US–Iran Crisis Drives ₦5.13tn Oil Windfall for Nigeria - Newstrends
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US–Iran Crisis Drives ₦5.13tn Oil Windfall for Nigeria

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Nigerians May Pay More for Fuel as Global Oil Prices Surge Above $100 Per Barrel

US–Iran Crisis Drives ₦5.13tn Oil Windfall for Nigeria

Nigeria has recorded an estimated ₦5.13 trillion surge in oil revenue within two months, driven by a sharp rise in global crude prices following escalating tensions linked to the United States–Iran geopolitical crisis. The development significantly exceeded projections in the Federal Government’s 2026 budget and temporarily strengthened fiscal inflows.

The crisis, which began with crude trading below $70 per barrel, triggered a sustained rally that pushed prices above $120 at some point, with Brent crude hovering around $110 per barrel and Nigeria’s premium grade, Bonny Light trading as high as $134 per barrel in recent sessions.

Nigeria’s 2026 budget was based on conservative oil assumptions, including a production target of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar. At these assumptions, projected daily oil revenue stood at about $116.73 million (₦163.42 billion). However, these projections were quickly overtaken as global market conditions shifted sharply.

In March, crude production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, below the target by about 250,000 barrels. Despite the shortfall, higher prices lifted earnings significantly. With an average crude price of $95.03 per barrel and an exchange rate of ₦1,370 to the dollar, daily revenue rose to about ₦201.80 billion, creating a daily surplus of ₦38.38 billion and a total windfall of approximately ₦1.19 trillion for the month.

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April recorded even stronger gains as both output and prices increased. Production rose to an average of 1.7 million barrels per day, while crude prices surged to $127.05 per barrel. With an exchange rate of ₦1,365 to the dollar, daily revenue climbed to about ₦294.84 billion, producing a daily excess of ₦131.42 billion and pushing the total April windfall to approximately ₦3.94 trillion.

Combined, March and April generated a total excess oil revenue of ₦5.13 trillion, with March contributing ₦1.19 trillion and April accounting for ₦3.94 trillion. Analysts note that this surge was driven mainly by higher global crude prices rather than increased production, underscoring Nigeria’s continued exposure to external oil market shocks.

Simulations show that without the price surge, earnings would have been significantly lower. At benchmark pricing, March revenue would have fallen to about ₦4.27 trillion equivalent, while April revenue would have stood at about ₦4.52 trillion equivalent, highlighting the scale of the windfall created by global price volatility.

Despite the increase in government revenue, Nigerians are experiencing rising fuel costs. Dangote Refinery recently adjusted gantry prices to about ₦1,275 per litre, while retail fuel prices have climbed to between ₦1,350 and ₦1,400 per litre across several locations. This has further increased transport and food inflation nationwide.

Nigeria’s crude pricing structure has also adjusted in response to global market movements, with key crude grades such as Bonny Light and Forcados recording notable price increases for May-loading cargoes. These adjustments reflect stronger international demand and tighter supply conditions.

Energy stakeholders have expressed concern that the revenue windfall is not translating into relief for citizens. Some industry operators warn that petrol prices could rise above ₦1,500 per litre if geopolitical tensions persist, while economists describe the situation as a “two-edged sword” that boosts government earnings but worsens cost-of-living pressures.

Calls have intensified for targeted government intervention, including direct support for vulnerable households, improved social welfare data systems, and measures to cushion the impact of rising transport and food costs. However, experts note that the absence of reliable national data continues to limit effective intervention.

Local refiners have also called for reforms in crude pricing for domestic supply, arguing that benchmarking local crude strictly to international prices inflates costs and undermines local refining operations. Economists have further suggested the adoption of a stable domestic pricing framework to reduce volatility in fuel prices.

Overall, while the ₦5.13 trillion oil windfall provides short-term fiscal relief, analysts warn it reinforces Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on volatile global oil markets. The situation highlights a recurring pattern in which external geopolitical tensions boost revenue while simultaneously increasing domestic economic pressure.

 

US–Iran Crisis Drives ₦5.13tn Oil Windfall for Nigeria

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OAU Investigates Death of Final-Year Student as Police Begin Probe

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OAU Investigates Death of Final-Year Student as Police Begin Probe
OAU Investigates Death of Final-Year Student as Police Begin Probe

Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State, is investigating the death of a final-year student of the institution.

