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CBN’s $1bn monthly diaspora inflow target faces immigration threat

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CBN Revokes Licences of 46 Microfinance Banks (FULL LIST)
CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso

CBN’s $1bn monthly diaspora inflow target faces immigration threat

With many countries recalibrating their immigration and international fund remittance frameworks to cement their protectionist posturing, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) push to secure $1 billion in monthly diaspora remittances now faces fresh headwinds.

Offshore inflows, seen as a cornerstone of the apex bank’s foreign exchange strategy, are now in the midst of policy shifts especially as countries like the United States and the United Kingdom move to tighten immigration controls and remittance regulations.

Diaspora remittances have long served as a critical cushion for Nigeria’s economy.

In 2023 alone, remittances topped $21 billion, according to World Bank data, making Nigeria the largest recipient in Sub-Saharan Africa.

These inflows often exceed foreign direct investment and official development assistance combined and serve as vital source of income for millions of households, especially in rural areas.

Recognising this potential, the CBN prioritised boosting diaspora remittance inflows through a raft of financial and regulatory reforms.

This year, the apex bank in collaboration with the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) introduced the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN) framework to enable Nigerians abroad remotely open BVN-linked naira and domiciliary accounts.

The move, designed to capture more inflows through official channels, was widely praised by stakeholders and fintech operators alike.

Governor, CBN, Olayemi Cardoso, while fielding questions from newsmen at the last Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC), said the platform will be a game-changer in expanding access to financial services for Nigerians in the diaspora.

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Cardoso noted that the cost of repatriating funds from overseas to Nigeria and many other emerging markets which stands around 7 per cent is clearly unacceptable.

“One key solution, which we have now begun to pursue, is rooted in the volume business. As we drive up transaction volumes, the cost of remittances will inevitably decline and I must say, the recent bold steps taken in partnership with the Nigerian Regulatory Bank Verification Network (NRBVN) is truly game-changing. This is what our diaspora community has been waiting for, that is, the ability to transact from abroad seamlessly. Now, the opportunity to invest in the country of their birth is wide open. It could not have come at a better time”.

According to him, the apex bank sees itself as facilitators and catalysts clearing the path and letting the private sector take the lead. He noted that the key target of $1 billion a month in diaspora inflows might sound ambitious, but it is not unattainable.

The CBN’s strategy appeared to gain traction. By early 2025, remittances through formal channels had climbed to over $600 million monthly, with a target of hitting $1 billion by the third quarter (Q3) of the year.

“In fact, we have already made remarkable progress moving from just over $200 million to peaking at over $600 million in a single month. That is the Nigerian spirit in action and at work. There is nothing that would stop us from exceeding that. This shows what is possible when we get creative, stay committed, and work together. Other countries like Pakistan, India, and others have done this, so why can’t we? So, this is a reflection and effort that proves what can be achieved when the government steps back and allows the private sector to lead”, the CBN governor remarked.

However, that momentum is now at risk as the U.S President, Donald Trump, at the weekend signed the proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill”. The bill includes a provision to levy a 3.5 per cent surcharge on all outbound remittances by foreign nationals. The funds raised would reportedly go toward enhancing border security and immigration enforcement.

For Nigerian families that rely on modest monthly transfers from relatives abroad often between $100 and $500, a new fee structure could sharply reduce the value of those transfers or deter formal transactions altogether. Already, fintech operators say they are fielding concerns from customers about the potential costs and implications of the policy.

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Analysts at CardinalStone Partners in a recent brief seen by Daily Sun, warned that such a tax could push many Nigerians abroad to revert to informal and unregulated remittance channels, undermining efforts by the CBN to formalise inflows and improve transparency in the foreign exchange market.

Similarly, the U.S Department of State noted that effective July 8, 2025, most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to Nigerians will now be valid for only three months and limited to a single entry.

Across Europe and Asia, governments are implementing tighter immigration controls, increased financial scrutiny, and stricter documentation requirements for money transfers. Specifically, in the UK, another major remittance source country for Nigeria, new rules around immigration process for Nigerians applying for study and work visas, proof of income and recipient verification have increased processing times and compliance burdens for remittance service providers.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also imposed tougher entry conditions for Nigerian travelers, banning transit visa applications entirely. According to the UAE, Nigerians aged 18-45 will no longer be eligible for tourist visas unless accompanied while those aged 45 and above must provide a 6-month personal bank statement showing at least $10,000 monthly balance before they are granted visas.

