Business
Nigeria May Slip Into Recession as Budget Deficit Hits N30.58trn In Seven Years
The budget deficit has risen to at least N30.58tn in the last seven years.
This is according to data from budget implementation reports for the third and fourth quarters of 2015; the four quarters of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020; the first three quarters of 2021; and the first four months of 2022.
According to Investopedia, a budget deficit occurs when expenses exceed revenue.
An analysis of the reports on the Budget Office of Nigeria’s website revealed that Buhari’s administration had spent at least N54.98tn on budget implementation since its inception but has only financed this spending with N24.39tn, leaving a deficit of N30.58tn.
A breakdown of some of the expenses revealed that the present administration had spent at least N23.66tn on personnel costs, pensions, overhead costs, presidential amnesty programme, other service-wide votes, and special interventions.
A minimum of N14.13tn has been spent servicing domestic and foreign debts, and at least N10.47tn has been spent on capital expenditure.
According to the reports, this deficit financing has been largely financed by government borrowing. The budget implementation report for Q4, 2015 said, “The FGN has arranged to raise short-term credit from the CBN through the mechanism of Ways and Means subject to a ceiling of 12.5 percent of FGN’s revenue.
“This amount will be retired and therefore not considered as new borrowing outside the borrowing approved to finance the budget deficit. However, due to current fiscal challenges, the CBN had agreed to increase the Ways and Means advances threshold hence the FGN’s ability to raise N615.96bn from this source.”
Since allowance for raising the ceiling was made, total borrowing from the CBN has hit N19.01tn in April 2022 from N648.26bn as of June 2015.
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Also, the nation’s total debt profile hit N41.06tn as of March 2022 from N12.12tn, according to the Debt Management Office.
A document titled ‘Public Consultation on the Draft 2023 – 2025 MTFF/FSP’ presented by the Minister of Finance, Budget & National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, said, “Revenue generation remains the major fiscal constraint of the federation. The systemic resource mobilization problem has been compounded by recent economic recessions.”
Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria raised concerns over the nation’s debt sustainability. It said the Federal Government’s debt profile was worrying and noted that there was a need for it to urgently diversify its revenue base.
Commenting on the story, economists stated that a high deficit was not good for the economy and might cause inflation, recession, and slow down growth.
Speaking to a reporter, an economic expert, and seasoned academic at the University of Uyo, Professor Akpan Ekpo, said, “This shows that expenditure has eclipsed the revenue, because they have to borrow, which is why there is a deficit.
“They can’t raise enough domestic resources to finance spending. That gap is a deficit. Talking about GDP, by the rules, it should not be more than a certain percentage of GDP, but it has exceeded that. And when you borrow, you have expectations of borrowing because if you are not transparent, we don’t know what you are borrowing for.
“If you are borrowing to finance recurrent and overhead, it is not good for the economy. If you borrow to finance capital projects, in the long run, even if you have a deficit, it will have a positive multiplier effect. The deficit, if it is used to finance recurrent, is problematic to the economy.
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“One way of solving that is to raise more of domestic revenue or cut down on expenditure that is not needed, especially, the cost of governance. There is a need to check the expenditure profile and cut down on it. Or we could do expenditure switching, where unimportant items are switched with important items.
“We are spending more than we can raise resources and we are not spending it on hard infrastructure.”
Associate professor of Economics at the Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos, Olalekan Aworinde, added that the deficit was being financed by either government borrowing, sales of government properties, or printing money.
According to him, any of these options had implications for the economy. He stated, “Loans can be good and can be bad. A loan is good if it is used for productive expenditure, but if it is used for recurrent expenditure or consumption expenditure, this is not bringing back any returns.
“If the component of this deficit is majorly recurrent expenditures, it shows that we are unlikely to have any growth. There isn’t going to be any revenue coming out from there. The implication of this is that we are likely going to have stunted growth. Stunted growth in the sense that we are not likely going to have an increase in the total values of goods and services that are produced in the country.
“If care is not taken, we are likely going to slide into recession.”
He added that financing the deficit through sales of government properties would mean the government was reducing its asset base, which did not speak well for the economy.
NPO
Aviation
Disaster averted as bird strike hits Abuja-Lagos Air Peace flight
Disaster averted as bird strike hits Abuja-Lagos Air Peace flight
An Abuja-Lagos flight was on Thursday aborted following a bird strike on the airplane belonging to Air Peace, forcing the authorities to ground the aircraft.
The bird strike experienced in the early hours reportedly prompted a ramp return to ensure the safety of passengers onboard.
All the passengers quickly disembarked and were calmed down before they were moved into another plane for the one-hour journey.
A bird strike is a collision between a bird and an aircraft, or other airborne animal, while the aircraft is in flight, taking off, or landing. And it can be a significant threat to aircraft safety.
Air Peace in a statement by its Head of Corporate Communications, Ejike Ndiulo, said the bird strike occurred at 6:30am, and all passengers disembarked normally.
