacting, Dare said, “200 trucks are expected to load products daily from the refinery, Renewing the Hopes of Nigeria.”
He added that “the Port Harcourt refinery has two wings.
“The Old Refinery comes on stream today with an installed production capacity of 60, 000 barrels per day of crude oil.”
PH refinery: 200 trucks will load petroleum products daily, says Presidency
Business
Breaking: CBN increases interest rate to 27.50%
Breaking: CBN increases interest rate to 27.50%
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised the lending interest to 27.50 per cent from 27.25 per cent.
This latest increase in the Monetary Policy Rate came after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Monday and concluded Tuesday.
The Monetary Policy Rate measures the benchmark interest rate.
The CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso, announced this in Abuja on Tuesday after the MPC meeting, last for the year, held at the apex bank’s headquarters.
He said the MPC voted unanimously to raise the MPR by 25 basis points from 27.25% to 27.50%; and retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 50% for Deposit Money Banks and 16% for Merchant Banks.
The CBN governor also said the MPC retained the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30% and Asymmetric Corridor at +500/-100 basis points around the MPR.
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