These policy shifts are driven by a combination of factors: anti-money laundering efforts, populist politics, national security concerns, and a push to tax cross-border capital flows. But for developing economies like Nigeria, they represent a new layer of risk in already fragile FX ecosystems.

Economic implications

If diaspora remittances fall significantly, the consequences for Nigeria could be severe. First, it would tighten pressure on the naira, which has already experienced persistent volatility despite CBN interventions and rising oil prices.

The naira depreciated by 0.2 per cent to N1,531/$1 at the official market amid emerging demand pressures which outweighed supply from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) looking to participate in the Open Market Operations (OMO) Primary Market Auction (PMA) despite $50 million intervention from the CBN.

Secondly, household consumption could suffer as remittances are often used to pay for food, school fees, medical bills, and housing. A drop in these flows could worsen poverty, reduce domestic demand, and strain public social services. Finally, Nigeria’s fiscal position could weaken further with the government already grappling with a high debt burden and limited revenue.

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Hence, reduced FX inflows could hinder its ability to service external debts or finance imports, especially for critical sectors like power and healthcare.

Experts’ views

This has led to several calls for Nigeria to engage in high-level diplomacy to advocate for policies that will not disproportionately hurt its diaspora.

They also called for a diversified strategy that goes beyond remittances. One such option is the issuance of diaspora bonds, which would allow Nigerians abroad to invest in infrastructure and development projects back home in exchange for returns in dollars or naira.

Governor Cardoso has hinted at such a possibility, noting in a recent interview that the CBN and Ministry of Finance are exploring instruments to channel diaspora savings into productive uses.

Founder, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Johnson Chukwu, speaking during a recent forum, noted that this could only work if there is a high level of transparency, security and impact.

“There is no doubt that there is appetite within the diaspora community for investment products but this can only work if there is a high-level of transparency, security, and impact”. Do we need to move beyond consumption driven inflows? The answer is yes. We need to move beyond consumption-driven remittances to investment-driven diaspora engagement”, Chukwu said.

Executive Director at Zenith Bank, Dr Temitope Fasoranti, said, “In the current environment, every dollar counts. Losing even $200–300 million a month in diaspora remittances would be a significant shock to Nigeria’s external balance. There have been calls to diversify our export base which is good but the government needs to also look at creating diaspora funds that will target housing, agriculture, or even renewable energy which can channel long term capital back home”

The CBN’s $1 billion monthly remittance target is not just a financial benchmark, it is a critical lifeline for the Nigerian economy at a time of macroeconomic fragility. But as global migration policies harden and remittance corridors become more expensive and complex, Nigeria faces a new set of external risks that require both nimble diplomacy and domestic resilience.

Whether the country can sustain and grow its diaspora inflows will depend on how effectively it can navigate these emerging global headwinds. For now, the road to $1 billion a month looks steeper than ever.

CBN’s $1bn monthly diaspora inflow target faces immigration threat

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NCAA Moves Against Airlines Over Rising Flight Delays

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September 17, 2026

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NCAA Moves Against Airlines Over Rising Flight Delays

Thousands of Nigerian air passengers faced delays in August as domestic airlines struggled to keep to their scheduled flight times.

Now, the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) says it is taking regulatory steps that could lead to sanctions against airlines responsible for persistent delays.

The regulator’s August data showed that 4,765 of 7,961 scheduled domestic flights were delayed. In other words, nearly 60 per cent of the flights did not leave as scheduled.

Air Peace and United Nigeria Airlines recorded some of the highest delay rates, with 71 per cent and 76 per cent of their flights respectively affected.

NCAA Warns Airlines

NCAA Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection, Michael Achimugu, said that the regulator had already engaged some of the airlines involved.

According to him, the NCAA met with Air Peace, United Nigeria Airlines and Max Air and issued stern warnings over their operations.

The authority is now weighing further regulatory measures as the problem continues to affect passengers.

Achimugu also urged travellers to consider other airlines when repeated delays make a particular carrier unreliable.

“When one airline is continuously misbehaving, buy tickets on another airline and make your flight” he said.

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Passenger Rights Put Enforcement Under Spotlight

However, aviation consultant Capt. John Ojikutu believes the recurring problem exposes a wider weakness in the sector.

Ojikutu said Nigeria has regulations intended to protect air travellers, but questioned how consistently those rules are enforced.

“The regulation is there to protect the customer. What is the enforcement?” he said.

He noted that passengers can report violations to the appropriate authorities. But, in his view, regulators must follow up on those complaints with meaningful action.

The aviation expert also recalled experiencing severe delays himself.

He said he once travelled to Abuja and passengers had to board an aircraft three times before another plane was brought in to complete the journey.

