Opinion
Farooq Kperogi : October surprise in American presidential elections
Farooq Kperogi : October surprise in American presidential elections
Several faithful readers of this column who have followed it from the mid-2000s in the Weekly Trust have asked me to spice up my columns with occasional commentaries on American politics and culture, which was the column’s dominant thematic preoccupation in its earliest incarnation.
This year’s presidential election offers an opportunity to do that. This week I want to explore a phenomenon called the “October Surprise” in American presidential elections about which I had written 16 years ago when Barack Obama and John McCain squared off.
An “October Surprise” is any dramatic last-minute event, typically in October but occasionally a little later than October, that swings the election to the disadvantage of a leading candidate. Such dramatic events are believed to have the potential to influence the outcome of the election by swaying public opinion or shifting the narrative around the candidates.
October surprises symbolize the unpredictable nature of the final stretch of the presidential campaign and the high stakes involved in influencing the electorate.
Before talking about what this presidential election year’s October Surprise will be, I want to reference previous notable “October Surprises” and how they influenced the outcome of past elections.
The term “October Surprise” was coined during the 1980 presidential election between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter (the only president my state of Georgia has produced). A year before Election Day, radical Iranian students had invaded the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Iran, and held the Americans they found there hostage.
President Carter worked throughout the campaign to secure the release of the American hostages during which eight American servicemen were killed.
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According to the Associated Press, “Critics say the Reagan team was so concerned that Carter would gain a boost by winning their release just before the election, that his campaign manager and others negotiated privately with the Iranians to ensure that did not happen.” This cost Carter the 1980 election.
But before October Surprise became entrenched in America’s political lexicon beginning in 1980, it happened eight years earlier. In 1972, according to American presidential historians, President Richard Nixon’s administration announced a potential breakthrough in the Vietnam peace talks, which bolstered Nixon’s re-election prospects. The war was a sticking point in the country.
During the 2000 presidential election, the October Surprise was a damning revelation that George W. Bush had been arrested for driving while he was drunk. It’s called DUI (i.e., driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs) here. It negatively impacted his image among voters, which probably caused him to lose the popular vote—and only narrowly win the Electoral College vote.
Bush became president only because of America’s strange, archaic, and convoluted system of electing presidents, which deprives voters of the opportunity to directly elect their presidents. He was declared president because he won the then battleground state of Florida by 537 votes out of nearly six million cast, which gave him the state’s Electoral College votes.
In the final weeks of the 2004 election, all the major polls predicted that John Kerry would defeat Bush. He was a bumbling, incompetent president who was very unpopular.
Then Osama bin Laden allegedly issued a videotape that criticized Bush and warned U.S. voters that “your security is in your own hands” in the election.
“It changed the entire dynamic of the last five days,” Kerry told newsmen in 2008. “We saw it in the polling. There was no other intervening event. We saw the polls freeze and then we saw them drop a point, because all the security moms, it agitated people over 9/11.”
There was also an October Surprise in the 2008 presidential election that nearly torpedoed Obama’s lead and punctured his campaign’s overweening confidence. On October 30, 2008, conservative British newspaper TimesOnline broke the news of Obama’s late father’s half-sister, identified as Zeituni Oyango, living in the United States illegally and that she first came to the U.S. on the invitation of Obama.
The woman was mentioned in Obama’s best-selling autobiography Dreams From My Father.
She was invited by Obama to the United States to witness his swearing-in as a U.S. senator. She returned to Kenya after Obama’s inauguration and came back again on her own. She applied for asylum, but her application was rejected and was ordered to be deported back to Kenya.
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But she somehow escaped and had been living in the slums of Boston. The TimesOnline story initially did not gain traction in the United States until the Associated Press pounced on it and added a fresh dimension: that Obama’s aunt was not only here illegally but had contributed money to the Obama campaign, which violates America’s campaign laws, which stipulate that only U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents can contribute to political campaigns.
The news dramatized Obama’s “otherness” in more concrete ways than the McCain camp had tried vainly to do. Because AP’s reporting showed that the woman contributed up to $265 to the Obama campaign even though she was neither a U.S. citizen nor a lawful permanent resident, she helped to feed the Republican Party-inspired allegations that Obama’s unprecedented financial buoyancy was consequent on his receiving illegal donations from non-Americans.
What saved Obama was that Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, fell for a cheap prank by two well-known Canadian comedians by the names of Marc-Antoine Audette and Sebastien Trudel who go by the stage name “the Masked Avengers.”
