International

Young men trapped between war and conscription in Myanmar’s Rakhine

Published

2 years ago

June 21, 2024

The renewed fighting is the latest crisis to hit Rakhine which endured waves of communal violence in the years before the coup [AFP]

Young men trapped between war and conscription in Myanmar’s Rakhine

Since war resumed in his native Rakhine State last November, Thura Maung has seen his options narrow.

The 18-year-old, from the state’s ethnic Rakhine majority, first fled his home in the coastal town of Myebon in December, when clashes between the military and autonomy-seeking Arakha Army – formerly known as the Arakan Army – seemed imminent.

He and his family escaped by boat, travelling along river inlets at night to avoid being seen by the military. They returned a few days later, but fled twice more over the following months as the fighting escalated.

By February, the military and AA were battling for control over Myebon, and Thura Maung could hear shelling from the village where he had taken shelter. The military had also blocked the movement of goods and shut down the internet in areas affected by the conflict, leaving his family struggling to make ends meet.

With his university effectively closed due to the fighting, he felt his dreams slipping away. “There were no opportunities for my life to develop, and I saw no future,” he said.

It’s a feeling shared by Zubair, an ethnic Rohingya from Rakhine State’s northern Maungdaw township. The 24-year-old was doing an internship with a civil society organisation focused on peacebuilding when the fighting broke out and his office closed.

Soon, he was running from the war as well as a military conscription drive targeting Rohingya men. “We weren’t able to stay at home, go to work or even sleep on time,” he said. “Time that we could’ve spent working on our futures was wasted.”

Zubair and Thura Maung are part of a new generation of young people across Myanmar whose lives have been turned upside down by the 2021 military coup. In Rakhine State, people had already lived through years of communal conflict and a brutal 2017 military crackdown on the mostly Muslim Rohingya. The escalating violence between the military and AA has only made matters worse, according to Karen Simbulan, a human rights lawyer specialising in conflict sensitivity in Rakhine.

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“With the most recent renewed fighting and the looming threat of forced conscription, many who had persisted and stayed in Rakhine despite everything are seeing their futures taken away from them,” she said. “Many are taking significant risks to flee to safety, often putting themselves in highly vulnerable situations just to survive.”

Al Jazeera spoke with four young men from Rakhine State about the effects of the conflict on their lives. They have all been given pseudonyms to protect their safety.

‘Stirring up communal tensions’

The renewed fighting is the latest crisis to hit Rakhine State, home to Daingnet, Mro, Khami, Kaman, Maramagyi, Chin and Hindu minorities as well as the Rohingya, and the mostly Buddhist Rakhine majority. A category four cyclone hit the region last May, following successive waves of violence in the decade leading up to the coup.

In 2012, mobs of ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya people attacked each other with sticks and knives and burned each other’s homes, leaving dozens dead and some 140,000 forced from their homes. Afterwards, the military imposed tough restrictions on Rohingyas’ movement and access to services, while continuing to deny them citizenship under a discriminatory 1982 law.

The situation deteriorated dramatically in 2016 and 2017 when the military killed thousands of Rohingya civilians and committed widespread sexual violence and arson following attacks on military outposts by a Rohingya armed group. Its “clearance operations” in northern Rakhine State drove more than 750,000 people into neighbouring Bangladesh, and the crackdown is the subject of continuing genocide proceedings at the International Court of Justice.

The AA stepped up its fight for autonomy in late 2018; over the next two years, Rakhine State endured some of the most intense armed clashes seen in Myanmar in decades. The military also indiscriminately bombed and shelled civilian areas, committing what Amnesty International identified as war crimes.

The military and AA reached an informal ceasefire in November 2020, just three months before the generals seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Weeks later, the military cracked down on peaceful protests across Myanmar with gunfire and arrests. An armed uprising soon followed; by mid-2021, all-out war had erupted across the country.

Existing ethnic armed organisations trained and fought alongside anti-coup People’s Defence Forces (PDF), but the AA mostly stayed out of the fray, instead focusing on establishing governance mechanisms in its territory through its administrative wing, the United League of Arakan.

That changed last October, when the AA joined ethnic armed groups fighting on Myanmar’s eastern border with China to launch Operation 1027 declaring their intent to eradicate “oppressive military dictatorship”. Within weeks, they had seized strategic territory and other resistance groups were launching new offensives across the country. On November 13, the AA brought the war to Rakhine soil with coordinated attacks on military positions.

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The AA and its allies have since driven out the military from most of central and northern Rakhine State as well as Paletwa township in neighbouring Chin State. Following tactics it has long used to punish communities harbouring armed resistance, the military has retaliated with full-scale attacks on AA-controlled and contested areas by air, land and water while cutting off transit routes, communication channels and access to medical care for entire populations.

