CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices - Newstrends
Connect with us

Business

CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices

Published

on

Fuel pump price

CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of petrol will average about ₦950 per litre in 2026, according to its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.

The projection is based on a set of baseline assumptions, including a moderation in global crude oil prices, relative stability in the foreign exchange market, and improved domestic oil production and refining capacity.

According to the apex bank, its outlook assumes an average crude oil price of $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, in line with forecasts by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) that rising inventories and global supply glut would weigh on prices.

The CBN also projected an average Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rate of ₦1,451.63 per dollar in Q4 2025 and ₦1,400/$ in 2026, supported by improved FX efficiency, increased capital inflows, a current account surplus and broader economic activity.

Domestic crude oil production is expected to average about 1.5 million barrels per day, excluding condensates, throughout the forecast period. Within this framework, the bank said the price of premium motor spirit (PMS) is expected to “hover around ₦950 per litre in 2026,” slightly above current retail levels.

READ ALSO:

“The baseline projections are predicated on crude oil prices, exchange rate stability, improved FX market efficiency, higher capital inflows, a current account surplus and stronger investor sentiment,” the CBN stated, adding that government spending would follow the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in line with an expansionary fiscal stance.

The outlook comes amid recent fluctuations in fuel prices following significant price cuts by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which reduced its gantry price from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre in December. The refinery’s retail partner, MRS Oil, subsequently sold petrol at ₦739 per litre, forcing other marketers to lower prices to remain competitive.

Despite the reductions, industry players note that the price cuts have come at a significant cost to refiners and importers. Earlier this week, the Dangote refinery warned that petrol prices could rise to as much as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria relies solely on fuel imports, describing domestic refining as a stabilising force in the downstream market.

The CBN acknowledged this role, noting that increased private sector investment in refining, improved security around oil assets and stable energy prices are expected to support stronger economic growth in 2026.

The bank also projected that headline inflation would decline to 12.94 per cent in 2026, from an estimated 21.26 per cent in 2025, driven by easing food prices and moderation in PMS prices as competition among midstream operators intensifies.

Globally, the CBN forecast a 5.52 per cent decline in commodity prices in 2026, with global energy prices expected to fall by 6.99 per cent, as Brent crude averages around $61 per barrel. Prices of metals and agricultural commodities are also projected to ease on weaker demand and improved supply conditions.

CBN Forecasts ₦950 Petrol Price in 2026 Amid FX Stability, Lower Oil Prices

Punch

Loading

Auto

Transport Expert Segun Musa to Chair 12th Nigeria Transport Lecture

Published

on

Transport Expert Segun Musa to Chair 12th Nigeria Transport Lecture

 

Renowned transport and logistics expert, Dr. Segun Musa, has been named chairman of the 12th edition of the Nigeria Transport Lecture scheduled to hold in Lagos on June 18, 2026.

Organised by Transport Day newspaper, this year’s lecture will focus on the theme, “Multi-modal Transportation Safety in Nigeria: Prospects, Challenges and Contribution to National Growth.”

Musa, Chairman and Managing Director of Widescope Logistics International, is widely respected for his extensive experience in transportation, logistics and supply chain management spanning several decades.

The event will also feature a keynote presentation by the Registrar of the Council for the Regulation of Freight Forwarding in Nigeria (CRFFN), Mr. Kingsley Onyekachi Igwe.

Scheduled to take place at the Radisson Blu Hotel, Ikeja, the lecture is expected to attract key stakeholders from both the public and private sectors to deliberate on critical safety issues, policy reforms and strategies for strengthening Nigeria’s multi-modal transportation network.

Other notable speakers include the National President of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transportation (CILT), Dr. Boboye Oyeyemi, and the Dean of the School of Transportation and Logistics, Lagos State University (LASU), Prof. Ogochukwu Ugboma.

Over the years, the Nigeria Transport Lecture has evolved into a leading industry platform, bringing together policymakers, regulators, academics and business leaders to discuss solutions to challenges confronting the transport and logistics sector.

Previous editions have featured distinguished personalities such as former Director-General of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Dr. Dakuku Peterside; former Federal Permanent Secretary, Dr. Anthonia Ekpa; and Managing Director of the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC), Dr. Kayode Opeifa, among others.

Ahead of the gathering, the Editor of Transport Day Media, Mr. Frank Kintum, said the annual lecture has become an important platform for industry stakeholders to examine emerging issues and develop practical solutions for the transport sector.

He noted that this year’s focus on multi-modal transportation safety was informed by the increasing integration of road, rail, maritime and air transport systems, stressing that safety must remain at the centre of efforts to modernise the sector.

“As governments continue to invest in transport infrastructure and interconnectivity, safety cannot be treated as an afterthought. The success and sustainability of these investments depend largely on how effectively safety concerns are addressed across all modes of transport,” Kintum stated.

He further explained that the lecture forms part of Transport Day Media’s broader mission to encourage policy dialogue, knowledge sharing and industry collaboration aimed at building a safer, more efficient and globally competitive transport and logistics ecosystem in Nigeria and the wider African region.