They put a call through to Sarah Palin, which she picked. One of the comedians pretended to be then French president Nicholas Sarkosky. Palin believed him. And she went on for over 5 minutes discussing inane issues with the “French president.” The conversation further betrayed her shallowness and ignorance of foreign policy issues.
This dominated the news cycle days before the election. Sarah Palin’s inability to detect that she was being tricked even in the face of so many red flags during the conversation had the effect of canceling out the scandal of Obama’s aunt living illegally in the US and making illegal donations to Obama’s campaign. (Obama’s aunt later became a legal permanent resident in 2010 but died four years later).
Finally, in the 2016 presidential election, FBI Director James Comey announced that a renewed investigation had been launched into Hillary Clinton’s email practices. This became a major talking point just 11 days before the election, which some argued influenced the final vote. Although she defeated Donald Trump by three million votes, America’s Electoral College system caused her to lose the presidency.
So what might be the October Surprise in this year’s presidential election? It’s hard to tell, particularly because Donald Trump is not a conventional candidate. He is the most morally flawed, most openly racist, and most explicitly psychologically damaged presidential candidate America has had in recent memory. Yet nothing seems to stick to him.
He once boasted that he could murder someone in broad daylight in the streets of New York and nothing would happen to him. He is what Americans call a “Teflon candidate.” Teflon is a substance used to cover the surface of cooking utensils, etc. in order to prevent extraneous substances from sticking to them).
If any candidate should be fearful of an October Surprise, it should be Vice President Kamala Harris, whom polls favor to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote and make history as the first woman to be president of the United States.
Had the attempt on Trump’s life taken place in October, that would have been the October Surprise that would hand him the presidency. Some people think it may happen again next month.
Farooq Kperogi : October surprise in American presidential elections
Farooq Kperogi is a renowned Nigerian columnist and United States-based professor of journalism.
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Opinion
Saudi Executions: Truth Behind Viral Kissing Claim
Saudi Executions: Truth Behind Viral Kissing Claim
A Muslim scholar, Mallam Ibrahim Agunbiade, has urged the public to exercise caution over viral claims that two Bangladeshi nationals executed in Saudi Arabia were a married couple killed for kissing inside the Grand Mosque in Makkah, saying available official information does not establish the allegation.
In an article dated October 22, 2026, Agunbiade, a member of Al-Rabwa Islamic Propagation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, said the execution of the two Bangladeshis on October 14 had generated widespread controversy, particularly on social media, where claims about the circumstances of their deaths circulated without sufficient verification.
He said the Saudi Ministry of Interior announced that the individuals, identified as Nazrul Islam Abdul Basir and Siti Akhtar, also known as Sweety Akhtar, had been convicted of committing an indecent act inside a mosque in Makkah and sentenced to death under ta’zir, a category of punishment determined under the applicable Islamic legal framework.
According to Agunbiade, the Saudi authorities stated that the judgments had received the necessary judicial approval and that a royal order had authorised the executions.
However, he noted that the ministry’s announcement did not specify the precise act for which the two were convicted or state that they were executed for kissing on the forehead, as alleged in viral social media posts.
The scholar said the distinction was important because claims that the deceased were a married couple who had been punished for kissing inside the Grand Mosque had not been substantiated by the publicly available official statement.
Citing a report published by Bangladesh’s The Daily Star on October 20, Agunbiade said a confidential consular memorandum reportedly indicated that the two were not married but had worked as cleaners for the same company in Saudi Arabia.
He added that the memorandum reportedly stated that Nazrul was detained in August 2023 under Saudi Arabia’s cybercrime law, while Sweety was detained the following day over an allegation of adultery.
Agunbiade said the available information did not explain how the earlier allegations related to the offence subsequently cited in the Saudi government’s execution announcement.
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He further disclosed that Nazrul’s parents had told Bangladeshi media that their son was unmarried and that the family did not know the woman involved.
The Bangladeshi government has reportedly requested copies of the court judgments and further clarification from Saudi authorities, according to the account presented by the scholar.
He said the documents would be important in establishing the precise offences, the evidence considered by the courts and the circumstances surrounding the convictions.
Until the judgments and additional official explanations become available, Agunbiade advised the public against presenting the claims that the pair were newlyweds or were executed specifically for kissing inside the mosque as established facts.
