Opinion
Farooq Kperogi: Conspiracy of price gouging between Dangote and NNPCL
Farooq Kperogi: Conspiracy of price gouging between Dangote and NNPCL
I had said to myself and to people close to me that I would never write again on the untenably rising prices of petrol in Nigeria because when I wrote column after column to presage the unfolding petrol-price-inspired cost-of-living tragedy, scores of people across the Nigerian political divide impassionedly disagreed with me because the presidential candidates to whom they abdicated their brains in 2023 also demonized “petrol subsidies” and promised to remove them.
But the extortionate prices Nigerians are still paying for petrol in spite of the well-justified hopes that the coming on stream of the Dangote Refinery would bring down prices—and the blindingly perplexing and never-ending cascade of blame games, accusations and counter-accusations between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL)—compelled me to revisit this issue.
There appears to be a well-choreographed conspiracy between the Dangote Refinery and the NNPCL to take advantage of Nigerians by keeping petrol prices unjustifiably high. This is somewhat similar to what we call price gouging in the United States.
Price gouging occurs when businesses calculatedly raise the price of goods, services, or commodities to an excessively high level, especially during a crisis or emergency when demand spikes and supply is limited. In the context of fuel, price gouging is said to occur if a company or companies sharply increase fuel prices in response to supply shortages.
Although price gouging typically happens during natural disasters, pandemics, or situations where essential goods become scarce, it can happen anytime. It is, in essence, the exploitation of consumers’ vulnerabilities during critical times. That’s what I suspect is happening in Nigeria now.
NNPCL is the sole buyer and distributor of fuel from the Dangote Refinery. It controls the supply chain and effectively excludes independent marketers from accessing the refinery’s output. That’s not free-market capitalism; that’s state capitalism. That’s not deregulation; it’s regulated deregulation.
But the Dangote Refinery’s price regime is also puzzling. Oil industry expert Mr. Dan Kunle forwarded to me a WhatsApp message that breaks down the landing cost of petrol per liter, which added up to N1107. I haven’t verified the accuracy of the claim, but I assume that it must have some credibility to deserve being forwarded by Mr. Kunle whose knowledge of the industry I have a deep admiration for.
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The message says “based on publicly available data,” which it admitted “are subject to change and may vary depending on market conditions, exchange rates, and other factors,” Dangote Refinery is exempt from incurring costs related to freight (N86.48), jetty depot (N15.35), storage (N12.58), financing (N34.67), foreign exchange (N23.45), NPA charges (N10.58), NIMASA charges (N5.29), and customs duties (N51.17), and therefore should, by my calculation, charge no more than N518.35 per liter.
So it’s a mystery how Dangote and NNPCL agreed on N766. If Dangote Refinery acquired its crude oil in dollars, did it also cover salaries and operational costs in dollars? Crude oil is just one part of the overall production cost.
What’s more concerning, perhaps, is that ₦766 per liter cost seems to be the expected price even after Dangote begins purchasing crude in naira from the NNPC. How can this be justified, especially when the additional costs associated with exporting crude and importing refined products would no longer apply once Dangote receives domestic crude from October 1st?
Additionally, as my friend Professor Moses Ochonu pointed out during our August 31 “Diaspora Dialogues” show titled “Who Wants to Kill Dangote Refinery and Why,” under existing laws, NNPC is supposed to supply its own refineries with 450,000 barrels per day, which was historically sufficient to meet local demand before those refineries became defunct.
That crude was never meant for export. It only started being exported after the refineries stopped functioning. So, as Professor Ochonu pointed out, why not simply allocate that crude to Dangote Refinery, paying only for the refining process plus a modest commission or profit, and then sell the refined products to Nigerians at more affordable rates?
This approach would involve some level of subsidy, but that’s how the system was intended to function when state-owned refineries were operational. In any case, in spite of the sustained propaganda against subsidies, every serious country on earth dispenses subsidies, including energy subsidies, to its citizens. Nigerians are entitled to a subsidy on a quarter of the country’s crude output, and subsidizing petrol makes sense because of its broad impact on the economy.
Moreover, this method would be far less costly than the inflated and fraudulent subsidies that have been paid for imported fuel over the years.
I am, of course, aware that Nigerians have allowed themselves to be willingly brainwashed into assuming that there is no nexus between “subsidy removal” and petrol price hike. I hope the truth is becoming apparent now.
For example, in my April 29, 2023, column titled “Six Agenda Items for Tinubu’s Success,” I wrote, among other things: “Don’t increase petrol prices by other names. I know that there is now an artfully manufactured consent, particularly among the gilded classes in Nigeria, about the undesirability of ‘fuel subsidy.’
“I don’t care what it’s called, but any policy (call it deregulation, subsidy removal, appropriate pricing, etc.) that results in an arbitrary and unbearable hike in the price of petrol without a corresponding increase in the salaries of workers and an improvement in the living conditions of everyday people will sink Tinubu.
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“No responsible government shies away from subsidizing the production and consumption of essential commodities for its people. I have lived in the United States, the belly of the capitalist beast, for nearly two decades, and I can tell you that governments at both federal and state levels heavily subsidize petrol consumption—in addition to agriculture.”