The student, Oluwole Oluwosegun, was studying Materials Science and Engineering at the university.

According to the university’s Public Relations Officer, Olarewaju Abiodun, the incident occurred on Tuesday afternoon at the student’s off-campus residence around the Damico area of Ooni Layout, Ile-Ife.

After receiving the report, the university’s Quick Response and Security (QRS) Team went to the location. The team also contacted the Nigeria Police, after which officers from the ‘A’ Division in Moore, Ile-Ife, joined them at the scene.

The university later took the student to its Health Centre, where a medical doctor confirmed his death.

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Police Begin Investigation

Following the incident, university authorities handed relevant information and items recovered from the scene to the police to support their investigation.

The police have since begun inquiries into the circumstances surrounding the student’s death.

Meanwhile, the university said it had informed the appropriate student affairs authorities to provide necessary follow-up, particularly regarding the welfare and emotional support of students affected by the incident.

Vice-Chancellor Professor Simeon Bamire also expressed condolences to the student’s family, friends, classmates and colleagues.

The university further encouraged students facing severe emotional distress, relationship difficulties, financial pressure or other personal challenges to seek help from trusted people and available university support services.

Professor Bamire reaffirmed the institution’s commitment to the welfare of its students and staff, stressing that no student should feel they must face overwhelming difficulties alone.

OAU Investigates Death of Final-Year Student as Police Begin Probe

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Niger State Urges Local Communities to Protect Newly Completed Public Schools

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Niger State Urges Local Communities to Protect Newly Completed Public Schools

Basic education officials deliver modern classrooms to help children learn safely, kicking off an ambitious statewide renovation drive.

State education leaders in Niger State are calling on neighborhood residents and parent groups to take good care of newly renovated primary schools.

On Wednesday, the head of the Niger State Universal Basic Education Board, Dr. Ibrahim A. Liman, reminded communities that public classrooms belong to everyone, warning that state funding can only make a lasting difference when local people watch over these shared spaces.

To prepare for handing over the keys, board officials visited Zango Primary School in Kontagora and Richard Lander Primary School in New Bussa. These two locations are the first to finish out of seven model schools currently under construction.

During their visits, team members inspected classrooms to make sure builders followed high safety standards, while encouraging neighbors to keep the grounds secure, tidy, and ready for pupils.

Furthermore, state officials explained that these building projects are part of a larger plan to improve early education across every community. Alongside these new classrooms, the board is starting repair work on about 400 primary schools throughout the state.

In addition to fixing desks and roofs, authorities are upgrading classroom teaching tools and supporting teachers. As a result, children across all backgrounds will have safe, welcoming spaces to learn and grow together.

 

Niger State Urges Local Communities to Protect Newly Completed Public Schools

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Adamawa Health Officials Report 20 Deaths from Suspected Diphtheria Cases

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Adamawa Health Officials Report 20 Deaths from Suspected Diphtheria Cases
A typical sign of Diphtheria
Adamawa Health Officials Report 20 Deaths from Suspected Diphtheria Cases

Parents and caregivers are advised to seek early medical help and update childhood vaccinations as response teams expand outreach.

Health authorities in Adamawa State are responding to a diphtheria outbreak that has caused 20 deaths across 13 local government areas. Speaking on Wednesday, State Epidemiologist Jones Steven Kadabiyu confirmed that health workers have recorded 126 suspected cases throughout the state, with six patients currently receiving medical care in local hospitals.

Diphtheria is a serious bacterial illness that spreads through airborne droplets from coughing or close personal contact. It mainly affects the throat and airway, causing sore throats, mild fevers, swollen neck glands, and difficulty swallowing or breathing.

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Health officials emphasized that the biggest risk to patients has been waiting too long to visit a health center, as some families try informal remedies at home first before seeking professional medical attention.

The state government is working alongside health partners to track new cases, provide specialized antibiotics and treatments, and protect medical workers and family members.

Officials stressed that while diphtheria can affect people of any age, young children are the most vulnerable to serious complications. Parents and guardians are strongly encouraged to ensure their children are up to date on their routine vaccines and to visit the nearest clinic immediately if anyone develops throat swelling or breathing issues.

Adamawa Health Officials Report 20 Deaths from Suspected Diphtheria Cases

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