Islamic teachings on the sanctity of mosques
Beyond the controversy surrounding the executions, Agunbiade emphasised that Islam attaches great importance to the sanctity of mosques and appropriate conduct in places of worship.
He cited Qur’an 72:18, which states: “And the mosques are for Allah, so do not invoke anyone along with Allah.”
According to him, the verse underscores the sacred purpose of mosques as places devoted to the worship of Allah.
He also referred to a narration in Sahih Muslim concerning the purposes of mosques, including the remembrance of Allah, prayer and the recitation of the Qur’an.
Agunbiade said Muslims should respect these sacred spaces and avoid behaviour that distracts worshippers or undermines their religious purpose.
However, he cautioned against using religious teachings to justify the circulation of unverified allegations or drawing conclusions about a criminal case without sufficient evidence.
Qur’an warns against spreading unverified information
The scholar said the controversy also highlighted the importance of verifying information before sharing it, particularly when reports involve criminal allegations, religious sensitivities and the lives of individuals who can no longer respond to claims made about them.
He cited Qur’an 49:6, which instructs believers to investigate information brought by an unreliable source before acting upon it.
The verse states: “O you who believe, if a rebellious person comes to you with information, investigate it.”
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Agunbiade also cited a narration in the introduction to Sahih Muslim, commonly numbered Hadith 5, which warns that a person may be considered a liar if they narrate everything they hear.
He said the teachings were particularly relevant in an era when sensational claims could spread rapidly across social media platforms, often reaching large audiences before journalists or other responsible parties had established their authenticity.
According to him, journalists, religious commentators and members of the public have a duty to distinguish verified facts from allegations, speculation and unconfirmed accounts.
He warned that repeating a claim without checking its authenticity could mislead the public, damage reputations and inflame religious or social tensions.
Calls for clarification should not be confused with rejection of justice
Agunbiade also addressed questions surrounding the judicial proceedings that resulted in the executions, saying the reported request by the Bangladeshi government for copies of the judgments and further clarification deserved attention.
He cited Qur’an 16:90, which states that Allah commands justice and excellence, to underline the importance of fairness and accountability.
The scholar argued that seeking clarification about a criminal case should not automatically be interpreted as rejecting a court’s judgment.
Rather, he said, understanding the precise offence, the evidence presented and the circumstances of the proceedings was essential to an informed assessment of the case.
He also cautioned against drawing conclusions from the timing of the executions alongside international political developments, saying that the coincidence of events did not, by itself, establish a connection.
Any such suggestion, he maintained, would require credible supporting evidence.
Facts must be separated from speculation
Agunbiade concluded that the information presented in the Saudi Ministry of Interior’s announcement established that two Bangladeshi nationals had been executed after being convicted of an indecent act inside a mosque in Makkah.
However, he stressed that the announcement, as described in his article, did not substantiate the viral claim that the two were a married couple executed specifically for kissing on the forehead inside the Grand Mosque.
He called for responsible reporting and urged the public to avoid treating unverified social media narratives as confirmed accounts of the case.
The scholar said respect for the sanctity of mosques should go hand in hand with respect for truth, justice and responsible journalism.
As questions remain about the precise offence and the circumstances of the proceedings, the full court judgments and further official clarification from the relevant authorities would be necessary to establish a more complete account of the case.
The allegations circulating online should therefore be distinguished from the information confirmed in the publicly described official announcement, pending the release of further details.
Saudi Executions: Truth Behind Viral Kissing Claim
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Opinion
OPINION: Who Still Needs the NYSC? — By Bola Bolawole
OPINION: Who Still Needs the NYSC? — By Bola Bolawole
The recent abduction of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members travelling from Ibadan, Oyo State, to orientation camps in the South-East and South-South has once again raised a difficult question: does Nigeria still need the NYSC in its present form?
The question is not new, but the latest incident has made it more urgent.
On October 1, two buses conveying NYSC members and other passengers from Ibadan to Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, and Bende, Abia State, were attacked by suspected armed men in Imo State. The police subsequently reported that 10 victims had been rescued, while efforts continued to establish the exact number of people still in captivity.
If the abducted young Nigerians travelled from Ibadan, some of them could be from Oyo and neighbouring South-West states, although victims may also have come from other parts of the country. The incident should therefore concern Nigerians collectively.
Governors whose citizens are affected should not leave the matter entirely to the Federal Government. Even where they do not directly control the police or military operations, they can support affected families, communicate with them and provide whatever assistance falls within their powers.
Questions over police handling
There are also serious questions about how information concerning the operation was handled.