The disruption, he said, left him returning to Lagos considerably later than expected.

Are Airlines Planning Their Routes Properly?

Ojikutu also linked the industry’s problems to the way some airlines plan their operations.

He questioned the number of carriers competing on the Lagos-Abuja route, particularly when several airlines operate multiple flights each day.

His argument is that airlines should first establish the level of passenger demand before selecting routes, aircraft sizes and flight frequencies.

According to him, deploying aircraft capable of carrying more than 100 passengers without sufficient demand can put additional financial pressure on an airline.

He therefore advised carriers to consider routes with enough passengers but less competition.

Smaller Aircraft Could Serve Regional Routes

Ojikutu said the industry could also learn from the operational model used by the former Nigerian Airways.

He recalled that the airline used larger aircraft on major routes while smaller planes connected regional destinations to major airports.

He suggested that modern carriers could adopt a similar approach by connecting cities such as Sokoto, Kaduna, Jos and Minna to larger aviation hubs.

Rather than having every airline compete directly on major routes, he said carriers could develop regional networks that feed passengers into bigger airports.

He also called for more airlines to establish bases outside Lagos.

According to him, encouraging operations in other parts of the country could reduce the heavy concentration of airlines in Lagos and create stronger regional connections.

Concern Over Airline Survival

Ojikutu further questioned the short lifespan of many Nigerian airlines.

He attributed part of the problem to weak business planning and argued that airlines should present credible, sustainable plans before receiving regulatory approval to operate.

The latest development therefore puts both airlines and the aviation regulator under scrutiny, as passengers continue to deal with delays despite existing rules designed to protect them.

NCAA Moves Against Airlines Over Rising Flight Delays

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Fuel Prices Climb to ₦1,500 per Litre Across Nigeria, Sparking Calls for Urgent Action

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September 17, 2026

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Fuel Prices Climb to ₦1,500 per Litre Across Nigeria, Sparking Calls for Urgent Action

Workers’ unions and fuel sellers appeal to the government to protect families from soaring transportation and food costs.

Fuel stations across Nigeria have raised the price of petrol to as high as ₦1,500 per litre, creating fresh financial strain for working people, small business operators, and families. Across cities such as Kano, Maiduguri, Damaturu, and Sokoto, drivers and commercial riders now pay higher rates at the pump, while stations in central and southern communities also report steady increases.

Because transportation costs directly influence the price of everyday essentials, bus drivers and tricycle operators have raised passenger fares to cover their fuel bills. As a result, parents and commuters face steeper daily travel expenses and rising grocery bills.

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To address this pressure, the Nigeria Labour Congress urged federal authorities to step in quickly with practical relief measures. These proposals include providing cost-of-living allowances to workers, ensuring local refineries can purchase crude oil directly in local currency, and using surplus oil earnings to keep pump prices affordable.

At the same time, fuel sellers warned that pump prices could rise even further if international oil markets remain volatile. Retail associations noted that recent wholesale adjustments from local refineries have increased costs for station owners, who must pay more to restock their tanks.

To keep fuel affordable for the general public, union leaders and station operators are encouraging the government to reduce shipping and regulatory fees, helping ensure that reliable energy remains accessible to every community across the country.

Fuel Prices Climb to ₦1,500 per Litre Across Nigeria, Sparking Calls for Urgent Action

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Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production

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September 16, 2026

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Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production

Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production

Nigeria’s emergence as a major local refining hub has reduced the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products, but it has not insulated consumers from rising petrol prices, with the cost of crude oil, international market conditions, refinery economics and downstream distribution continuing to influence pump prices.

The development has renewed debate over why Nigerians are still paying relatively high prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) despite the operation of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest refinery.

The refinery recently increased its petrol gantry price to N1,350 per litre, from N1,265, amid higher crude oil prices and rising replacement costs in the downstream market. The increase has subsequently put pressure on marketers and filling stations to adjust their pump prices.

Dangote Group President Aliko Dangote has explained that domestic refining does not automatically mean petrol will be priced independently of the international oil market because crude remains the principal raw material for refining.

The refinery therefore remains exposed to the cost of crude oil, whether the feedstock is sourced locally or imported.

This is particularly important because Nigerian crude is commercially linked to international benchmarks. As a result, producing petrol domestically removes some import-related costs but does not eliminate the underlying value of the crude used to manufacture the product.

Recent developments also show that the availability and cost of Nigerian crude oil remain central to the economics of the Dangote refinery.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were supplied to local refineries between April and June 2026, representing 97.4 per cent performance under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO).

