US-Iran Ceasefire: Why Petrol Still Costs N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Crash to $70 - Newstrends
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US-Iran Ceasefire: Why Petrol Still Costs N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Crash to $70

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NMDPRA Unveils Sweeping Draft Rules to Ban Fuel Price-Fixing, Artificial Scarcity

US-Iran Ceasefire: Why Petrol Still Costs N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Crash to $70

The sharp decline in global crude oil prices following the ceasefire agreement that ended months of hostilities between the United States and Iran has renewed questions over why petrol prices in Nigeria remain around N1,200 per litre despite the easing of pressures that had pushed up energy costs during the conflict. Brent crude, the international benchmark against which Nigeria’s Bonny Light is priced, has fallen to around $70 per barrel from a peak of about $126 recorded during the height of the conflict, representing a decline of more than 42 per cent. The latest oil price slump has effectively erased the war premium that had built into the market amid fears that hostilities could disrupt supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s crude and liquefied natural gas shipments transit. The three-month conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, sent shockwaves through global energy markets as traders feared a blockade of the strait and a possible escalation involving Gulf producers. The uncertainty pushed crude prices sharply higher, with Brent crude climbing from around $68 per barrel before the crisis to above $120 and peaking near $126 per barrel in April. The rise translated into higher prices for refined products worldwide and put upward pressure on petrol prices in importing countries, including Nigeria. Before the outbreak of the conflict, petrol sold for between N830 and N900 per litre across much of Nigeria. As crude prices surged by approximately 85 per cent, pump prices climbed to around N1,360 per litre, representing an increase of about 54 per cent. However, while crude oil has surrendered much of its war-induced gains, domestic petrol prices have been far slower to follow suit.

Analysts say the discrepancy highlights an asymmetry that has long characterized fuel markets globally—what experts describe as the “rockets and feathers” effect, where prices rise like rockets when crude increases but descend like feathers when oil prices retreat. The de-escalation of tensions and diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran have eased concerns over supply disruptions, leading to a broad sell-off in oil markets. Additional downward pressure came from expectations that Iranian exports could return more fully to international markets and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would normalize. Concerns about weaker global demand and rising output from non-OPEC producers have also contributed to the decline. Based on analysis of the price transmission mechanism, when crude prices climbed from $68 to $126 per barrel, petrol prices rose from roughly N850 to N1,300 per litre. Using the same mechanism, the current decline in crude prices of more than 41 per cent should ordinarily place petrol prices between N900 and N1,000 per litre. However, analysts caution that crude oil accounts for only part of the final cost of petrol. Exchange rates, shipping charges, storage costs, transportation expenses, dealer margins, and taxes all influence the retail price. Even after accounting for these variables, energy experts say Premium Motor Spirit should realistically retail around N1,000 per litre.

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Following the de-escalation of tensions, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut its petrol gantry price by N75 per litre from N1,250 to N1,175, effective June 16, and also lowered diesel and aviation fuel prices. The refinery attributed the reduction to improved market fundamentals following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. It also lowered its coastal supply price from N1,595,790 to N1,495,215 per metric tonne, reducing procurement costs for marketers. The move strengthened expectations that pump prices would decline further. However, many Nigerians argued that the reductions did not fully reflect the sharp decline in crude oil prices. A source within the Dangote Group noted that the refinery was still observing market developments while processing crude purchased during the crisis period, adding that prices could still drop to as low as N900 per litre, “but we still have the expensive crude in our tanks.”

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chief Chinedu Ukadike, explained that lower ex-depot prices are already easing pressure on marketers and improving their capacity to stock products. According to him, the decline in supply costs has reduced the amount of working capital required to sustain operations. Ukadike noted that marketers who previously struggled to finance product purchases would now be able to increase stock levels, thereby improving product availability across retail outlets. Ukadike also dismissed concerns that marketers could hoard products in anticipation of future price increases, noting that intense competition within the deregulated downstream sector would make such practices difficult to sustain. “Competition will force marketers to sell at prevailing market prices. Nobody can afford to hold products indefinitely because other operators will undercut them,” he said. He projected that petrol could sell for between N1,200 and N1,250 per litre in Lagos once new stock enters the market, while prices may remain slightly higher in other parts of the country due to transportation costs. Ukadike urged consumers to be patient, noting that immediate reductions would expose marketers to losses on existing stock.