Loading

Continue Reading

Business

NERC Orders Compensation for Band A Customers Over Power Supply Shortfalls

Published

on

Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC)

NERC Orders Compensation for Band A Customers Over Power Supply Shortfalls

 

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has approved a special compensation package for eligible Band A electricity customers affected by power supply shortfalls between February and March 2026.

The regulator announced the measure in a public notice issued on Thursday, citing widespread generation constraints that prevented electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) from meeting the minimum service levels promised to some Band A customers during the period.

According to NERC, the disruptions were largely triggered by inadequate gas supply as well as vandalism of critical gas and transmission infrastructure, factors it said were beyond the control of the DisCos.

Under the directive, Band A feeders that maintained an average daily supply of between 18 and 20 hours will continue to receive compensation under the existing framework contained in Addendum No. NERC/2024/003, covering both Maximum Demand (MD) and Non-Maximum Demand (Non-MD) customers.

For feeders that recorded less than 18 hours of daily electricity supply, NERC ruled that they would not be downgraded during the affected period.

Instead, eligible Non-MD customers will receive compensation equivalent to 20 per cent of the approved February 2026 energy cap for their feeders, while MD customers will receive credits equal to 20 per cent of the average energy billed per MD customer in February 2026.

The commission said prepaid customers would receive the compensation through energy token credits, while postpaid customers would benefit through adjustments to their electricity bills.

NERC directed all DisCos to complete compensation for February 2026 by May 31, 2026, and for March 2026 no later than June 30, 2026.

The regulator also barred DisCos from using the compensation to offset outstanding customer debts and instructed them to clearly communicate the value and period of the credits granted to beneficiaries.

Reaffirming its commitment to consumer protection, NERC said it would continue to monitor implementation of the directive and verify compliance across the industry to ensure that all eligible customers receive the compensation due to them.

The commission added that the intervention is aimed at safeguarding consumer interests while supporting the stability and long-term sustainability of the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry.

Loading

Continue Reading

Business

Petrol Prices Fall Nationwide as Dangote Refinery Cuts Ex-Depot Rate

Published

on

Petrol Prices Fall Nationwide as Dangote Refinery Cuts Ex-Depot Rate

Petrol Prices Fall Nationwide as Dangote Refinery Cuts Ex-Depot Rate

Nigeria’s petrol prices have begun to decline across several parts of the country after Dangote Refinery announced a fresh reduction in its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), raising hopes of further relief for motorists and businesses grappling with high fuel costs.

The 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery reduced its ex-depot petrol price from N1,275 per litre to N1,250 per litre, while also lowering the ex-depot price of diesel from N1,800 per litre to N1,700 per litre. The company attributed the latest adjustment to a decline in global crude oil prices and its commitment to making refined petroleum products more affordable for Nigerians.

The development has already triggered price reductions at several filling stations, particularly in Lagos and Ogun states, where some marketers are now selling petrol below N1,300 per litre.

Checks along the Mowe-Ibafo axis of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway showed that marketers moved swiftly to adjust pump prices following the refinery’s announcement. MRS stations reduced petrol prices to N1,286 per litre, while NIPCO and Heyden sold at N1,290 per litre. SGR outlets adjusted their pump price to N1,297 per litre.

The downward trend was also noticeable in the diesel market, where several stations reduced prices to around N1,800 per litre from previous levels of about N1,900 per litre.

However, not all retailers have fully reflected the latest reduction. Some outlets operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) were still selling petrol above the N1,300 mark. In Ibafo, NNPC stations dispensed fuel at N1,305 per litre, while Mobil and Asharami stations sold at N1,310 and N1,320 per litre respectively.

READ ALSO:

Industry observers believe the latest move by Dangote Refinery could lead to additional price adjustments nationwide as marketers exhaust existing inventories and take delivery of products purchased at the new rate.

The reduction comes after months of sustained pressure on consumers following a sharp rise in fuel prices. Petrol prices had surged from around N830 per litre to over N1,300 per litre in many parts of the country as global crude oil prices climbed above $115 per barrel amid tensions involving the United States and Iran.

Energy analysts say increasing local refining capacity is beginning to reshape Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market. Since commencing large-scale operations, Dangote Refinery has emerged as the country’s dominant fuel supplier, significantly reducing dependence on imported petroleum products and introducing stronger competition among marketers.

The latest price cut is expected to provide some relief to households and businesses struggling with rising transportation, logistics and production costs. Many Nigerians are also hoping that continued declines in global crude prices and improved local supply will force further reductions in pump prices in the coming weeks.

Stakeholders, however, caution that future petrol price movements will continue to depend on global oil market trends, foreign exchange stability, transportation costs and overall supply conditions within the domestic market.

For now, motorists are beginning to enjoy modest savings at the pump, with the prospect of more competitive pricing as marketers respond to changing market realities.

Petrol Prices Fall Nationwide as Dangote Refinery Cuts Ex-Depot Rate

Loading

Continue Reading

Trending