The statement read, “We wish to inform our esteemed passengers that our Abuja- Lagos 06:30 flight experienced a bird strike before take-off, prompting a ramp return as a safety measure. All passengers disembarked normally.
“We have deployed a replacement aircraft for the affected flight in order to minimize disruptions, thus ensuring that passengers continue their journeys promptly.
“We appeal for the understanding of our valued passengers impacted by this development, as well as those on other flights that may experience delays.
“At Air Peace, we are committed to providing safe, comfortable, and reliable air travel for all our passengers.”
Business
NNPC achieves 1.8mbpd crude oil production
NNPC achieves 1.8mbpd crude oil production
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and its partners have revved up crude oil and gas production to 1.8million barrels per day (mbpd) and 7.4standard cubic feet per day (scfd).
The company which announced this at a press briefing said the feat was achieved in compliance with the mandate of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Speaking on the development, the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Mele Kyari, congratulated the Production War Room Team that anchored the production recovery process.
“The team has done a great job in driving this project of not just production recovery but also escalating production to expected levels that are in the short and long terms acceptable to our shareholders based on the mandates that we
have from the President, the Honourable Minister, and the Board,” Kyari explained.
Giving details of the efforts of the Production War Room, the Chief War Room Coordinator and Senior Business Adviser to the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Lawal Musa, disclosed that the feat was achieved through the collaborative efforts of Joint Venture and Production Sharing Contract partners, the Office of the National Security Adviser, as well as government and private security agencies.
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He said the interventions that led to the recovery of production cut across every segment of the production chain with security agencies closely monitoring the pipelines.
He stressed that when the Production War Room team was inaugurated on 25th June 2024, production was at 1.430mbpd, but the team swung into action, culminating into sustaining the production recovery to 1.7mbpd in August and hitting the current 1.808mbpd in November.
“We are confident that with this same momentum and with the active collaboration of all stakeholders, especially on the security front, we can see the possibility of getting to 2mbpd by the end of the year,” he stated.
Also speaking on the development, Chairman of the NNPC Ltd Board of Directors, Chief Pius Akinyelure, who also congratulated the team, said he was happy to be part of the production recovery process, adding: “today, I will leave this place with my heart full of joy”.
He charged the Company’s Management to come up with a cashflow projection based on the new production figures to facilitate planning, stressing that he was looking forward to further production increase to 3mbpd.
On his part, the Honourable Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, expressed satisfaction with the performance of the team and pledged the Federal Government’s support for the company to do more.
NNPC achieves 1.8mbpd crude oil production
Business
FG gets fresh $134m loan from AfDB for agric projects
FG gets fresh $134m loan from AfDB for agric projects
The Federal Government has secured a loan facility of $134million from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to help farmers boost seeds and grain production in the country.
This is contained in a statement issued by Anthonia Eremah, Chief Information Officer, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, on Thursday, in Abuja.
Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Sen. Abubakar Kyari, made his know at the unveiling of the 2024/2025 National Dry Season Farming in Calabar, Cross River State capital.
Kyari explained that with the re-introduction of the national dry season farming to boost year-round agricultural production, the loan would be handy and guarantee national food security in the country.
The minister said the initiative is under the National Agricultural Growth Support Scheme-Agro Pocket (NAGS-AP) Project.
He said the federal government had declared an emergency on food production to enable all Nigerians to get easy access to quality and nutritional food at affordable rates.
Kyari also said government wants to use the agricultural sector for national economic revival through increase in production of some staple food crops such as wheat, rice, maize, sorghum, soybean, and cassava during both dry and wet season farming.
He added that 107,429 wheat farmers were supported under phase 1 of the 2023/2024 dry season, and 43,997 rice farmers under the second phase of the 2023/2024 dry season.
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The minister said recently, government supported 192,095 rice, maize, sorghum/millet, soyabean and cassava farmers under the 2024 wet season across the 37 States including the FCT.
He said Cross River was leading 16 other states in wheat production, adding that over 3000 wheat farmers have been listed to benefit from the support to grow the grain.
Kyari noted the Cross River government’s commitment to wheat production.
He said it informed why the federal government is partnering with the state to kick start the maiden wheat production and enlisting them among states commencing the current 2024/2025 dry season farming.
“The 2024/2025 dry season farming, the project is targeted to support 250,000 wheat farmers across the wheat-producing states with subsidised agricultural inputs.
“This is to cultivate about 250,000 hectares with an expected output of about 750,000 metric tonnes of wheat to be added to the food reserve to reduce dependence on importation of the product and also increase domestic consumption.
“Equally the programme will provide support to 150,000 rice farmers under the second phase to cover all the 37 states, including FCT, with an expected output of about 450,000 metric tonnes,” he said.
FG gets fresh $134m loan from AfDB for agric projects
(NAN)
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