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The issue is not peculiar to Nigeria. In the United States, President Donald Trump has ordered the Department of Justice to investigate major oil companies over allegations that they are failing to reduce pump prices in line with falling crude oil costs. In a post on Truth Social, Trump accused oil companies of exploiting consumers, writing: “The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged’.” The American Petroleum Institute rejected allegations of price manipulation, arguing that retail fuel prices do not instantly mirror changes in crude oil prices because refining costs, inventories and supply chain dynamics influence final prices. Analysts describe this phenomenon as the “rockets and feathers” effect.

Industry observers say increased liquidity among marketers could intensify competition and ultimately accelerate the transmission of lower crude prices to consumers. They note that the growing influence of Dangote Refinery, coupled with increasing rivalry among importers and independent marketers, is changing pricing dynamics in the downstream sector. Some analysts believe that if Brent crude remains below $75 per barrel and geopolitical stability is sustained, petrol prices could gradually decline below N1,000 per litre and possibly approach N900 per litre in the coming days. The expected decline could provide much-needed relief for households and businesses battling elevated transportation and energy costs. Since the removal of subsidy by President Bola Tinubu in May 2023, petrol prices have remained one of the major drivers of inflation, affecting food prices, manufacturing costs and the overall cost of living. The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has called on refiners, depot owners, and importers to reduce fuel prices following the decline in global crude prices, urging the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to continue issuing import licences to qualified marketers to encourage competition. However, experts caution that the ceasefire is not yet permanent—a 60-day extension has been agreed while negotiations continue over Iran’s nuclear programme. Market observers also note that the restoration of full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may take months, as vessel operators and insurers remain cautious, preferring to observe sustained safe transits before re-engaging the route.

US-Iran Ceasefire: Why Petrol Still Costs N1,200/Litre Despite Crude Crash to $70

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Omoda, Jaecoo Shake Global Auto Market, Hit One Million Sales in Three Years

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Omoda, Jaecoo Shake Global Auto Market, Hit One Million Sales in Three Years

 

Chinese automotive brands Omoda and Jaecoo are rapidly reshaping the global automobile industry, posting remarkable sales growth and displacing long-established competitors in key markets barely three years after their debut.

Owned by Chinese auto giant Chery, the sister brands have emerged as two of the world’s fastest-growing vehicle marques, recording more than one million cumulative sales across 64 countries by April 2026 while making significant inroads into mature markets traditionally dominated by legacy manufacturers.

Their most striking success has come in the United Kingdom, one of Europe’s most competitive and brand-conscious automotive markets. After entering the UK in 2024, the brands recorded 48,087 new vehicle registrations in 2025, accounting for 2.38 per cent of the market.

The performance placed Omoda and Jaecoo ahead of several long-established manufacturers that have spent decades building customer loyalty in the country.

Driving much of the momentum is the Jaecoo 7 SUV, which finished 2025 as the UK’s fourth most popular retail vehicle before going on to become the country’s best-selling new car in March 2026. It has also ranked as the UK’s third best-selling new car so far in 2026.

Within just 19 months of launching in Britain, the two brands had surpassed 80,000 cumulative vehicle sales, underlining their rapid acceptance among consumers.

Their success extends well beyond the UK.

In Europe, Omoda and Jaecoo sold more than 340,000 vehicles in less than two years by June 2026, earning recognition from industry observers as the continent’s fastest-growing automotive brands.

Australia has witnessed a similar trend. Barely a year after their launch in May 2025, the brands crossed the 10,000-unit sales mark, while the Jaecoo J5 emerged as the country’s best-selling small electric SUV in May 2026.

The brands have also recorded notable achievements in Asia and South America. In Thailand, the Jaecoo J5 topped the country’s electric vehicle sales rankings for six consecutive months, while in Brazil, the Jaecoo 7 Hybrid was named the country’s “Hybrid of the Year.”

Industry analysts attribute the brands’ rapid rise to a combination of striking design, advanced technology, generous standard features and competitive pricing that offers consumers strong value compared with many established rivals.

Safety credentials have also strengthened consumer confidence. Both the Jaecoo 7 and the Omoda 5 have earned five-star ratings from Euro NCAP, Europe’s independent vehicle safety assessment authority, helping to reassure buyers who may be unfamiliar with the brands.

Although many traditional manufacturers still enjoy stronger heritage and decades of brand recognition, industry observers say buying decisions are increasingly being driven by value, technology, design and safety rather than brand familiarity alone.

That shift has created opportunities for newer entrants such as Omoda and Jaecoo, whose rapid global expansion suggests that the automotive landscape is undergoing a significant transformation.

