UK faces ‘recession risks’ as interest rates bite - Newstrends
Connect with us

International

UK faces ‘recession risks’ as interest rates bite

Published

on

UK faces ‘recession risks’ as interest rates bite

The UK economy is on course to shrink in the three months to the end of September and could tip into recession, a closely-watched survey suggests.

The S&P Global/CIPS UK purchasing managers’ index found rising interest rates and weaker household spending contributed to a sharp drop in demand for goods and services in August.

The index fell to 47.9 in August – its lowest level in two and half years – down from 50.8 in July.

Anything below 50 marks a contraction.

Economists suggested that PMI figures, which are a measure of the health of the economy, showed that the Bank of England’s efforts to tame inflation – the rate at which prices rise – were beginning to work.

After the report, the pound fell and City analysts lowered their expectations of where the Bank’s interest levels would peak to 5.5% from 6%. Rates currently stand at 5.25%, up from close to zero in late 2021.

However, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the figures also suggested “the fight against inflation is carrying a heavy cost in terms of heightened recession risks”.

“A renewed contraction of the economy already looks inevitable, as an increasingly severe manufacturing downturn is accompanied by a further faltering of the service sector’s spring revival,” he said.

According to official figures, UK inflation was 6.4% in July which, although slower than the previous month, is still near record levels and much higher than the government’s aim of 2%.

In response the Bank has put up interest rates 14 times since 2021, hoping that by making it more expensive to borrow money, consumer demand will cool and price rises will slow.

However, repeated interest rate rises tend to drag on economic growth as it becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow and spend.

Paul Dales, economist at Capital Economics, said the survey would encourage the Bank “that higher rates are working” but added that economic would soon contract and a “mild recession is on the way”.

According to the PMIs, both the UK activity fell in both the manufacturing and services sectors in August.

Rhys Herbert, a senior economist at Lloyds Bank, added that “the sharper-than-expected drop in retail sales in July” was also a warning of “further possible weakness as we enter autumn”.

“Some businesses continue to also experience challenges with recruitment, resulting in upward pressure on wages,” Mr Herbert added.

Pay has been rising at a record rate but the Bank of England has warned that wage increases will make it harder to get inflation down.

UK faces ‘recession risks’ as interest rates bite

Loading

International

$100 Crude Returns: Escalating US-Iran War Strains Global Maritime Chokepoints

Published

on

World oil markets entered dangerous territory on Wednesday as Brent crude breached the symbolic $100 per barrel barrier amid mounting fears of sustained supply shocks in the Middle East. With the clash between the United States and Iran now stretching into its seventh month, commercial energy traders are growing increasingly convinced that diplomatic efforts have stalled and that physical barrels could become harder to move out of the Gulf.

Brent crude serves as the premier global benchmark because it sets the pricing baseline for roughly two-thirds of the world’s internationally traded oil contracts. Sourced from the North Sea, its light, sweet quality and direct access to deepwater marine terminals make it easy to refine and ship anywhere in the world. When Brent moves, it immediately resets the price tag for physical cargoes and national crude streams from West Africa to the Middle East, making its climb past $100 a direct trigger for broader global price shifts.

The immediate catalyst for the rally came from fresh exchanges in the Persian Gulf and surrounding transit hubs. Iran announced a retaliatory strike on a U.S. facility in Jordan following American operations against Iranian naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the market alarm, Iranian authorities declared commercial oil tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain to be potential targets, effectively freezing merchant shipping confidence across the waterway.

Alternative export pathways offer little immediate relief. Saudi efforts to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz by redirecting crude toward the Red Sea have collided with renewed military strikes by Houthi forces targeting energy installations around the Bab al-Mandab strait. With both primary and fallback shipping lanes compromised, the flow of crude faces its most severe maritime disruption in years.

Beyond the energy trade, triple-digit crude threatens to undo recent progress against global inflation. Central banks worldwide are facing renewed pressure to keep borrowing costs elevated to prevent higher transport and production bills from embedding into retail prices. The prospect of persistent inflation and high interest rates pulled down major equity indices in the United States and Europe, overshadowing selective gains in Asian tech sectors.

Loading

Continue Reading

International

Truly Depraved Rapist Jailed for 17 Years After Violent Attack on Woman

Published

on

A 24-year-old Nigerian national, Gift Oladele, dragged a young woman into woodland and violently raped her has been jailed for 17 years after a judge described his actions as “truly depraved”.

Gift Oladele carried out the attack in Wrexham, North Wales, in September last year after approaching the victim, who was 19 at the time, as she walked home from a night out.

Oladele was convicted of rape and sexual assault at Mold Crown Court in March. He was sentenced on Thursday.

 

How the Attack Happened

The court heard that Oladele approached the woman and her friends outside a takeaway in Wrexham city centre. He initially appeared friendly and flirtatious before offering to walk home with her.

According to prosecutor James Coutts, Oladele accompanied the woman until they reached an isolated area, where he grabbed her by the mouth and forced her into the woods.

He then carried out a violent rape.

“She described being terrified,” Coutts told the court. “She did what she thought she needed to do to get through the attack.”

Oladele threatened to find and harm the victim if she reported the rape. He also threatened to take photographs of her and post them online.

Despite the threats, the woman returned home and immediately told her parents, who contacted the police.

Oladele was arrested the following day at his cousin’s home in Wrexham. Officers said he had attempted to hide a mobile phone, which contained searches relating to sexual attacks.

The court heard that Oladele had a “fascination in forced sexual abuse and rape” and that he appeared to be acting out a fantasy shown in the videos he had searched for.

 

Victim Describes Lasting Trauma

In a victim impact statement, the woman told the court that she continued to wake up from nightmares in which Oladele had tracked her down.

“I’m petrified,” she said.

She also described taking medication to prevent HIV infection after the assault and suffering long-term emotional and psychological effects.

 

“I feel ashamed, and somehow damaged, since what he did to me,” she said.

“The emotional impact has been very significant.

“I can’t go anywhere on my own anymore.

“I feel unsafe.”

Judge Simon Mills praised the woman for her courage during and after the attack.

“You showed exceptional courage during the incident and afterwards,” he told her.

 

Previous Conviction and Deportation Appeal

At the time of the Wrexham attack, Oladele was already on bail over another rape allegation in Manchester dating from November 2024.

He had also been jailed in 2022 for a sexually motivated attack.

The court heard that Oladele was later due to be deported to Nigeria but successfully challenged the decision on human rights grounds.

An immigration tribunal judge described the deportation case as “finely balanced”, acknowledging the seriousness of Oladele’s previous offence and the public interest in deporting foreign criminals.

However, the tribunal also considered his ties to the United Kingdom, where he had grown up, and the consequences of relocating to Nigeria.

The Home Office made two attempts to appeal the decision, but both appeals were rejected.

 

Judge Calls Defendant Dangerous

During sentencing, The Judge described Oladele’s actions as “truly depraved”.

 

“You subjected her to a terrible violation,” he said.

“You are a dangerous offender.”

The judge said Oladele posed an exceptionally high risk of harm to young women and had shown “absolutely no remorse whatsoever”.

The Home Office described the case as horrific and said Oladele’s imprisonment was the right outcome.

The victim’s account has highlighted not only the brutality of the attack but also the lasting fear and emotional damage that sexual violence can cause long after the offender has been convicted.

Loading

Continue Reading

International

More Than 1,000 Migrants Rescued Off West Africa in One Week

Published

on

More than 1,000 migrants attempting to reach Spain’s Canary Islands have been rescued from the Atlantic Ocean after seven boats reportedly broke down during the dangerous journey from West Africa.

(more…)

Loading

Continue Reading

Trending