The Imo State Commissioner of Police, CP Audu Bosso, disclosed that security operatives had located the kidnappers’ camp but were unable to immediately advance because intelligence indicated that the area had been mined with explosives. He also spoke about the use of drones and preparations for further operations.
That raises an important question about the disclosure of sensitive operational information while a rescue operation is still ongoing.
Security agencies must communicate with the public, but such communication should not inadvertently expose operational strategies, locations or vulnerabilities that could assist criminals.
The media, too, must exercise responsibility. The desire to break news or attract traffic should never override the safety of victims or security personnel.
Why was NYSC established?
The National Youth Service Corps was established by Decree No. 24 of May 22, 1973, following the Nigerian Civil War.
According to the NYSC, the scheme was created to promote national unity and develop common ties among Nigerian youths. Its broader purpose was to encourage young Nigerians to serve communities outside their immediate cultural and geographical environments.
The idea was understandable.
Nigeria had just emerged from a devastating civil war. The wounds were still fresh, distrust among different sections of the country was considerable, and there was an urgent need to rebuild bridges.
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The NYSC was therefore conceived as an instrument of reconciliation, integration and national development.
But more than five decades later, we must ask whether the circumstances that gave birth to the scheme still exist in the same form — and whether the scheme is achieving its original objectives.
Fifty-three years later, what has changed?
The NYSC has undoubtedly produced benefits.
Millions of young Nigerians have lived and worked outside their home states, interacted with people from different ethnic and religious backgrounds and contributed to communities through their primary assignments and community development projects.
For many Nigerians, NYSC remains one of the few institutions where young people from different parts of the country experience Nigeria beyond their immediate environments.
But the challenges have also become enormous.
Over the years, corps members have died in road accidents while travelling to their places of primary assignment or during their service year. More recently, insecurity, terrorism, banditry and kidnapping have introduced an additional and frightening dimension to the risks confronting young Nigerians serving their country.
The latest abduction therefore forces us to ask:
For how long should young graduates be compelled to travel long distances and serve in places where their safety cannot be guaranteed?
And more importantly:
Is the present structure of the NYSC still the best way to promote national unity?
Has the NYSC achieved its central objective?
After more than five decades of the NYSC, Nigeria continues to struggle with ethnic suspicion, regional grievances and demands for greater autonomy or restructuring.
The emergence of groups such as MASSOB and IPOB in the South-East, alongside various self-determination and restructuring movements in other parts of the country, suggests that the challenge of national cohesion has not disappeared.
The South-West, too, has witnessed the emergence of different groups advocating varying forms of restructuring and self-determination.
These developments do not necessarily mean that the NYSC has failed. National integration is far more complicated than a single government programme.
But they should compel policymakers to examine whether the original model remains adequate for today’s Nigeria.
Reform rather than sentiment
The answer may not necessarily be to abolish the NYSC overnight.
There may be a strong case for fundamentally reforming it.
A modern national service programme could place greater emphasis on skills acquisition, technology, entrepreneurship, healthcare, education, disaster response and community development.
The compulsory nationwide posting system could also be reviewed, particularly where security conditions make deployment dangerous.
Nigeria should not continue doing something simply because it has been done for 53 years.
At the same time, we should not discard an institution simply because it has weaknesses. The real question should be: what works, what no longer works, and what should replace it?
Time to rethink government agencies
The NYSC debate should also be part of a broader conversation about the cost and effectiveness of government institutions.
Nigeria has numerous Ministries, Departments and Agencies whose functions sometimes overlap, while some institutions have become largely ineffective.
The Federal Government should therefore revisit recommendations on restructuring and rationalising government agencies, including the Oronsaye reforms.
The objective should not merely be cutting institutions for the sake of cutting them. It should be about creating a leaner, more efficient government that delivers better services to Nigerians.
Who still needs the NYSC?
That is ultimately the question.
The NYSC was born out of the circumstances of post-Civil War Nigeria. Its founders wanted young Nigerians to develop common bonds and a stronger sense of national identity. Those objectives remain desirable.
But the Nigeria of 2026 is not the Nigeria of 1973.
Our security challenges are different. Our population is different. Our economy is different. Our young people face different challenges. Technology has transformed communication and interaction.
The government must therefore have the courage to ask whether the NYSC should continue unchanged, be radically reformed, or eventually replaced with a more effective national service framework.
What we cannot continue to do is expose young Nigerians to avoidable danger simply because a policy was created more than half a century ago.
