Tight monetary policy threatens FG’s N720bn borrowing plan – Newstrends
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Tight monetary policy threatens FG’s N720bn borrowing plan

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Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele

The Federal Government’s plan to borrow about N720 billion through FGN bond auctions in the third quarter, Q3’22, has come under fresh threat following  increasing investors’ appetite for higher yields triggered by the adoption of  tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.

Recall that the CBN, in response to the five consecutive months rise in inflation rate to 18.6 per cent in June, launched a tight monetary policy regime May, 2022, raising the Monetary Policy Rate, MPR,   first by 150 basis points to 13 per cent in May and again by 100 basis points to 14 per cent in July.

This development effectively spurred increases in money market yields while intensifying investors’ appetite for higher returns across all instruments in all segments of the market.

Consequently, the first under-subscription was recorded in  FGN bond auction this year, as the auction held in July recorded 37 per cent under subscription and as a result, Debt Management Office, DMO could not achieve its sales target.

According to the FGN bond auction calendar for Q3’22 released by the Debt Management Office, DMO, the FG plans to raise between N630 billion and N720 billion during the quarter.

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The calendar shows that  the FG, through the DMO, seeks  to raise between N210 billion and N240 billion in each of the three months in the quarter, through subscription in three tranches of 10-year, 10-year, and 20-year original tenor respectively.

But the N225 billion FGN bond offered by the DMO at the July auction recorded 37 per cent under subscription as total subscription stood at N142 billion.

Though the 20-year bond, 13.00% FGN JAN 2042,  recorded 40 over subscription, as subscription stood at  for N104.92 as against N75 billion offered by the DMO, the 3-years    13.53% FGN MAR 2025 and 10-years 12.50% FGN APR 2032, recorded 84 per cent and 66 per cent under subscription respectively, as subscriptions stood at N11.75 billion and N25.62 billion respectively as against N75 billion offered for each bon tenor.

Consequently, the DMO could only achieve total sales of N123.9 billion, representing 45 per cent of its target for the month.

This was in spite of slight increases in the interest rates on the bonds offered by the DMO.

The auction results showed that the DMO raised the marginal rates for the 3-year, 10-year and 20-year bonds  to 11.0 per cent from 10 per cent, 13.0 per cent from  12.5 per cent and 13.7 per cent from  13.2 per cent  respectively in the June auction.

  Analysts’ insight

Investment analysts however noted that for the DMO to attract investors to future auctions it would have to offer higher rates given the inflation rate of 18.6 per cent and MPR at 14 per cent.

While noting that in spite of the impact of scarcity of funds and increasing appetite triggered by the CBN’s tight monetary policy, on future bond auctions, they expect the DMO to meet its funding target of N3.53 trillion to finance the projected deficit of N7.35 trillion  in the FGN’s 2022 budget.

Speaking in this regard, analysts at FBNQuest Securities, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “The total amount raised by the DMO this year amounts to N1.7 trillion. If we include sales based on non-competitive allotment, the gross amount rises to N1.96 trillion. This excludes smaller sums raised via other instruments including Sukuk and the FGN savings bond.

“Despite the DMO’s disappointing outing, the sum raised so far by the agency suggests that it is broadly on track to raise its total domestic funding target of N3.5 trillion (including the additional borrowings of N965 billion following revisions to the budget).

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“However, the tight liquidity conditions in the market may continue to negatively affect demand at auctions in the near term.

“There are tougher credit conditions on the international market following monetary policy tightening by most central banks globally. This may force the FGN to turn to the domestic market to source some of the N2.6 trillion in external borrowing highlighted in the 2022 budget.

“The last resort would be for the fiscal deficit to become unfunded, or in other words, funded by ways and means advances from the CBN.

“Given the tight liquidity conditions in the market, we see yields inching up by around 25-50bps across the curve over the coming weeks.”

Similarly, analysts at United Capital Plc, associated company in the First Bank Group, said: “In line with our expectations of an uptick in the yield environment in the sovereign bonds market, marginal rates across all the tenors climbed 90bps, 50bps, and 60bps to print at 11.00%, 13.00% and 13.75%, respectively. Investors opted toward a more relaxed approach in the auction, demanding higher yields, as the expectation of inflation, interest rates, and political risks all begin to crystalise. These follow persistent inflation, monetary policy normalisation globally and the increased perception of political risk as we approach the electioneering season.

“We expect a continued uptick in marginal rates at subsequent bond auctions, as we believe investors will remain standoffish. The DMO will need to reel in higher rates to attract fund managers’ interests.

“Also, the recent hawkish stance adopted by the CBN, hiking rates by 250bps in total (100bps at July’s MPC meeting), will drive investor’s appetite for increased rates.

“Notwithstanding, we maintain the FG’s apparent need to rely on the domestic debt market to fund its fiscal imbalance, as external debt market conditions remain unfavourable.   These factors will further impetus for shifting pricing power away from the FGN/DMO and into the hands of private sector asset managers.”

Business

Nigerians can now access N100bn consumer credit till May 14 – Tinubu

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Nigerians can now access N100bn consumer credit till May 14 – Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has approved the commencement of the N100 billion Consumer Credit Scheme for Nigerians to ease the economic hardship facing the country.

Indeed, the President said interested Nigerians could visit the portal of Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation before May 15, 2024.

President’s spokesperson, Ajuri Ngelale, revealed this in a statement on Wednesday.

Newstrends reports that food prices and other goods and services have skyrocketed since June last year after fuel subsidy removal.