For emerging markets such as Nigeria, where Chinese automobile brands are steadily gaining acceptance, the performance of Omoda and Jaecoo offers another indication of the growing influence of Chinese manufacturers in the global automotive industry.

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Xenophobia: MTN, Stanbic IBTC, other South African firms face pressure in Nigeria

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Xenophobia: MTN, Stanbic IBTC, other MTN, Stanbic IBTC, firms face pressure in Nigeria

Xenophobia: MTN, Stanbic IBTC, other South African firms face pressure in Nigeria

South African companies with identifiable business interests estimated at about N20.43 trillion in Nigeria are facing growing uncertainty as pressure mounts on the Federal Government to take stronger action over renewed xenophobic attacks against Nigerians in South Africa.

The renewed violence has triggered calls for economic retaliation, with lawmakers, student groups and other stakeholders urging the government to consider measures against South African businesses operating in Nigeria.

The calls followed reports of attacks on foreign nationals, killings, looting of businesses and the displacement of Nigerians in different parts of South Africa.

The Federal Government has so far focused largely on diplomatic engagement and measures to protect Nigerians in the country, including the evacuation of 1,490 Nigerians from South Africa in five phases between June 10 and July 15.

Nigeria has also continued to press South African authorities to strengthen protection for Nigerians and other foreign nationals and ensure that those responsible for attacks are brought to justice.

The latest dispute has, however, renewed scrutiny of the extensive South African investments in Nigeria, which span telecommunications, banking, insurance, retail, hospitality, logistics, aviation, manufacturing and property-related businesses.

The estimated N20.43tn figure is based largely on publicly available market capitalisation, asset and property valuations of major South African-linked businesses operating in Nigeria. It should not be interpreted as the precise value of South Africa’s foreign direct investment stock in Nigeria.

Calls for retaliation

Pressure for economic retaliation intensified after South African authorities ruled out compensation for Nigerians who abandoned businesses and properties during the latest wave of xenophobic violence.

Senator Adams Oshiomhole called on the Federal Government to consider appropriating profits made by South African companies operating in Nigeria if South Africa failed to compensate Nigerian victims.

Oshiomhole argued that Nigerian authorities should explore stronger economic measures to protect the interests of citizens affected by xenophobic attacks.

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The proposal, however, has not become government policy, while the Senate subsequently rejected the idea of using profits from South African companies in Nigeria to compensate victims.

The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has also threatened protests against major South African-linked businesses, including MTN and MultiChoice, in response to the attacks on Nigerians.

The growing calls have raised concerns about whether the diplomatic dispute could eventually spill into Nigeria’s business environment.

Nigerians killed in South Africa

The renewed violence has also resulted in deaths.

Among those killed were Amaramiro Emmanuel and Ekpenyong Andrew, who died in separate incidents in April.

Two other Nigerians, Emeka Iroegbu and Musa Joe, were reported killed in separate incidents on June 28.

By late July, reports indicated that at least four Nigerians had been killed during the latest wave of violence, while Nigerian officials said many more Nigerians had suffered harassment, intimidation, property losses and other forms of abuse.

The Nigerian government subsequently intensified its response, including the voluntary evacuation programme that returned 1,490 Nigerians from South Africa.

The evacuation was coordinated through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Nigerian High Commission in Pretoria, the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission and other government agencies.

South African businesses in Nigeria

South Africa’s commercial presence in Nigeria extends well beyond the brands most familiar to consumers.

The most prominent South African-linked companies listed on the Nigerian Exchange are MTN Nigeria Communications Plc and Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc.

MTN Nigeria is one of the largest companies on the Nigerian Exchange by market value, while Stanbic IBTC is a major player in Nigeria’s banking and financial services industry.

Other South African-linked interests in Nigeria include Rand Merchant Bank, Sanlam, Alexander Forbes, Broll Property Group, Metrofile, PEP, Mr Price, Pick n Pay, Nampak and businesses associated with the hospitality, aviation and manufacturing sectors.

Some companies commonly described as South African businesses have, however, undergone ownership changes over the years.

For instance, Protea Hotels, which has South African origins, is now part of Marriott International’s global hotel network. Some Nigerian operations also involve local investment partners.

This makes it necessary to distinguish between companies with South African origins, companies controlled by South African parent groups and businesses that still have substantial South African ownership.

How the N20.43tn figure was calculated

The estimated N20.43tn value of South African-linked interests in Nigeria is largely derived from the market values and publicly available asset information of major companies.