In response, a Facebook friend who was inebriated with anti-subsidy propaganda retorted in the comment section: “I beg to disagree on your advice of his administration not removing fuel subsidy which has become [a] cesspool of corruption…. I prefer he use resources saved from its removal on foodstuffs, health and educational facilities as well as increase salaries of workers which PMB has commenced to FG workers with the 40% peculiar allowance to its staff with effect from last January and which arrears was paid with April Salary. Other points raised are apt.”
“At this rate,” I replied sarcastically, “I pray petrol price gets to 1,000 naira per liter so that everyone will get a taste of what I’ve been talking about.”
“Speculation, speculation and speculation!” he shot back. “Govt should be encouraged to put the refineries in good shape and encourage more private investors to build more just as Dangote and Ishiaku Rabiu [sic] are doing. All refineries should be supplied crude oil in naira and not buying in international oil prices in American dollars. Market forces would later force the prices down if monopoly is not allowed to fester just as happened when telecommunication was privatised and mtn simcard was 30k, others like Mtel, Glo, etc forced the price down and now costs next to nothing.”
Two weeks ago, I reminded him of our April 29, 2023, conversation and asked if he still stood by his arguments and what he thought about the N1,000 per liter prediction I made, which he had dismissed as “speculation.” I am still awaiting his response as I write this.
Well, Nigerians were flushed with enthusiasm at the prospect of the operation of the Dangote Refinery. They expected it to help reduce fuel prices, but the monopolistic control of NNPCL and the caginess and opacity of Dangote Refinery itself have spawned a jarring disconnect between expectations and reality.
As I have repeatedly pointed out, Nigeria, as an oil-producing country, should not withhold the reasonable expectation that its citizens benefit from lower fuel prices. To suggest otherwise is akin to giving someone a handful of cream while allowing their skin to remain parched — an act of neglect that borders on cruelty. Nigerians could more easily reconcile with elevated petrol prices if their country were not blessed with abundant oil resources.
Denying citizens the fruits of their nation’s wealth is no different from a wealthy parent who starves their own children while justifying the neglect by pointing to the deprivation of their less fortunate neighbors. Such a parent is not only irresponsible but unworthy of the trust and care of their children.
Farooq Kperogi: Conspiracy of price gouging between Dangote and NNPCL
Farooq Kperogi is a renowned columnist and United States-based Professor of Journalism.
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Opinion
2027: Competence, Not Zoning, Should Decide Nigeria’s Next President — Imasuagbon
Nigerians should look beyond ethnicity, region and the longstanding debate over rotational presidency when choosing the country’s next leader, according to a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Kenneth Imasuagbon.
The former Edo State governorship aspirant said the priority ahead of the 2027 election should be finding a president with the ability to confront Nigeria’s economic, security and infrastructure challenges.
Speaking to journalists in Benin, Imasuagbon argued that presidential rotation is not a requirement of the Nigerian Constitution and should therefore not outweigh the question of competence.
He said voters should be more concerned about replacing poor schools with better ones, improving healthcare and addressing hardship than debating where the next president comes from.
Imasuagbon specifically appealed to voters in the South to support former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is contesting the 2027 presidency on the ADC platform.
According to him, Atiku has demonstrated the experience and determination needed to improve the country, describing the former vice president as someone capable of promoting national unity and fairness.
He also accused the Bola Tinubu administration of worsening economic pressure through policies including the removal of fuel subsidy, while expressing concern about the condition of roads, electricity and other infrastructure.
Imasuagbon argued that the next administration must focus on practical improvements in areas such as power, transportation, employment, security and public services.
The ADC chieftain also dismissed the idea that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would automatically benefit from its incumbency advantage in 2027.
He maintained that the electorate ultimately determines the outcome of an election, arguing that voters could change the political direction of the country if they were determined to do so.
Imasuagbon further criticised what he described as regional and ethnic considerations in the distribution of political appointments and opportunities, insisting that the next president should give Nigerians across different parts of the country a sense of belonging.
His comments come as political parties and their candidates intensify preparations for the 2027 presidential election.
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Opinion
Lesson from Dotun Oladipo’s Brave Daughters, by Bamidele Johnson
Lesson from Dotun Oladipo’s Brave Daughters, by Bamidele Johnson
I hope to grow old. I want to see my kids become real adults, find their own feet, make mistakes, recover from them, and perhaps one day complain that their own children are giving them grey hairs. I want that plainly stated before anything else, as everything that follows might read as a man agreeing to an early exit rather than a man simply being honest about the odds.
I want the decades. I want to become the grandfather who repeats the same stories until nobody bothers correcting him anymore. But wanting a thing and being granted are different things. The last year has made that difference harder to ignore than I would like. I have lost many friends recently to keep thinking that optimism is my natural resting state. Some of these men had better blood pressure than mine, better habits, better everything that is supposed to count. It did not save them.