The situation has been compounded by astronomical increase in foreign exchange rate, with the naira hitherto N450/$ before May 29 last year currently trading around N1,200 to a United States dollar at both official and parallel markets.

Part of the Wednesday’s statement read, “Consumer credit serves as the lifeblood of modern economies, enabling citizens to enhance their quality of life by accessing goods and services upfront, paying responsibly over time. It facilitates crucial purchases, such as homes, vehicles, education, and healthcare, which are essential for ongoing stability and the pursuit of their aspirations.

“Individuals build credit histories through responsible repayment, unlocking more opportunities for a better life.

“The increased demand for goods and services also stimulates local industry and job creation.

“The President believes every hardworking Nigerian should have access to social mobility, with consumer credit playing a pivotal role in achieving this vision.

“The Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (CREDICORP) achieves its mandate through the following: Strengthening Nigeria’s credit reporting systems and ensuring every economically active citizen has a dependable credit score. This score becomes personal equity they build, facilitating access to consumer credit, Offering credit guarantees and wholesale lending to financial institutions dedicated to broadening consumer credit access today and Promoting responsible consumer credit as a pathway to an improved quality of life, fostering a cultural shift towards growth and financial responsibility.

“In line with the President’s directive to expand consumer credit access to Nigerians, the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (CREDICORP) has launched a portal for Nigerians to express interest in receiving consumer credit.

“This initiative, in collaboration with financial institutions and cooperatives nationwide, aims to broaden consumer credit availability.

“Working Nigerians interested in receiving consumer credit can visit www.credicorp.ng to express interest. The deadline is May 15, 2024.

“The scheme will be rolled out in phases, starting with members of the civil service and cascading to members of the public.”

Recall that two months ago, a presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, announced that the Federal Executive Council had given the nod for the establishment of the Consumer Credit Scheme.

He said the President’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila, would lead a committee including the Budget Minister, Attorney-General, and Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Finance to make the scheme a reality.

In March, the Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service Chairman, Zacch Adedeji, had hinted that the Nigerian government would unveil the N100 billion consumer credit loan.

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Aviation

FG suspends Dana Air for comprehensive audit

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FG suspends Dana Air for comprehensive audit

The Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development has ordered the suspension of Dana Air flight operations.

This came about 24 hours after the airline’s runway excursion incident at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos.

The directive was passed on Wednesday to the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority to be effected.

A letter signed by the ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Dr Emmanuel Meribole, addressed to the NCAA said recent incidents involving Dana Air had raised concerns about the safety and financial viability of the airline’s operations.

It said the suspension would not be lifted until comprehensive audits on the Dana Air’s fleet had been conducted.

It stated that the audit would include safety protocols, maintenance procedures and financial health.

It stressed that the move to suspend the airline was aimed at ensuring the safety and well-being of Nigerians.

The statement reads, “As the supervisor overseeing our nation’s aviation safety and regulatory compliance, it has come to the Honourable Minister’s attention that recent incidents involving Dana Airline have raised serious concerns regarding both the safety and financial viability of their operations.

“In light of these incidents and with the paramount priority being the safety and well-being of our citizens and travelers, the Honourable Minister has directed that you immediately initiate the suspension of Dana Airline’s fleet until a comprehensive audit can be conducted. This audit should encompass all aspects of safety protocols, maintenance procedures, and financial health to ensure full compliance with our aviation regulations.

“The recent incidents have underscored the urgency of this matter, and it is imperative that swift and decisive action be taken to safeguard the interests of all stakeholders involved.”

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African automakers, minister, NADDC DG for June 27 Nigeria industry summit

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African automakers, minister, NADDC DG for June 27 Nigeria industry summit

A delegation of the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM) from South Africa is expected in Nigeria on June 27 this year to attend the maiden edition of the Nigeria Auto Industry Summit (NAISU).

The team will be joined by the Nigeria Association of Automotive Manufacturers (NAMA) team and other leading stakeholders to brainstorm on the sector’s development in the country and by extension Africa.

The organisers of the event, Nigeria Auto Journalists Association (NAJA), disclosed this in a statement, adding that it would be organised in partnership with the National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC).

Scheduled to hold at Radisson Hotel, Ikeja, Lagos, on Thursday, June 27th, 2024, the summit is envisioned as an annual flagship event of the country’s automotive industry to rally all stakeholders together to explore the great potential in the automotive sector for national development.

It said the maiden edition of the event would be declared open by the Minister of Industries, Trade and investment, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, under the theme ‘Reviving Nigeria’s Economy through the Automotive Sector’ .

It would have the NADDC Director General, Mr. Joseph Osannipin, as the chief host, it stated.

Commenting on the importance of the summit for the development of the country’s automotive sector, Chairman, organizing committee of NAISU, Femi Owoeye, said, “Initiating this summit is vital, especially at this moment in history, when Nigeria is struggling to map its way out of the prevailing global economic despair.

“Being one of the drivers of the global economy, the automobile industry, if given the necessary impetus in Nigeria, is capable of transforming the country to an automotive manufacturing hub in Africa.

“To this end, Nigeria Auto Industry Summit shall annually produce significant information that would help the government to make it happen.”

On his part, Chairman of NAJA, Mike Ochonma, said, “Significantly, the summit shall bridge the information and communication gap between the nation’s auto industry stakeholders and relevant government agencies.

“Moreover, annually, the summit shall give a single and united voice for the auto industry leaders to set developmental agenda aimed at kick-starting and driving relevant government policies towards a sustainable development of the automotive industry in Nigeria and ultimately position the country as a frontline beneficiary of the African Free Trade Agreement Area.”

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