MTN Nigeria and Stanbic IBTC account for the bulk of the figure when their respective market capitalisations are considered.

However, market capitalisation should not be treated as the amount of money invested by a foreign parent company.

Both MTN Nigeria and Stanbic IBTC are publicly listed Nigerian companies with shares held by Nigerian and international investors.

Consequently, any action targeted at the companies could affect not only South African interests but also Nigerian shareholders, pension funds, employees, customers, suppliers and government revenues.

Nigeria maintains diplomatic pressure

Despite the growing calls for retaliation, the Federal Government has continued to pursue diplomatic channels.

South African International Relations and Cooperation Minister Ronald Lamola visited Abuja as President Cyril Ramaphosa’s special envoy amid efforts to ease tensions between the two countries.

The discussions focused on the safety of Nigerians and other foreign nationals in South Africa, migration issues and the broader state of Nigeria-South Africa relations.

Nigeria has maintained that South Africa must do more to prevent xenophobic attacks and protect Nigerians legally resident in the country.

South Africa, for its part, has reiterated its opposition to xenophobia, racism and discrimination while insisting that criminality should not be associated with nationality.

The dispute has also generated concerns over compensation for Nigerians who lost businesses and property while fleeing the violence.

South African authorities have rejected calls for government compensation, arguing that the state cannot compensate individuals for private property abandoned during the unrest.

Economic stakes for both countries

Any decision by Nigeria to retaliate against South African companies could have consequences for both countries.

MTN Nigeria, for example, provides telecommunications services to millions of Nigerians and employs thousands of people directly and indirectly through its wider supply chain.

Stanbic IBTC also has a significant presence in Nigeria’s banking, investment and financial services sectors.

Any disruption to their operations could therefore affect consumers, workers, shareholders, suppliers and government tax revenues.

South Africa also has significant economic interests in Nigeria, making the relationship important to businesses in both countries.

The situation has consequently placed the Federal Government in a difficult position: responding firmly to xenophobic attacks against Nigerians while avoiding measures that could undermine jobs, investments and economic stability at home.

For now, Nigeria appears to be relying on diplomatic pressure, consular intervention and the protection of affected citizens rather than imposing broad economic sanctions.

But as calls for retaliation continue to grow, the future of South African investments in Nigeria could become a major factor in the increasingly tense relationship between Africa’s two largest economies.

Xenophobia: MTN, Stanbic IBTC, other South African firms face pressure in Nigeria

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NMDPRA Unveils Sweeping Draft Rules to Ban Fuel Price-Fixing, Artificial Scarcity

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NMDPRA Unveils Sweeping Draft Rules to Ban Fuel Price-Fixing, Artificial Scarcity

NMDPRA Unveils Sweeping Draft Rules to Ban Fuel Price-Fixing, Artificial Scarcity

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has proposed comprehensive new regulations aimed at eliminating anti-competitive practices, including fuel price-fixing, market allocation, bid-rigging, and artificial scarcity, across the country’s midstream and downstream petroleum industry. The draft framework, released for public consultation on August 6, 2026, comes amid growing concerns over coordinated pricing among major fuel importers and follows allegations that some operators were selling imported Premium Motor Spirit at prices significantly above locally refined alternatives from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The proposed Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations, 2026, if adopted, would prohibit petroleum companies from entering into any formal or informal agreements that prevent, restrict, or distort competition. The NMDPRA, in a public notice issued on Thursday, invited licensees, permit holders, and other stakeholders to submit comments on the draft regulations within 21 days, in compliance with Section 216(1) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which requires stakeholder consultation before regulations are finalised. The notice, signed by the Authority’s Chief Executive, Rabiu A. Umar, directed industry participants to review the draft on the NMDPRA website and submit observations through the prescribed format. A stakeholders’ consultation forum has been scheduled for September 22, 2026, at the Authority’s headquarters in Abuja, where industry players, civil society organisations, and consumer groups will have the opportunity to provide direct input on the proposed framework.

The draft regulations target a wide range of coordinated conduct that could harm competition and disadvantage consumers. Under Part IV, titled “Collusive Agreements and Anti-Competitive Coordination,” the framework states that “No licensee, market participant, or group of undertakings in the midstream or downstream petroleum sector shall enter into any agreement, arrangement, understanding, or concerted practice, whether formal or informal, written or oral, explicit or tacit, that has the object or effect of preventing, restricting, or distorting competition.” The regulations specifically identify price-fixing or coordinated pricing behaviour as prohibited, including agreements on pump prices, ex-depot prices, margins, discounts, surcharges, freight charges, and pricing benchmarks. If approved, petroleum companies would no longer be permitted to jointly set commercial terms that influence retail fuel prices, a practice that has historically kept pump prices artificially high even when global crude prices decline.