There is no formula I know that reliably separates the men who make it to 70 from those who do not. Anyone who says he knows one is selling something. So, I do not assume that old age is an already booked destination. Even if I once did, which I doubt, the last three years have cured me of such an illusion. As such, I treat it as a hope rather than an expectation, and I have found that a more honest way to live.
It is exactly why I want something placed on record now, while I am still able to place things on record, rather than leave it for people to guess what my wishes were in the fog of a funeral week. If I do not make old bones, my children are not to be asked to read tributes at my funeral. Not one line, however short, however lovingly written.
This, for me, was settled today rather than re-opened. At Dotun Oladipo’s funeral service, his three daughters took turns to read their tributes to their dad, and I found myself watching them with awe. There was a kind of strength in them that I do not possess. It is the strength needed to stand in front of a hall brimming with grieving adults and speak about a man they have just lost. Forever. Strength, however, is not the same as ease. I could see plainly what that strength was costing them as they read. Their voices caught. Their composure held and then did not hold and then held again through sheer will.
In front of them, in the pews, men and women considerably older than them came undone in ways the girls themselves were somehow managing to resist. I went mightily close. Some of the sobbing was quiet, the type people try to fold into a handkerchief. Some of it was not quiet at all, the kind that announces itself whether or not you want it.
Those young women honoured their father with a grace that is beyond me. What they did was astonishing. So, what I am attempting is an observation of a custom I have now watched wound people. This was not the first time I had watched this particular ritual extract more than it should from people already running on fumes. I saw an earlier and harder version of it at a friend’s wake back in 2015.
The first son was called forward to read his father’s tribute, and he could not do it. He tried, but the words would not come, and he stood there in front of a crowd of mourners, with his grief simply refusing to organise itself into sentences. The officiating minister, rather than releasing him from the task, urged him to continue. I sat fizzing with sorrow and ire. He could not go on and, eventually, the minister accepted, but not before insisting a while longer than it should have reasonably taken. His younger brother was called up next, presumably on the theory that if one grieving son could not manage it, maybe another one could. He flunked it in the same way. Grief does not distribute itself more conveniently among siblings just because a programme has been printed and needs to be followed.
I have turned that memory over many times since, trying to work out why this part of the rites is treated as mandatory in the first place. I have not found a satisfying answer. Maybe it comes from a belief that a child’s words carry more weight than anyone else’s, which may even be true, but weight is exactly the problem when those carrying it are struggling to hold themselves together with nothing but adrenaline and the fear of dissolving in public.
Maybe it is simply inertia, the reason we still do a hundred things at funerals that nobody can explain the original purpose of. Either way, I have stopped looking for the justification. I no longer think one exists that is good enough to weigh against what I watched happen to that boy in 2015.
So, let this stand as my instruction rather than my preference, the kind of thing I would rather state plainly now than leave for my children to infer later from how uncertain I sound when the subject comes up in passing. If I do not get the old age I am hoping for, my children will not be asked to read a single word over my body. Someone else can speak for me. A friend, a stranger with a steadier voice and a smaller stake in the loss, anyone whose grief will not be quite so total that standing upright becomes almost impossible.
My children, of course, will sit in front and fall apart if that is what the day requires of them, but without the microphone. That, at least, is one small mercy I intend to arrange for them while I am still here to arrange it.
Dotun deserved every bit of the send-off his daughters gave him today, and I suspect he would have been the first to tell them to sit down and let someone else carry the weight for a while. He did not get a say in that, as none of us ever do once we are the ones being spoken of rather than the ones speaking. Rest well, Dotun. You raised three young women whose strength I will not soon forget. That alone says everything worth saying about the man you were.

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Opinion
‘Tinubu Will Win Again in 2027’ — Charismatic Bishops’ Secretary
‘Tinubu Will Win Again in 2027’ — Charismatic Bishops’ Secretary
A senior Nigerian cleric, Archbishop Chivir Chianson, has declared that President Bola Tinubu will retain the presidency after the 2027 general election, attributing the prediction to a message he said came from God.
Chianson, who serves as Secretary General of the Charismatic Bishops’ Conference of Nigeria, made the statement while appearing on Arise Television on Saturday.
Rather than basing his prediction on political calculations, the archbishop said his confidence came from what he described as the prophetic role of bishops.
He maintained that the conference had previously spoken about Tinubu’s political future based on what he said was divine revelation and that the President would return for another term.
Chianson also predicted that Tinubu’s performance would improve if he wins the 2027 election.
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Addressing the political opposition, the cleric said the bishops could not be blamed if rival parties failed to unite or organise themselves effectively ahead of the election.
He also sought to clarify the position of the bishops when dealing with government, saying their role in speaking truth to power did not mean they should approach political leaders with hostility or disrespect.
According to him, the Constitution, alongside their religious convictions, should guide how they engage the President and the country.
Chianson said he was sufficiently confident in his prediction to promise that he would return to the Arise TV studio after the 2027 election, when he expects the result to demonstrate that the bishops’ prophecy was correct.
His comments add a religious dimension to the increasingly active political conversation surrounding the 2027 presidential race.
‘Tinubu Will Win Again in 2027’ — Charismatic Bishops’ Secretary
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