Hundreds of civilians have been injured or lost their lives and more than 185,000 people displaced across Rakhine State and Paletwa since November out of more than three million that the United Nations says have been displaced across the country, mostly as a result of the coup.

Through its forced conscription of Rohingya men as well as by demanding they protest against the AA, the military is also deliberately working to threaten years of fragile progress towards reconciliation between Rakhine and Rohingya communities, according to Simbulan, the conflict sensitivity specialist.

“The military is once again resorting to stirring up communal tensions because it is desperately losing ground in Rakhine,” she said. “As the expected de facto authority in Rakhine, the AA needs to heed its own words that this is a military tactic to divide communities, and not fall into the trap the military has set.”

Fear of conscription

Zubair, in Maungdaw, said that the conflict and military conscription drive left him feeling like the military was attempting to “destroy our Rohingya youth … from every angle”.

Since November, he has repeatedly been forced to flee his home due to the conflict. “Our village was attacked a lot, so we moved to another village which was less attacked,” he said. By February, he was also running from military conscription. Human Rights Watch reported in April that the military had used methods including false offers of citizenship, nighttime raids and abduction at gunpoint to conscript at least 1,000 Rohingya men, some of whom it sent to fight on the front lines against the AA.

In Maungdaw, Zubair said he had been unable to sleep since military soldiers took his neighbours from their home one night in March because he was fearful he might be next. The military was also blocking the roads between villages, leaving him and other young people with few places to go. “We ran inside the village,” said Zubair. “When we heard that [soldiers] were coming from one direction, we ran in another.”

Then, the military ordered the Maungdaw hospital to close, leaving Zubair’s father, who needs to use an inhaler because of a respiratory disease, unable to access medical care.

By April, heavy fighting between the military and AA had reached Rakhine State’s northern townships, alongside a series of devastating arson attacks across neighbouring Buthidaung township whose perpetrator remains disputed.

With a fight for control over Maungdaw looming, Zubair and his parents sneaked across the Naf river into Bangladesh one night at the end of May.

Now staying in the world’s largest refugee camp, Zubair rarely leaves his shelter, fearing that he could be robbed by other camp residents or arrested by Bangladeshi police, who sent back more than 300 people between February and April, according to the research and advocacy group Fortify Rights.

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“I need to be cautious every time I go outside,” he told Al Jazeera.

After escaping to nearby villages, Thura Maung, the Rakhine youth, also left the state due to the conflict. On February 9, he travelled by boat for two days to the state capital of Sittwe, and then boarded a plane bound for Myanmar’s largest city of Yangon.

He landed to find a city in chaos. While he was in transit, the military had announced plans to activate conscription from April, prompting a mass exodus from areas under its control. Thura Maung, who had planned to enrol in language classes in Yangon, could not find a course accepting new students and also feared conscription himself. So a week later, he began the trip back to Myebon, which had just been captured by the AA.

As soon as his flight touched down in Sittwe, however, he was arrested at the airport along with the other passengers on his flight. Held without charge at a Buddhist religious centre, military soldiers took his mugshot, interrogated him and searched through his phone.

He is among hundreds of people who have been detained by the military while travelling to or within Rakhine State since February. In March, the military also ordered travel agents and bus operators to stop issuing tickets to Rakhine State natives.

While these actions may have been intended to stop the flow of information and recruits to the AA, for Thura Maung, they had the opposite effect. Nearly a week after he was arrested, he sneaked away and headed towards an AA camp. “I felt lost,” he said. “I attempted to enter the AA without letting my parents know, because I thought it was the only certain thing I could do.”

A relative talked him out of it, however; now back in Myebon, where he is safe from military conscription because the AA controls the town, he still fears he could become the next victim of the military’s attacks. “I feel safer living in Myebon, but I still have to worry about air strikes,” he said.

‘Survival is my priority’

Tun Tun Win, a 24-year-old ethnic Rakhine, was also arrested at Sittwe airport. He had been attending language classes in Yangon when fighting broke out between the military and AA; although he had initially stayed in the city, he changed his plans in February. “Although there is ongoing conflict in Rakhine, I felt more secure living with my family than living alone in Yangon under the conscription law,” he said.

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Fleeing one danger, however, he was soon caught up in another. Like Thura Maung, soldiers took him away at the airport and interrogated him for several days at a Buddhist religious centre before he managed to sneak away. Now back home in Myebon, he faces a new set of struggles. “Currently, survival has become my priority rather than pursuing my ambition and plans,” he said.

Arkar Htet, a 27-year-old ethnic Rakhine from a village on the outskirts of Sittwe, also saw his plans fall apart after the conflict broke out. He was running an online delivery service and working as a dance instructor but stopped both after the military imposed a nighttime curfew and stepped up its surveillance and arrests. “I feared going outside even in the afternoon,” he said.