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At the Dangote refinery, producers offered 68.1 million barrels against the facility’s requirement of 63 million barrels during the second quarter. The refinery eventually accepted 52.6 million barrels, equivalent to about 78 per cent of the volumes offered to it.

The figures indicate that the issue is not simply whether crude is available in Nigeria, but also the commercial terms, grades, logistics and timing involved in supplying it to the refinery.

Dangote has previously raised concerns about the cost and competitiveness of some domestic crude supplies. A portion of the refinery’s crude intake has at times been imported, while the company has continued seeking ways to secure sufficient Nigerian crude at competitive prices.

The refinery’s access to domestic crude has, however, improved considerably.

Dangote secured at least 16 million barrels of Nigerian crude for October delivery, equivalent to about 520,000 barrels per day and representing most of the refinery’s 700,000-barrel-per-day capacity.

The October supply includes allocations from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) as well as additional crude purchased through tenders.

The refinery received an average of about 565,000 barrels per day of Nigerian crude in August, nearly twice its average intake in 2025.

The increased domestic supply could reduce the refinery’s exposure to imported crude, but it does not necessarily mean petrol prices will fall immediately.

The reason is that the cost of crude is only one component of the final price of petrol.

Other factors include refining costs, financing, storage, transportation, depot charges, distribution and retail margins. Exchange-rate movements can also affect costs linked to dollar-denominated purchases and other imported inputs.

The removal of the petrol subsidy has further changed Nigeria’s fuel-pricing structure. Rather than having the government absorb a large portion of the difference between market costs and the regulated pump price, consumers are now more directly exposed to changes in market conditions.

Consequently, movements in global crude prices can affect locally refined petrol just as they affect imported products.

The recent rise in the Dangote refinery’s petrol price demonstrates this relationship. The refinery’s latest adjustment reflected rising crude prices and increased replacement costs faced by refiners, importers and depot operators.

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The relationship between global prices and domestic petrol prices has also worked in the opposite direction when crude prices declined.

Earlier in the year, the Dangote refinery reduced its petrol price as international crude prices eased, illustrating how changes in the global market can be transmitted to locally refined products.

The refinery is also increasingly becoming a participant in the international refined-products market rather than solely a supplier to Nigeria.

The facility generated $1.82 billion in net profit during the first half of 2026, on revenue of more than $13 billion, reversing a $476 million loss recorded in 2025.

The refinery has expanded exports of jet fuel, diesel and gasoil, with the company becoming a significant supplier to international markets during disruptions to global fuel supplies.

The development demonstrates the commercial reality of operating a large refinery: refined products can be sold into domestic or international markets depending on market conditions, prices and demand.

For Nigeria, the refinery nevertheless represents a major structural change in the downstream petroleum sector.

The country previously relied heavily on imported refined petrol despite being a major crude oil producer. Increased domestic refining means more crude can be converted into petroleum products within Nigeria, reducing dependence on imported finished products and potentially improving energy security.

The refinery is also expected to expand its capacity further, with plans to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day over the next three years.

The larger capacity could increase domestic availability of refined products and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a regional supplier.

However, greater refining capacity by itself does not guarantee permanently cheaper petrol.

For consumers, the crucial issue is how efficiently the entire petroleum value chain operates—from crude production and supply to refining, transportation, storage and retail distribution.

The Domestic Crude Supply Obligation is intended to improve access to Nigerian crude for local refineries. Increased domestic crude production and stronger commercial arrangements between producers and refiners could further improve the reliability of supply.

There are also efforts to address logistics and supply challenges, including proposals for crude-swap arrangements designed to match domestic refiners with local producers and potentially reduce delivery times and logistical complications.

If such measures improve the reliability and competitiveness of domestic crude supply, they could strengthen the economics of local refining.

For now, however, Nigerians remain exposed to a combination of global crude oil prices, domestic crude supply costs, exchange-rate pressures and downstream distribution expenses.

This means that the biggest benefit of the Dangote refinery may not necessarily be an immediate collapse in petrol prices, but a reduction in Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined fuel, greater domestic refining capacity and the potential to retain more value from the petroleum chain within the country.

The immediate challenge remains translating those structural gains into greater petrol price stability and affordability for households, businesses and transport operators.

As Dangote increases its intake of Nigerian crude and moves towards higher utilisation, the cost and reliability of its feedstock will remain critical to the price of petrol in Nigeria.

The latest developments therefore suggest that local refining has changed Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape, but it has not disconnected petrol prices from the international oil market.

Why Petrol Remains Expensive Despite Dangote Refinery’s Local Production

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