National unity is important. But so is the safety and dignity of the young Nigerians who are expected to serve the nation.
Bola Bolawole, a former Editor of PUNCH Newspapers, Chairman of its Editorial Board and Deputy Editor-in-Chief, writes columns for Nigerian newspapers.
Source note: The opinion is adapted for Newstrends.ng from Bola Bolawole’s October 7, 2026 article. The NYSC’s official account confirms that the scheme was established by Decree No. 24 of May 22, 1973, principally to promote national unity and common ties among Nigerian youths.
OPINION: Who Still Needs the NYSC? — By Bola Bolawole
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Opinion
Nigeria — My Country of Destiny
Nigeria — My Country of Destiny
A speech delivered by Mrs Bolatito Ajibode, Convener, Independence Day Fiesta, at Landmark Events Centre, to mark Nigeria’s 66th Independence Anniversary
Nigeria is my country of destiny.
It is not a coincidence that I was born here. God had me in mind when He blessed this land.
It is not a coincidence that this prosperous land is populated by people of different cultures; hence, our tongues and tribes differ. We call it PRODIVA — Prosperity in Our Diversity.
The Lord finished the work of creation and should be praised for loading us with the benefits of arable soil, mineral-rich land, solid minerals, oil and gas, and a market of over 200 million people. Many are yearning for these endowments and have come to our land to explore and exploit them.
Our endowments are beckoning on us for exploration. The few who have taken up the challenge, like Dangote, are smiling to the bank by converting our huge deposits of limestone into cement and refining our crude oil into petroleum products. He has taken Nigeria to the global stage, and we are all proud of him as our brother.
We, however, need more Dangotes.
Last year, we had our maiden edition at Muri Okunola Park, where we challenged ourselves to do more by building a side hustle in addition to our 9-to-5 jobs.
We urged ourselves to:
- Start small from where we are and grow.
- Explore the vast resources of this country to create wealth.
I am happy to say that we have positive testimonies from those who have started their side hustles, making extra income and contributing to the total income of Nigeria.
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Having laid a solid foundation last year, our goal this year is to cement it and contribute, individually and collectively, to the per capita income of Nigeria.
The desired growth of Nigeria can only come as we add value to the wealth of the nation in our own little corners.
That is the only variable we can control because the other variable — population — is outside our control.
We are typically excited about our young population and proudly rejoice that Nigeria is projected to become one of the five most populous countries in the world by 2050.
The question we need to ask is: How do we house, feed and clothe this growing population?
Certainly, having a young population is good, but it can also become an easy path to poverty and insecurity if we are not deliberate about growing national wealth and baking a bigger national cake.
Yes, our business environment is tough and unstructured. It raises the entry barrier because many are not ready to weather the storm. Those who are able to stay and thrive in this tough business environment have overcome the challenges, and some of them are here with us today.
A deep appreciation to our keynote speaker, Mrs Chinwe Ezenwa, the Managing Director of Lee Look Bags, who has been in the business of Ankara and Aso-Oke fabric bags for four decades. We look forward to drinking from her fountain of knowledge this morning.
Also in our midst is our brother, Mr Ola Awakan, the Director-General of the Nigerian Tourism Development Authority, who has used literature and poetry to deliver compelling indigenous stories from the heart. He has come with his team all the way from Abuja to honour us.
During the panel session today, we will hear the success stories of our panelists and also interact with them during the networking session.
In line with the theme of the year, we would like us to consider:
- Low-hanging fruits in our business environment;
- Low-technology business ideas;
- Businesses that are authentic and unique to us;
- Commercialising our indigenous values and ideas in food, clothing, arts and drama.
We need to own and dominate this space!
Today, we have in this room great men and women who have taken these indigenous values and ideas to the global stage.
They will share their PRODIVA stories and inspire us.
I believe their insightful stories will also challenge the invited students from Yaba College of Technology, the University of Lagos and Lagos State University.
The idea is to catch them young. 😍
Please note: the Independence Day Fiesta is not about storytelling alone. We are also going to have fun.
We have about four performances, including spoken-word poetry, drama, drumming, music performances and Naija music with good lyrics.
We will also break out for lunch to enjoy various Naija cuisines.
It is my prayer that, at the end of the session, we will all have our takeaways and begin to water the seed of prosperity in our diversity.
Once again, thank you for coming. Please relax and have fun.
Nigeria — My Country of Destiny
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