But even at home, he did not feel safe. As the military and AA battled for control over the town of Pauktaw, 30 kilometres (19 miles) northeast, military shells whizzed over his roof, as well as jet fighters on their way to bomb the town.

By January, the AA controlled Pauktaw, but the military had burned most of it down. As the fighting shifted to areas around Sittwe, Arkar Htet and his family fled by boat on February 29. Stray fire injured a passenger on the way; back in the city, about a dozen people died when shelling hit a portside market.

Arkar Htet and his family managed to reach a village under the AA’s control in Ponnagyun township, and in early April, he told Al Jazeera that he felt “70 percent safe”.

Less than two months later, on May 29 and 30, the military raided Byaing Phyu village, just a few kilometres from the village from which Arkar Htet had fled. According to the AA, military forces killed 72 civilians and raped three women; the military has denied the claims.

Then on June 1, the military bombed a village in Ponnagyun township next to the one where Arkar Htet had taken shelter, killing two civilians. Al Jazeera has been unable to get in touch with him since.

Young men trapped between war and conscription in Myanmar’s Rakhine

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

International

Rising Debt, Oil Shock Could Trigger Global Slowdown, IMF Warns

Published

8 hours ago

April 15, 2026

Trends Admin

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Rising Debt, Oil Shock Could Trigger Global Slowdown, IMF Warns

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that rising global debt, persistent oil price shocks, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could significantly weaken the world economy, with total public debt projected to reach 100 per cent of global GDP by 2029.

The warning was contained in the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, which highlighted growing fiscal vulnerabilities across both advanced and developing economies as high interest rates, weak revenue growth, and rising borrowing costs continue to strain government budgets worldwide.

The Fund said the combination of energy price volatility, increasing debt servicing costs, and geopolitical instability is placing governments under mounting pressure, especially in emerging and developing economies that rely heavily on imported energy.

The IMF projected that global public debt rose to 93.9 per cent of GDP in 2025, up from 92 per cent in 2024, and is expected to rise further to 100 per cent by 2029, marking the highest level since the aftermath of World War II. It further warned that debt could continue increasing beyond that level, potentially reaching 102.3 per cent of GDP by 2031 if current trends persist.

According to the report, rising debt levels are being driven by structural spending pressures such as ageing populations, climate-related investments, higher defence and security spending, and increasing interest payments. Interest costs alone now account for nearly 3 per cent of global GDP, compared to about 2 per cent four years ago, significantly reducing fiscal flexibility for many governments.

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The IMF also cautioned that prolonged disruptions in global oil supply, driven by escalating Middle East tensions, could push crude oil prices above $100 per barrel through 2027, increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession. Energy market instability, the Fund noted, remains one of the fastest channels through which geopolitical shocks impact inflation, trade, and household living costs.

The report also warned governments against introducing broad-based fuel subsidies in response to rising energy prices. Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, Rodrigo Valdés, said such policies distort market signals and could worsen global energy imbalances.

Instead, he recommended targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households, arguing that energy prices must reflect real supply conditions to allow for proper market adjustment.

Valdés stressed that while governments face political pressure to shield citizens from rising fuel costs, suppressing prices could delay necessary demand adjustments and worsen long-term instability in energy markets.

The IMF further highlighted emerging risks in global debt markets, including the growing influence of non-traditional investors such as hedge funds, which may be less stable during periods of financial stress. It also pointed to declining debt maturities, which increase countries’ vulnerability to short-term interest rate fluctuations and refinancing risks.

Additional fiscal pressures identified in the report include rising security expenditures, climate change adaptation costs, and increased debt servicing obligations, all of which are limiting governments’ ability to build fiscal buffers.

The Fund also warned that global trade fragmentation, political instability, and potential market corrections in fast-growing sectors such as artificial intelligence could further tighten global financial conditions and slow economic growth.

Despite these risks, the IMF stressed that the world is not yet in a full-blown debt crisis. However, it warned that delays in implementing fiscal reforms could lead to more severe economic corrections in the future.

“We’re not at a crisis point, but the more countries delay adjustment measures, the steeper the eventual correction,” Valdés said.

The IMF urged governments to begin implementing credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans, improve revenue mobilisation, and ensure more efficient public spending once immediate economic pressures ease, stressing that restoring fiscal buffers is essential for long-term stability.

Rising Debt, Oil Shock Could Trigger Global Slowdown, IMF Warns

International

Over 250 Feared Dead as Migrant Boat Capsizes En Route to Malaysia

Published

11 hours ago

April 15, 2026

Trends Admin

Over 250 Feared Dead as Migrant Boat Capsizes En Route to Malaysia

More than 250 migrants, including Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi nationals, are feared dead after a crowded boat capsized in the Andaman Sea, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration.