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The proposed framework also seeks to outlaw market allocation arrangements, where competitors divide customers, geographical territories, product lines, or supply areas among themselves instead of competing openly for market share. Additionally, the regulations would prohibit bid-rigging and collusive tendering in procurement processes, as well as collective supply restrictions where companies jointly reduce production, imports, throughput, or product supply to create artificial scarcity or manipulate market conditions. Such practices have been a longstanding concern in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, where consumers have frequently faced fuel queues and sudden price hikes that appear disconnected from global market trends. The NMDPRA is also targeting tacit collusion and price signalling, including the use of public statements, trade association meetings, or indirect communications to influence competitors’ pricing decisions or exchange commercially sensitive information such as future pricing plans, production schedules, customer lists, and bidding strategies.

Beyond pricing and supply coordination, the regulations aim to prevent restrictive commercial arrangements that could limit market access for smaller operators and independent marketers. The draft proposes restrictions on exclusive supply agreements, excessively long-term contracts, and take-or-pay obligations that effectively lock buyers into a single supplier, thereby reducing their ability to source fuel from more competitive alternatives. The Authority also plans to scrutinise tying and bundling arrangements, where companies with significant market power require dealers or buyers to purchase unrelated products or services as a condition for accessing fuel supply or infrastructure services. These practices, according to the draft regulations, could stifle the growth of independent marketers and reduce consumer choice in the downstream market.

To strengthen enforcement, the regulations empower the NMDPRA to monitor press releases, investor calls, trade association meetings, and public statements by dominant market players for possible anti-competitive coordination. The Authority would also be authorised to investigate suspected anti-competitive practices and work alongside the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) on competition-related matters, ensuring a coordinated regulatory approach across Nigeria’s economic sectors. Under the proposed framework, companies found guilty of serious anti-competitive practices could face administrative fines of up to five per cent of their annual turnover from regulated petroleum activities in Nigeria, while persistent offenders risk suspension or revocation of their licences. Directors or managers directly involved in serious violations could face personal liability, management disqualification, or prosecution where applicable, signalling a tough stance on corporate misconduct.

The regulatory push comes amid renewed scrutiny of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market following concerning developments in petrol pricing dynamics after the entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. In July 2026, independent petroleum marketers accused major fuel importers, including AA Rano and Matrix, of selling imported petrol at coordinated prices around N1,350 per litre, significantly above what Dangote had been offering to marketers. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) argued that such practices defeated the purpose of import licences meant to encourage competition and moderate prices for Nigerian consumers. The allegations remain contested, and no regulatory finding of collusion has been published, but the incident has heightened public and official concern about the effectiveness of deregulation in delivering price benefits to consumers.

Official price data illustrate the pressure on regulators and the urgency of the proposed rules. National Bureau of Statistics figures show the average pump price surged from N1,034.76 per litre in January 2026 to N1,596.25 in May 2026, representing a 55.31 per cent rise over the same period in 2025. The NMDPRA has confirmed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery accounted for 87.55 per cent of petrol supplied to the domestic market in May 2026, highlighting significant market concentration that could potentially enable dominant players to influence prices and supply conditions. The proposed regulations form part of broader reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which expanded the role of regulators in promoting efficiency, transparency, and fair competition across Nigeria’s petroleum value chain, moving away from the opaque and subsidy-dependent system that characterised the sector for decades.

If adopted after stakeholder consultations, the new rules will provide the NMDPRA with a dedicated legal framework to investigate and sanction anti-competitive conduct while supporting a more transparent, competitive, and consumer-focused petroleum market. The regulations would also strengthen Nigeria’s position in the regional energy market by fostering a more predictable and investment-friendly environment for domestic and foreign investors. The Authority has also signalled interest in improving price transparency across the region, saying it is exploring pathways for establishing an African petroleum products reference price benchmark that reflects regional market realities and protects consumers from arbitrary pricing. Stakeholders have until August 27, 2026, to submit their comments, and the September 22 consultation forum is expected to generate robust debate on how best to balance competition, investment, and consumer protection in Nigeria’s evolving petroleum sector.

NMDPRA Unveils Sweeping Draft Rules to Ban Fuel Price-Fixing, Artificial Scarcity

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