The vessel, described as a wooden trawler, reportedly departed from Bangladesh en route to Malaysia before it sank last week due to heavy winds, rough seas, and overcrowding, highlighting the dangers associated with irregular migration routes in Southeast Asia.

The exact time of the incident remains unclear, but on April 9, a Bangladesh-flagged vessel rescued nine survivors who had been “clinging to drums and wooden debris” to stay afloat. According to coast guard officials, the migrants had left Bangladesh on April 4 “in search of a better life” before their boat was caught in a storm around April 7 or 8.

Survivors were later picked up in the early hours of April 11 by the motor tanker Meghna Pride, which was travelling towards Indonesia. They were subsequently handed over to Bangladeshi authorities after being transferred to a coast guard vessel.

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One of the survivors, Rafiqul Islam, said he spent about 36 hours drifting at sea, recounting the harrowing ordeal and the desperation that pushed him to embark on the journey in search of economic opportunities in Malaysia.

Reports indicate that survivors saw dozens of people struggling in the water, but authorities say the exact number of passengers remains unknown, with no confirmed trace of the missing victims or the wreckage so far.

The tragedy is closely tied to the ongoing Rohingya crisis, which has forced hundreds of thousands to flee Myanmar since a military crackdown in 2017. Denied citizenship and facing systemic persecution, many Rohingya have taken refuge in overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, where poor living conditions and limited humanitarian support continue to drive risky migration attempts.

Malaysia remains a preferred destination due to perceived economic opportunities and cultural ties, but the journey is often deadly. Boats used for such trips are typically overcrowded, unsafe, and lack basic necessities, leading to frequent maritime disasters.

In a joint statement, the UN agencies warned that the incident underscores the consequences of protracted displacement, worsening humanitarian conditions, and lack of durable solutions for refugees.

They also noted that ongoing violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine State has diminished hopes of safe return, forcing many to risk their lives at sea.

The agencies called on the international community to increase support for refugees and address the root causes of displacement, stressing the need for safe, voluntary, and dignified return pathways for the Rohingya.

The latest disaster adds to a growing list of deadly migrant boat tragedies in the region, raising fresh concerns about human trafficking networks, border policies, and humanitarian response gaps across Southeast Asia.

Over 250 Feared Dead as Migrant Boat Capsizes En Route to Malaysia

International

World Leaders Gather in Paris Over Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Published

1 day ago

April 14, 2026

Trends Admin

Prime Minister Keir Starmer

World Leaders Gather in Paris Over Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will this Friday co-host an emergency international summit in Paris aimed at securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following escalating tensions that have disrupted one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The announcement by Downing Street comes amid growing global concern over the closure of the narrow maritime passage, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and serves as a vital route for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Rising Tensions and Global Impact

The crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has intensified in recent days, with heightened military posturing and reported threats to commercial shipping raising fears of a broader regional conflict. Although officials have yet to publicly confirm the precise trigger for the disruption, analysts point to ongoing geopolitical friction involving Iran and Western allies.

Energy markets have already begun reacting, with oil prices experiencing volatility amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Industry experts warn that any sustained blockage could trigger inflationary pressures globally, affecting fuel prices, manufacturing, and food supply chains.

Focus of the Paris Summit

Diplomatic sources indicate that the Paris summit will bring together leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and key global stakeholders, including representatives from maritime security alliances.

Top on the agenda will be:

Immediate de-escalation of tensions in the Gulf
Coordinated naval security to protect commercial vessels
Diplomatic engagement with regional actors
Frameworks to guarantee long-term stability in the waterway

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A joint UK-French statement emphasized the urgency of collective action, noting that “freedom of navigation is essential to global economic stability.”

Strategic Importance of the Strait

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most geopolitically sensitive chokepoints in the world. At its narrowest, it is just about 33 kilometers wide, yet it handles massive daily shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.

Any disruption to this route not only threatens energy security but also risks drawing in global powers with strategic interests in the region.

International Reactions

Several governments have expressed support for the initiative by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, describing the summit as a critical step toward preventing further escalation.

The United Nations has also called for restraint and dialogue, urging all parties to prioritize diplomatic solutions over confrontation.

Outlook

While expectations remain cautious, diplomats say the summit could serve as a turning point in easing tensions and restoring safe passage through the Strait. However, much will depend on the willingness of key regional actors to engage constructively.

With global markets on edge and geopolitical risks mounting, Friday’s meeting in Paris is being closely watched as a test of international cooperation in the face of a rapidly evolving crisis.